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Very good results here in nyc..

New York City on Tuesday released more than 1.46 million coronavirus antibody test results, the largest number to date, providing more evidence of how the virus penetrated deeply into some lower-income communities while passing more lightly across affluent parts of the city.

In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent.

Across the city, more than 27 percent of those tested had positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate was the Bronx, at 33 percent. Manhattan had the lowest rate, at 19 percent.

 The data is likely to renew discussion about whether some neighborhoods or communities in New York City may be nearing herd immunity — the point at which enough people have immunity that the virus is no longer able to spread widely within a community.

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More good news..

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.

 

But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

“I’m quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”

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Herd immunity only "works" (I put that in quotes because of the price to pay to achieve it) if reinfection can't happen or is very rare.  Like I said a while back, we are going to start to get a better answer on the reinfection potential simply by having the NYC schools reopen since so many in that city have already had it.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Herd immunity only "works" (I put that in quotes because of the price to pay to achieve it) if reinfection can't happen or is very rare.  Like I said a while back, we are going to start to get a better answer on the reinfection potential simply by having the NYC schools reopen since so many in that city have already had it.

Yes we paid a heavy price here. Also what's interesting in the article is that 32% of those 17 and under had antibodies ( highest of any age group as i have assumed all along) and that number could be higher as it is the the least tested age group. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens when schools open which seems like it will be delayed as the teachers union are fighting the city and said they will strike unless every child is tested prior to reopening.

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30 minutes ago, binbisso said:

More good news..

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.

 

But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

“I’m quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”

Yup.

Just about every country or state graph looks the same for a reason.

I'm lucky that our school district is going with face to face. Many districts got screwed on this one.

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3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Most college is anymore. I mean there are obviously some majors that require to be there in person, but at Bowling Green I did all my exams, turned in all papers, quizzes and other assignments online. I did a 12-12-9 setup so I took 3 classes in the summer and then 4 classes each semester in person. Online classes helped considerably with my internships.

Honestly with the exception of the classes that were heavier on math, I really didn't notice a discernible difference between online and regular. IMO high schools need to adopt this, it's absurd how low tech our 9-12 system is in this country. This isn't the 1970s for heavens sake. 

Truthfully this is the issue with colleges, you're telling kids it's safe for them to live in close quarters with people because they have an extremely small chance of dying, but when it comes to playing sports, attending parties or bars, it's too dangerous? That's an absurd argument and 18-30 year olds really don't care anymore to be honest. 

Virtual is fine for college indefinitely. The cost needs to drop, the current rate of tuition increases aren't sustainable with or without COVID. 

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A governor complaining about media coverage or another political party is not appropriate for this thread.  Please refrain from mentioning political figures unless it is truly something substantive/newsworthy.  

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Well, despite our best efforts (wearing masks, avoiding eat-in restaurants/bars - in fact pretty much not going anywhere except work, washing and sanitizing hands, cleaning surfaces, doing pretty much all shopping via delivery or curbside pick-up), my fiancée and I have tested positive (we are both 34, BTW). I had one day the week before last where I felt kind of "bleh" and developed a nagging cough, then lost my sense of taste and smell.

She went to the doctor for an unrelated reason a week ago today, and they found her blood pressure was very high so they sent her to the ER. They wanted to admit her and administered a COVID-19 test as a pre-admission precaution. She tested positive and was admitted to a room in the COVID unit (no visitors, full PPE for providers, etc). Her blood pressure came down and they sent her home on Saturday, but it was only after that that she really developed recognizable COVID-19 symptoms including a persistent headache (at times really bad, according to her) and a hacking cough that appeared whenever she tried to lie down, but mostly went away when she sat up. Meanwhile, I got tested last week Friday and got a call on Sunday that I had tested positive.

Then yesterday I took her to urgent care because her headaches were continuing and she felt extremely lethargic (could barely muster the energy to dress after taking a shower, and could barely talk). They did a chest X-ray and found she does have pneumonia in both lungs, although she has not had the shortness of breath/chest tightness reported in many cases. I took her back to the ER and she was admitted to the hospital once again. Thankfully she reports feeling better today and if that holds they should send her home tomorrow.

I feel pretty much fine now and my taste and smell have started to come back, more noticeably today than before. I still have an occasional fit of coughing, but nothing that couldn't easily be mistaken for an ordinary cold or allergies.

FWIW neither of us have ever had a fever, so temperature screenings are pretty much useless...

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Sorry to hear man, at least you two are doing well all things considered. This post should be a note for those who are still thinking it is no big deal or only impacts old people.

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50 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Sorry to hear man, at least you two are doing well all things considered. This post should be a note for those who are still thinking it is no big deal or only impacts old people.

Thanks. My biggest fear was always that it would hit her pretty hard since she has diabetes and is immunocompromised. Thankfully (so far) she has not had any respiratory distress and her oxygen levels are near normal despite the pneumonia, so the hospitalization was more of a precaution than a necessity.

