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According to the model im looking at, it looks like deaths will stop almost completely in 2 or 3 weeks ? It looks like a huge decline in deaths almost every day from now until mid May.

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39 minutes ago, Snownado said:

According to the model im looking at, it looks like deaths will stop almost completely in 2 or 3 weeks ? It looks like a huge decline in deaths almost every day from now until mid May.

It has been having problems modeling the backside of the curve in other countries (too quick to bring deaths down).  The overall trend should gradually be down though, at least until we open things up.  Then all bets are off. 

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1 hour ago, RyanDe680 said:

Sort of a dumb question I guess.  Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation?  Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people?  What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article?  I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

The IL stay at home hasn't been going quite that long.  Besides that, our lockdown hasn't been as strict as what some other countries have done.  Also spread among family members who live together is one of the things that is harder to stop. 

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12 hours ago, sokolow said:

I don’t think there’s really any hard answers that I’ve heard, and I gather that the question is still an active topic of investigation for the flu. Podcast I was listening to points out its winter-summer seasonal in temperate latitudes, and appears to tend towards rainy / dry seasonal in tropical latitudes, although both types of climate regions experience flu epidemics, and at least in the places where they’d looked, the tropics may experience the same rates of infection. It may be related to there being a sweet spot for transmission as far as temp & humidity goes; they were also saying of course it may simply have a lot to do with how much time people tend to spend indoors and in close proximity to one another

With the ‘rona I think the word is no-one really knows how different transmission dynamics are to the flu.  The major spreading events that have been documented & studied were looked at by researchers in China, and they found that virtually all of the transmission cases they tracked were indoors but there were a bunch of caveats, namely its a shared environment right? And before indoor/outdoor come definitively into play you have to consider proximity, density of people, and time. IIRC it was pointed out that the study was done in a polity with strict stay-at-home and social distancing measures, so it doesnt rule out that the big factor might be, basically, crowding

I read that study also.  Even though it's not "conclusive"  there's a lot of plain old common sense in it.  It's pretty much coming out the length of time to exposure is exponentially related to the chance of someone who would not "normally" have severe complications as apposed if they contracted the virus by simply shaking hands with someone, to becoming severely ill.  The replication rate of this virus internally isn't extreme compared to others (Ebola doubles every 20 minutes).  But if you are consistently exposed hour by hour, day by day for a couple days the "number" of viruses that infiltrate over time overwhelm even  younger and/or healthy peoples immune system and can cause an immune inflammatory response requiring hospitalization.  It's being studied this is why folks on these cruise ships had such an adverse reaction to the virus with severe infections up to 5 times a town of similar size. This may be why there was a higher rate of severe infections in densely populated areas initially.  That church in Sacramento had a disproportionately large number of severe infections and deaths compared to people who may have been infected yet less exposed consistently.  It's probably why we've seen stories of young healthy hospital workers succumbing, the hi rates of police and other first responders succumbing.  These people that are higher than most to be in contact initially, they are higher than most to be in contact over and over again.  They are running much higher rates of being severely infected regardless of demographic.

  I really think there is a "dose" factor here simply because of the long incubation time.  Which once again brings us back to what?  TESTING TESTING.  

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Has anyone been able to find hand sanitizer?  I seriously think I'd have a much better shot at striking oil in my backyard right now. 

i’ve been cutting isopropanol with aloe vera gel 3:1

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What is up with all the name calling in here.  Anyone who doesn't agree with the stay at home order is a moron, idiot, <insert derogatory name here>.  We can disagree buy why all the name calling?

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5 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

What is up with all the name calling in here.  Anyone who doesn't agree with the stay at home order is a moron, idiot, <insert derogatory name here>.  We can disagree buy why all the name calling?

the only person that's been called a moron and idiot in the last 5 pages is the governor of Florida.  I don't see any other name calling recently and everyone seems civil.

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Anyone else paying attention to Crude today, what a dumpster fire for the oil industry. US crude hitting -$40 per barrel? Not easy to turn the tap off so to speak. Hard to fathom the long term economic implications COVID-19 is going to have on the world. 

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53 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Anyone else paying attention to Crude today, what a dumpster fire for the oil industry. US crude hitting -$40 per barrel? Not easy to turn the tap off so to speak. Hard to fathom the long term economic implications COVID-19 is going to have on the world. 

I bought BP.  

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1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Anyone else paying attention to Crude today, what a dumpster fire for the oil industry. US crude hitting -$40 per barrel? Not easy to turn the tap off so to speak. Hard to fathom the long term economic implications COVID-19 is going to have on the world. 

The media will jump on this story...  that is for a futures contract expiring tomorrow.  It's basically saying that in 2 days, the value of oil won't be any higher than it was last week.  If you look at crude oil, it's still in the $20s - granted that is still low, but the -$40 per barrel is just a ridiculous nonsense price .

