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8 hours ago, Stebo said:

No one really knows but if it follows the cold and flu viruses then it should be bad in winter. Maybe it doesn't and we get lucky but the comparative viruses usually explode then so I am not very hopeful.

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower.  The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

Yes, cases in the sun belt were exceptionally high. However, the fatality rate on those cases has been substantially lower as compared to the north east. Should add data shows the south seems to be improving and we have yet to see a correlating jump in deaths as seen further north. 

statistic_id1109004_rate-of-us-coronavirus--covid-19--cases-as-of-august-28-2020-by-state.png

statistic_id1109011_covid-19-death-rates-in-the-united-states-as-of-august-28-2020-by-state.png

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now.  That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator.  If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

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39 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Okay. Why is that relevant?

Just illustrating there’s still a cost to keeping virus numbers low that goes beyond economic numbers. 

 

46 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Pandemics are tough.  Sorry that those Taylor Swift concerts are cancelled.  

Sorry playing D&D in your moms basement is your standard coping mechanism. Life goes on as normal for you.
 

The bubonic plague that killed a quarter of Europe’s population was tough. Smallpox in the New World that killed up to 90% of Native populations was tough. Hell, the Spanish Flu that killed healthy young adults and was a death sentence for pregnant women was tough. If you think this pandemic is tough, I don’t know what to tell you. The self imposed economic and social impacts will cause more harm than this virus ever would have. 

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It seems that the countries are doing reasonably well economically are the ones that have covid more under control. Germany is doing relatively well economically for example. 
 

There is no major economy in the world doing nearly as well as the United States at the moment. We have almost returned to pre-COVID manufacturing numbers in durable goods (things built to last 3 years minimum).

The thing that truly is hurting the v-shaped recovery is the impact this is having on small businesses due to lockdowns. So while Wall Street companies do well and are able to manage costs, those with limited access to do different regions within this country are struggling mightily. Because of this it’s driving their prices down as big companies (such as mine) are able to demand lower costs since its slim pickings for some.

What do I know though, I only have an MBA and manage $75 Million in spend a year
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1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Everything is pretty much open.  Other than entertainment venues and some bars.

Foreclosure law firms aren’t. You’re not allowed to evict tenants or file lawsuits in New York State at all. My dads tenants haven’t paid rent in 6 months and he can’t do one single thing about it. 

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now.  That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator.  If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

Perhaps. I just like to post the real stats for folks to dissect as they currently stand. With regard to the NE quadrant and the sunbelt there are a whole slew of controversial topics that can be  unpacked: nursing homes, ventilators, lockdown vs no lockdowns, cases vs severity of cases, potential herd immunity, comparisons to sweden, state to state quarantines, age groups affected and so on and on  ad nausem as we all know. 

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20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Just illustrating there’s still a cost to keeping virus numbers low that goes beyond economic numbers. 

 

Sorry playing D&D in your moms basement is your standard coping mechanism. Life goes on as normal for you.
 

The bubonic plague that killed a quarter of Europe’s population was tough. Smallpox in the New World that killed up to 90% of Native populations was tough. Hell, the Spanish Flu that killed healthy young adults and was a death sentence for pregnant women was tough. If you think this pandemic is tough, I don’t know what to tell you. The self imposed economic and social impacts will cause more harm than this virus ever would have. 

Well then just **** it then. Im not sure why I bother. 

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18 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


There is no major economy in the world doing nearly as well as the United States at the moment. We have almost returned to pre-COVID manufacturing numbers in durable goods (things built to last 3 years minimum).

The thing that truly is hurting the v-shaped recovery is the impact this is having on small businesses due to lockdowns. So while Wall Street companies do well and are able to manage costs, those with limited access to do different regions within this country are struggling mightily. Because of this it’s driving their prices down as big companies (such as mine) are able to demand lower costs since its slim pickings for some.

What do I know though, I only have an MBA and manage $75 Million in spend a year

Their gdp fall and unemployment numbers are better than the us. 

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

Yes, cases in the sun belt were exceptionally high. However, the fatality rate on those cases has been substantially lower as compared to the north east. Should add data shows the south seems to be improving and we have yet to see a correlating jump in deaths as seen further north. 

statistic_id1109004_rate-of-us-coronavirus--covid-19--cases-as-of-august-28-2020-by-state.png

statistic_id1109011_covid-19-death-rates-in-the-united-states-as-of-august-28-2020-by-state.png

Yes the fatality rate is much lower because hospitals now know how to treat the virus compared to March and April. Plus we know now that the CDC's guidelines of putting patients into senior living centers is a horrible plan. That alone killed thousands in the northeast and midwest.

