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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This. 

otoh we should probably stop all the grown men sleeping naked chatter....

:D

but for fun....just picture the faces you know in here vs what you think we all look like.....then sans clothing.

enjoy the chuckle...

this is my guess for Sauss. (this is just for fun.  love ya bro!!) Hope that former softball slayin daughter of yours is doing well now that shes all graduated n stuff.  

Sleeping on the beach - Royalty-free Men Stock Photo

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

otoh we should probably stop all the grown men sleeping naked chatter....

:D

but for fun....just picture the faces you know in here vs what you think we all look like.....then sans clothing.

enjoy the chuckle...

this is my guess for Sauss. (this is just for fun.  love ya bro!!) Hope that former softball slayin daughter of yours is doing well now that shes all graduated n stuff.  

Sleeping on the beach - Royalty-free Men Stock Photo

Thats me on the banks of the mighty Susquehanna.

she doing well, other then she needs a job :) 

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5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

We have an ongoing outbreak at a nursing facility that’s going to cause numbers to rise pretty quick. Sullivan has next to no cases and is skewing NCPA numbers.

I just listened to the 2PM call and Lancaster is having a community spread situation.....only 25% of their cases are nursing home.  A bit of surprising info. 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just listened to the 2PM call and Lancaster is having a community spread situation.....only 25% of their cases are nursing home.  A bit of surprising info. 

Wow....

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The difference between the Euro and GFS for the weekend comes down a choice between insane and more insane. The GFS has been dumping the core of the 500mb PV right over PA while the Euro has been swinging it through NY State. Going to be crazy cold for mid-May either way, but the difference would be the core of the 500mb would provide the best instability for the rain/snow/grapuel showers that are sure to develop with daytime heating. The 500mb air at the core of the PV is progged at -40ºC, which I'm not sure if that is some kind of record over this part of the US but it's def not often you see air at that level that cold even in the winter. I'm pretty sure it would be the coldest ever observed in May over the northeastern US. 

Gonna have the watch the coastal wave later Friday too, the sharper GFS has the low going more underneath and has what looks like a bit stronger of a system. Would likely make a potentially more snowy scenario in the higher elevations of western and possibly even central PA with that 500mb low dropping. The system is also timed later Friday into Sat evening so it would take the strong sun out of the equation. A wet snow bomb is def on the table in the higher ground. Either in interior PA and/or upstate NY.   

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2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Shouldn’t there be more precip on those models considering placement of 992 low?

Hah 18z NAM must think so. That's not even done at 84 hours. Welcome to happy hour in May I guess. 

nam-218-all-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-9004000.thumb.png.85f214a6ef9ce87b0f6d17afd0c6e6a6.png

nam-218-all-pennsylvania-instant_ptype_3hr-9004000.thumb.png.cb0921c71949e0c715d3f74a55489b21.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Does anyone know of definitive records for standard stations as to the latest accumulating snow?

I'm not sure on definitive dates. I would imagine more stations than you might think have recorded a T in May, but as far as measurable? Aside from likely KJST and KBFD I don't know offhand who else. Any measurable more than a trace in the LSV is likely uncharted territory in at least the last several decades. 

As far as may snowstorms, May 9-10, 1977 apparently had one in Upstate New York and southern New England.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2016/05/09/on-this-day-in-1977-the-weather-was-bad-as-in-13-inches-of-snow-in-worcester-bad

1047126923_may-1977-snow-totals-fdlarge.png.397098ddfb33b5b7091d71868f8970fb.png

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm not sure on definitive dates. I would imagine more stations than you might think have recorded a T in May, but as far as measurable? Aside from likely KJST and KBFD I don't know offhand who else. Any measurable more than a trace in the LSV is likely uncharted territory in at least the last several decades. 

As far as may snowstorms, May 9-10, 1977 apparently had one in Upstate New York and southern New England.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2016/05/09/on-this-day-in-1977-the-weather-was-bad-as-in-13-inches-of-snow-in-worcester-bad

1047126923_may-1977-snow-totals-fdlarge.png.397098ddfb33b5b7091d71868f8970fb.png

Thanks, so as depicted this would be a historical event. 

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25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm not sure on definitive dates. I would imagine more stations than you might think have recorded a T in May, but as far as measurable? Aside from likely KJST and KBFD I don't know offhand who else. Any measurable more than a trace in the LSV is likely uncharted territory in at least the last several decades. 