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Whats left of North American crude(and South American fwiw) is expensive to refine. That is why real peak production occurred in 1970. The more you use of the sour, heavy stuff, the more expensive is should be, raising prices to match, which should eventually stop production when consumers say no more............but that is not what happened. Instead they ramped up production in 2017-18 despite not having pricing backing. It was done through funny finance. So this time, the sweet crude producers are going for the banks. Destroying credit lines will make them difficult to return until the price is high enough that large amounts of sour crude are needed again.

Debt based finance is a ponzi scheme and frankly, a real economy destroyer.

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Georgia is going to start opening up.  

It is a mathematical certainty that cases are going to start to increase after some period of time of being open.  You just want to keep it manageable as it is not acceptable to let it get to the point where even 1 person is turned away from getting treatment at a hospital.  The testing issue is still a real concern though because it may be harder to see hotspots coming.  I'm sure there will be a significant percentage of people who still won't go out much... sort of a self-imposed stay at home which would help keep the numbers lower than they would be compared to if everyone started living like they did in January.

 

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6 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

The media will jump on this story...  that is for a futures contract expiring tomorrow.  It's basically saying that in 2 days, the value of oil won't be any higher than it was last week.  If you look at crude oil, it's still in the $20s - granted that is still low, but the -$40 per barrel is just a ridiculous nonsense price .

Yea I saw May, June, July and so forth are all over $2, will be curious to see what June's contract actually subtle down to beginning tomorrow. 

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I'm very curious to see what Whitmers next update for Michigan will be. With April 30 just 9 days away, usually she will announce the next step several days in advance, or at least hint at it.

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40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm very curious to see what Whitmers next update for Michigan will be. With April 30 just 9 days away, usually she will announce the next step several days in advance, or at least hint at it.

Michigan is definitely on the downward swing with new confirmed cases (sufficient testing?) and deaths. If trends continue I do see Whitmer pulling back some of these restrictions. 

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A friend sent along this NYT letter which talks about happy hypoxics, and boy this excerpt really is “a day in the life”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

Quote

 

During my recent time at Bellevue, though, almost all the E.R. patients had Covid pneumonia. Within the first hour of my first shift I inserted breathing tubes into two patients.

Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia.

 

 

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Very bad day for MI unfortunately with 232 new deaths reported, I wonder if it's due to a lag in weekend reporting. I think there's an increase pretty much everywhere every Tuesday and Wednesday. 

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Very bad day for MI unfortunately with 232 new deaths reported, I wonder if it's due to a lag in weekend reporting. I think there's an increase pretty much everywhere every Tuesday and Wednesday. 

I'd say the weekend is definitely a factor.  Looking at weekly numbers instead of daily may be a better way of evaluating trends.

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Dipping in to the Illinois news conference and they are suggesting the Illinois peak may not be until mid May.  That's not good.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dipping in to the Illinois news conference and they are suggesting the Illinois peak may not be until mid May.  That's not good.

Things have sort of plateaued for a while now, so I find that hard to believe.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dipping in to the Illinois news conference and they are suggesting the Illinois peak may not be until mid May.  That's not good.

I find that hard to believe.  No one is of course forthcoming on what 'models' these are based on but again, I can't understand why if we have been in lockdown for over 5 weeks now, thats 35 days.  If this spreads for 14 days, whats going on with the continued rise in cases if we are 21 days past this.  It has to be more than families passing it around.  Hell, I have just been FaceTiming people.

Illinois just needs to up the testing.  Chicago is the 3rd biggest city in the country, yet we are behind Texas and Florida in testing?

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42 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Very bad day for MI unfortunately with 232 new deaths reported, I wonder if it's due to a lag in weekend reporting. I think there's an increase pretty much everywhere every Tuesday and Wednesday. 

So far today, the country is tracking below yesterday, which was below Sunday as well.

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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Things have sort of plateaued for a while now, so I find that hard to believe.

Yeah seems kinda strange.  

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10 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

So far today, the country is tracking below yesterday, which was below Sunday as well.

We are already well over 2k deaths on worldometers.  Or are you talking about cases?

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9 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Michigan is definitely on the downward swing with new confirmed cases (sufficient testing?) and deaths. If trends continue I do see Whitmer pulling back some of these restrictions. 

My thought is pulling back on some recreational things, with work opening up closer to May 15th or after Memorial Day.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My thought is pulling back on some recreational things, with work opening up closer to May 15th or after Memorial Day.

I agree but also think she might go a little farther.  Don't think it will be anywhere near a free for all but I suspect there will be limited things open up such a landscaping, nurseries/greenhouses, workers who are solo or maybe teams but not large groups.  Just my thoughts.  I guess we will see in a little over a week.

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