3 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

I specifically took issue with you stating the south will continue to get “sicker and sicker”, which actual data shows is beyond ignorant. 

The data is showing that the case numbers per capita are still much higher down there. The only reason the actual numbers are not higher is because of lack of testing whether the people aren't getting the tests or there just aren't enough tests being done. These are literal facts.

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower.  The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.

Yeah I agree and maybe this will be a trend that keeps those viruses down this year because we are all masked up, at least all of us rational people.

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2 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Everything is pretty much open.  Other than entertainment venues and some bars.

This pretty much is it, outside of a few narrow sects of the country like gyms and theaters there really isn't anything closed. There may not be physical locations open to the public but business is being done pretty much everywhere.

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53 minutes ago, Stebo said:.

The data is showing that the case numbers per capita are still much higher down there. The only reason the actual numbers are not higher is because of lack of testing whether the people aren't getting the tests or there just aren't enough tests being done. These are literal facts.

 

https://www.tmc.edu
 

Take a look through that data. That is for the largest health care system in Houston. You’re still wrong.

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

We could shut down the economy every flu season then.... influenza is often global. People die too.

How many deaths does it take for you to side with shutting everything down?

In case you haven't heard, there's a vaccine for the flu.  I get it every year.

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Infected per capita is currently higher in the south than the north thats just not debatable. 

 

Screenshot_20200830-155105_Chrome.jpg

 

 

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Things are objectively getting better in the south currently though. 

Im not arguing that. I am contradicting his claim that nobody in the south is taking the precautions they need to and they will continue to get "sicker and sicker". Both of those claims are not true. 

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2 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

Just illustrating there’s still a cost to keeping virus numbers low that goes beyond economic numbers. 

 

Sorry playing D&D in your moms basement is your standard coping mechanism. Life goes on as normal for you.
 

The bubonic plague that killed a quarter of Europe’s population was tough. Smallpox in the New World that killed up to 90% of Native populations was tough. Hell, the Spanish Flu that killed healthy young adults and was a death sentence for pregnant women was tough. If you think this pandemic is tough, I don’t know what to tell you. The self imposed economic and social impacts will cause more harm than this virus ever would have. 

I just went hiking for the past few hours.  My coping mechanism is the great outdoors.  You should try it sometime.  I'm sorry you can't get drunk in a crowded bar or go to a concert right now.  It's a tough sacrifice, I know.  But this too shall pass.

Had Covid hit us in 1918, it would be worse than the Spanish Flu.  Comparing pandemics that occurred eons ago -- when medicine was very primitive and we had very little understanding of pathogens - makes your argument weak.

The state of the economy is basically tied to how well the virus is controlled at this point.  This talk of "lockdowns" makes me believe that you still think it's April and Karen still can't get her nails done.

 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

I know this has long been known, but CDC just confirmed only 6% of covid deaths had no pre existing conditions. 

https://nbc25news.com/news/local/cdc-94-of-covid-19-deaths-had-underlying-medical-conditions

Thats actually not what the cdc site says. It says that covid is the only cause mentioned in 6 percent of cases. Pneumonia or ARDS being mentioned along with covid would fall into that 94 percent. 

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1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I just went hiking for the past few hours.  My coping mechanism is the great outdoors.  You should try it sometime.  I'm sorry you can't get drunk in a crowded bar or go to a concert right now.  It's a tough sacrifice, I know.  But this too shall pass.

Had Covid hit us in 1918, it would be worse than the Spanish Flu.  Comparing pandemics that occurred eons ago -- when medicine was very primitive and we had very little understanding of pathogens - makes your argument weak.

The state of the economy is basically tied to how well the virus is controlled at this point.  This talk of "lockdowns" makes me believe that you still think it's April and Karen still can't get her nails done.

 

It is mine as well. I haven't drank for over three years. I do, however, also enjoy going to concerts, sporting events, the gym, etc etc. People who get their satisfaction from the outdoors are, unfortunately, the exception to the rule in our country. And, the mental health aspect of the shutdowns goes way beyond entertainment into kids spending most of their time at home, distance learning, and diminished socialization in general. 