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Parties, missteps and slow testing: How Notre Dame's COVID-19 plan unraveled

 

SOUTH BEND – In May, the president of the University of Notre Dame, the Rev. John Jenkins, insisted that despite a growing number of coronavirus cases locally and across the country, it was “worth the risk” to bring students back to campus for the fall.

“We have availed ourselves of the best medical advice and scientific information available and are assiduously planning a reopening that will make the campus community as safe as possible,” Jenkins wrote in an op-ed piece for the New York Times. “We believe the good of educating students and continuing vital research is very much worth the remaining risk.”

One week into the fall semester, the plan unraveled.

Students partied. Others didn’t follow safety protocols. Cases immediately spiked. And the university wasn’t ready for the outbreak. Some students reported that calls to the university’s COVID hotline went unanswered. Many complained about waiting days to get tested on campus. Others relayed stories about a lack of preparation at quarantine areas the university had set up. Some professors were outraged they weren’t notified that students in their classes had tested positive.

 

More...

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/education/parties-missteps-and-slow-testing-how-notre-dames-covid-19-plan-unraveled/article_30c4f5a6-e26d-11ea-a12a-af1bffb3d946.html

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16 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Thanks. My biggest fear was always that it would hit her pretty hard since she has diabetes and is immunocompromised. Thankfully (so far) she has not had any respiratory distress and her oxygen levels are near normal despite the pneumonia, so the hospitalization was more of a precaution than a necessity.

I should add that "precaution" was made possible because we both have health insurance and the hospitals in this area are not flooded with critical COVID patients...there are some but they had plenty of room for her.

When my friend Dan got it back in March they wanted to send him home right away even though he was burning up and couldn't keep anything down. Ended up spending 10 days on a ventilator. Much is still unknown about the virus and the disease, but much has been learned since then.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Parties, missteps and slow testing: How Notre Dame's COVID-19 plan unraveled

 

SOUTH BEND – In May, the president of the University of Notre Dame, the Rev. John Jenkins, insisted that despite a growing number of coronavirus cases locally and across the country, it was “worth the risk” to bring students back to campus for the fall.

“We have availed ourselves of the best medical advice and scientific information available and are assiduously planning a reopening that will make the campus community as safe as possible,” Jenkins wrote in an op-ed piece for the New York Times. “We believe the good of educating students and continuing vital research is very much worth the remaining risk.”

One week into the fall semester, the plan unraveled.

Students partied. Others didn’t follow safety protocols. Cases immediately spiked. And the university wasn’t ready for the outbreak. Some students reported that calls to the university’s COVID hotline went unanswered. Many complained about waiting days to get tested on campus. Others relayed stories about a lack of preparation at quarantine areas the university had set up. Some professors were outraged they weren’t notified that students in their classes had tested positive.

 

More...

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/education/parties-missteps-and-slow-testing-how-notre-dames-covid-19-plan-unraveled/article_30c4f5a6-e26d-11ea-a12a-af1bffb3d946.html

This is literally the most predictable thing one could imagine. Obviously if you bring students back to campus they are going to act like college students and party and get drunk and try to have the college experience. You only get to be an undergrad once after all.

I don't care how many precautions you try to scheme up in your mind, the college setting is just not built to contain the virus. Is the risk worth it? Seems like many are saying no and deferring from starting college or taking a year off.

If I were in the student's shoes I would take a year off rather than doing virtual.

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Per the Notre Dame dashboard, the latest number is 336 confirmed cases out of 2035 tests.

I wonder how these college cases are assigned though?  Do they automatically count as part of that county's total or is it assigned to the person's home county?  I know that people who have been tested while on vacation had it added into the total in their home county, not the vacation county, but obviously with college you are away from home a lot longer.

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On 8/19/2020 at 8:34 PM, Stebo said:

Sorry to hear man, at least you two are doing well all things considered. This post should be a note for those who are still thinking it is no big deal or only impacts old people.

:clap:

 

you forgot to throw obese in there too...

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Really, these lockdowns are getting old after a few people test positive. They shouldn't have started classes if they were that "concerned". Its just delaying herd immunity and opening up a chance Covid mutates to even a nastier form to infect and kill more people. Its just a cold in general. Anything over 300000 deaths should be viewed as a tragedy considering the number of lockdowns, restrictions and mask orders.

Listen, the disease sucks. Its new and that means compared to 10 years from now, it is more deadly. But you can't have "safe" in this realm.

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On 8/19/2020 at 9:34 PM, Stebo said:

Sorry to hear man, at least you two are doing well all things considered. This post should be a note for those who are still thinking it is no big deal or only impacts old people.