As far as may snowstorms, May 9-10, 1977 apparently had one in Upstate New York and southern New England.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2016/05/09/on-this-day-in-1977-the-weather-was-bad-as-in-13-inches-of-snow-in-worcester-bad

1047126923_may-1977-snow-totals-fdlarge.png.397098ddfb33b5b7091d71868f8970fb.png

How great to see a map that shows off my reminiscing from 2 days ago!  There's the trace of snow over northern NJ which fell during the afternoon of May 9th.  I had no idea there was a huge snow accumulation in central Mass from this event, but I do know it was super cold for May.  The timing looks great from the NAM for picking up maybe more than a trace since some of it looks to fall after sunset Friday evening.  Thanks for the heads up and this map!!

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Hah 18z NAM must think so. That's not even done at 84 hours. Welcome to happy hour in May I guess. 

nam-218-all-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-9004000.thumb.png.85f214a6ef9ce87b0f6d17afd0c6e6a6.png

nam-218-all-pennsylvania-instant_ptype_3hr-9004000.thumb.png.cb0921c71949e0c715d3f74a55489b21.png

 

Yes!

I would pay to see the next 12 hours of the NAM if it existed!

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Lycoming County Corners daily report.

NUMBERS FROM THE WEEKEND (5/2-3):

Sat: 13 new cases (84)

Sun: 1 new case (85) + 2 official deaths (4)

Today: 1 new case (86)

Still no accurate numbers on recovered cases.

See you tomorrow.

"Protecting The Living Through The Investigation Of Death"

13 new cases was mostly from nursing home.

 

Some beautiful days...but they are a little chilly. Guess I will be firing the coal stove up tonight.

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7 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Thats me on the banks of the mighty Susquehanna.

she doing well, other then she needs a job :) 

Your nips would be pointing today :lol: Nice working weather.

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The 18z GFS manages to keep the Friday evening storm under us. It keeps the best snow in MD & VA.

At this point, my trusty handbook says to take the compromise solution run of the 18z NAM!

Here is the 18z GFS just for entertainment.

 

01291F39-6CC2-4B75-ADA8-ADAFC39BD5E8.png

CE2F2CB4-4FB5-439F-A2AC-4A6450C6CE38.png

BA897521-EA78-4EDC-86B6-FD4473DB4C0E.png

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Lol 0z NAM doesn't have the really heavy amounts but it snows on the whole Sus Valley and gets flakes down to the I-95 corridor in central VA. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol 0z NAM doesn't have the really heavy amounts but it snows on the whole Sus Valley and gets flakes down to the I-95 corridor in central VA. 

Sign me up for some CTP snow history, especially in the LSV ! Wow!

I would be thrilled just to see some snow in the air over the next few days, but this would be incredible.

This 0z NAM run was the best way for me to end my birthday!

 

3452381D-C583-4506-ADDA-992C0428074F.png

64810669-B39D-4B1B-A39B-654298E3CA04.png

0CDB4A83-D15F-47A9-9242-BF708AC7C3D1.png

3CE62EF7-AFCE-4B6B-AEC2-41743753CC0D.png

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The 0z & 6z GFS continued to push the best snow south of CTP on Friday night. The 0z Canadian & Euro keep the snow confined to northern & western PA. 

However, the good old 6z NAM continued to deliver snow to most of CTP, including the LSV!  The NAM is still a compromise solution between the major global models.

 

BBB67DA7-56B7-425C-B729-003062BAEE55.png

500BFFA3-AD7D-4DA2-9E4E-55D01A4A1C7A.png

A76BE3BD-FD74-4352-A049-42B6D9CCAF9F.png

3B1668DE-CCFE-47DE-A5AD-04B3C2A26093.png

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12 minutes ago, Old Bones said:

Moderate snow in Rockton Area this morning.


.

I was just about to comment that I saw it falling on the 511pa camera at the Penfield/153 exit up there.

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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z & 6z GFS continued to push the best snow south of CTP on Friday night. The 0z Canadian & Euro keep the snow confined to northern & western PA. 

However, the good old 6z NAM continued to deliver snow to most of CTP, including the LSV!  The NAM is still a compromise solution between the major global models.

 

BBB67DA7-56B7-425C-B729-003062BAEE55.png

500BFFA3-AD7D-4DA2-9E4E-55D01A4A1C7A.png

A76BE3BD-FD74-4352-A049-42B6D9CCAF9F.png

3B1668DE-CCFE-47DE-A5AD-04B3C2A26093.png

I'll take a couple of inches in May!

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47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Nam.  Shows snow accumulated but temps do not match so not sure about that though they do fall below freezing after the qpf has left.

 

image.thumb.png.8fd4c04872cc2e0545837249f32bb844.png

image.thumb.png.310412e59f2306238f35346960603dc2.png

NAM seems to still be well out to lunch here. Thinking something not too dissimilar from a blend of everything would make sense here. 

 

Which means uh...2-4? Still ridiculous for time of year.

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