It's not as different as you think it is. We had a several month period where we didn't know how in the world to treat Covid, and provably actually killed some people by putting them on ventilators. Covid has never killed young healthy people like the Spanish Flu did, who were actually at a higher risk than those with weaker immune systems. You're correct though, it is all hypotheticals. I tend to think if Covid had hit in 1918 most of the country would have caught it during the initial outbreak and it would have been considered a bad flu season. There's a huge number of cases in this country that people didn't know they had until they got tested. That wouldn't have changed. 

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16 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

 

 

Im not arguing that. I am contradicting his claim that nobody in the south is taking the precautions they need to and they will continue to get "sicker and sicker". Both of those claims are not true. 

The testing numbers have plummeted but the positivity rates aren't dropping as quickly as the testing rate so yes they are still getting sicker and sicker. If there was a true testing amount done the numbers in the south would be huge. That is why the per capita is through the roof across the south.

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30 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Things are objectively getting better in the south currently though. 

Better yes but still no where near the rate of the north or northeast and the numbers are still misleading down south because of the numbers of testing falling through the floor.

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Just now, schoeppeya said:

It is mine as well. I haven't drank for over three years. I do, however, also enjoy going to concerts, sporting events, the gym, etc etc. People who get their satisfaction from the outdoors are, unfortunately, the exception to the rule in our country. And, the mental health aspect of the shutdowns goes way beyond entertainment into kids spending most of their time at home, distance learning, and diminished socialization in general. 

It's not as different as you think it is. We had a several month period where we didn't know how in the world to treat Covid, and provably actually killed some people by putting them on ventilators. Covid has never killed young healthy people like the Spanish Flu did, who were actually at a higher risk than those with weaker immune systems. You're correct though, it is all hypotheticals. I tend to think if Covid had hit in 1918 most of the country would have caught it during the initial outbreak and it would have been considered a bad flu season. There's a huge number of cases in this country that people didn't know they had until they got tested. That wouldn't have changed. 

The prevailing theory for the mortality of Spanish flu is a high prevalence of secondary bacterial infections which would have been more treatable today. 

The spanish flu still hit in 3 or 4 waves over a few years. 

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I will say the numbers have gotten better since the mask mandates even if the mask usage isn't what it is in the north or northeast.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Better yes but still no where near the rate of the north or northeast and the numbers are still misleading down south because of the numbers of testing falling through the floor.

I think the southern wave peaked last month. Excess death data seems to suggest that. Rt numbers are generally below 1 there. The case numbers aren't the only thing to look at...hospitalizations have been falling and deaths started falling a few weeks ago. Can that be maintained with school starting? Maybe not. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I think the southern wave peaked last month. Excess death data seems to suggest that. Rt numbers are generally below 1 there. The case numbers aren't the only thing to look at...hospitalizations have been falling and deaths started falling a few weeks ago. Can that be maintained with school starting? Maybe not. 

That is my concern especially with southern colleges and universities doing a lot of in person education. We are already seeing some large numbers showing up.

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11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The testing numbers have plummeted but the positivity rates aren't dropping as quickly as the testing rate so yes they are still getting sicker and sicker. If there was a true testing amount done the numbers in the south would be huge. That is why the per capita is through the roof across the south.

Literally everything you just claimed in that sentence is false.

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31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The prevailing theory for the mortality of Spanish flu is a high prevalence of secondary bacterial infections which would have been more treatable today. 

The spanish flu still hit in 3 or 4 waves over a few years. 

Sure, but there are also plenty of accounts of young adults going from healthy to dead in a 24 hour period from the Spanish Flu. That doesn't happen to healthy young adults from Covid. There is also a hypothesis that older populations had some antibody protection from the Russian Flu in 1890, but nothing conclusive. 

The point I was making was that even comparing the time period when we really didn't have an answer for Covid, the Spanish Flu was more deadly.

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35 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Literally everything you just claimed in that sentence is false.

I posted this a couple days ago. This is testing through August 23 by state.

statistic_id1111716_number-of-covid-19-tests-conducted-in-the-us-as-of-august-23-2020-by-state (1).png

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34 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Literally everything you just claimed in that sentence is false.

No it isn't and idk what your vested interest is in misinformation but around here we deal in facts.

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