It does generally impact high risk people

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I know there have been questions with the number of tests being performed as well as the hospital data, but if the trends are indeed real, then I think we could see deaths start coming down.  Unfortunately I believe it will be very gradual and may still average like 800 per day in the "trough"... maybe a bit lower if we're lucky.  I'm afraid it will be short lived though because it's going to be tough to keep driving the case numbers down with more things opening up (namely schools), growing pandemic fatigue and fall weather.

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https://nypost.com/2020/08/22/air-conditioned-rooms-help-spread-covid-19-research-shows/

Air-conditioned rooms help spread COVID-19, research shows

In more humid rooms, virus droplets become heavier and fall faster in higher humidity, “providing less chances for other people to breathe in infectious viral droplets,” the team wrote, according to DW, a German news website.

Dry air makes the droplets shrink and hang around, becoming what the scientists describe as an “optimal route” for transmission.

Low humidity also dries out mucous membranes in the nose, making an easier way in for the coronavirus, they wrote.

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13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

1660 new cases in Indiana today. Also saw that Iowa has a positivity rate of over 21 percent.

The 1660 are not all "new." Per the state dashboard, almost 1000 of those are older results that were added in to the cumulative total.

 

Today, 16,215 antigen tests and 975 positive cases from July 28 through August 22 are being added to the cumulative reports. Moving forward, antigen cases and testing from the most recent 24-hour period will be included in the daily reports. Tests and cases from prior to July 28 will be added to the cumulative reports once they are verified.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

The 1660 are not all "new." Per the state dashboard, almost 1000 of those are older results that were added in to the cumulative total.

 

Today, 16,215 antigen tests and 975 positive cases from July 28 through August 22 are being added to the cumulative reports. Moving forward, antigen cases and testing from the most recent 24-hour period will be included in the daily reports. Tests and cases from prior to July 28 will be added to the cumulative reports once they are verified.

Thanks for information and correction. Wondering why more tests aren’t being done in Iowa with the troubling pos percentage, but they are coming off a terrible natural disaster which I’m sure impacted everything.

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Oahu has just moved back to stay-at-home orders closing down most non-essential businesses again. We were nearly the lightest hit on the first wave but have had a surge in cases over the last month. They have made some pretty questionable moves leading up to this step back - they started by closing beaches and hiking trails ... as has been well covered, the great outdoors is not exactly the place this thing likes to spread widely. They did close down bars at the same time. Next move they made was to say no gatherings over 5 people but without any real way to enforce so it wasn't really a practical change in any meaningful way.

With the new stay at home, personal services are closed, restaurants are take out only, gyms closed again.

Has any other area moved backward this far in terms of their reopening?

 

They did it not just because of cases going up but also because the pace  was straining the local healthcare resources so they needed to do something. It's frustrating to see them take away good outlets like the beach and hiking rather than tackle high risk indoor settings under their initial set of new restrictions. Their rationale was that they didn't want to impact the already struggling businesses. Unfortunately delaying important restrictions just allowed the case number to keep rising which will also mean it's longer and more difficult to bring back down to a reasonable level.

The covid fatigue is real.

 

At least it seems like things are mostly heading in a better direction in the US as a whole for the most part.

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3 hours ago, mattb65 said:

Oahu has just moved back to stay-at-home orders closing down most non-essential businesses again. We were nearly the lightest hit on the first wave but have had a surge in cases over the last month. They have made some pretty questionable moves leading up to this step back - they started by closing beaches and hiking trails ... as has been well covered, the great outdoors is not exactly the place this thing likes to spread widely. They did close down bars at the same time. Next move they made was to say no gatherings over 5 people but without any real way to enforce so it wasn't really a practical change in any meaningful way.

With the new stay at home, personal services are closed, restaurants are take out only, gyms closed again.

Has any other area moved backward this far in terms of their reopening?

 

They did it not just because of cases going up but also because the pace  was straining the local healthcare resources so they needed to do something. It's frustrating to see them take away good outlets like the beach and hiking rather than tackle high risk indoor settings under their initial set of new restrictions. Their rationale was that they didn't want to impact the already struggling businesses. Unfortunately delaying important restrictions just allowed the case number to keep rising which will also mean it's longer and more difficult to bring back down to a reasonable level.

The covid fatigue is real.

 

At least it seems like things are mostly heading in a better direction in the US as a whole for the most part.

This is the entire problem. Beaches and hiking are essential to clear your mind and relax. We went too far in our initial shutdowns and fatigued the Continental US into not giving a damn. Lol only places like the NE, Chicago, Detroit really care about this. I think it's most reflected in college football/racing where you have the Big 10 shut down and a fanless Indy 500, yet the SEC and NASCAR are both having fans in attendance

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You can make an argument for the initial shutdowns being more tailored than they were, but hindsight is 20/20.  It was a new virus and we were flying blind.  

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You can make an argument for the initial shutdowns being more tailored than they were, but hindsight is 20/20.  It was a new virus and we were flying blind.  

Exactly and if anything we reacted too slowly initially.

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