Itstrainingtime Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 What is Cumberland county doing that Lancaster isn't? I remember when Cumberland had 12 confirmed cases and Lancaster was at 2... Today, Lancaster is at 232 and Cumberland is at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 3, 2020 Author Share Posted April 3, 2020 5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Yikes Williamsport only had 7.7 in 15-16? Yup lol, that just shows how much of a one hit wonder the Jan 2016 blizzard was for that winter and how it divided our area and left some of us nearly high and dry. H-burg would've had a 9-10" season without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yup lol, that just shows how much of a one hit wonder the Jan 2016 blizzard was for that winter and how it divided our area and left some of us nearly high and dry. H-burg would've had a 9-10" season without it. Lol yeah we ended up with less than an inch from that bad boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: What is Cumberland county doing that Lancaster isn't? I remember when Cumberland had 12 confirmed cases and Lancaster was at 2... Today, Lancaster is at 232 and Cumberland is at 45. Severe lack of tests here and Lancaster has a good bit of Philly workers so community spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: What is Cumberland county doing that Lancaster isn't? I remember when Cumberland had 12 confirmed cases and Lancaster was at 2... Today, Lancaster is at 232 and Cumberland is at 45. We have more here in the Skook than Cumberland County. I wonder if it's that we are sandwiched between Allentown and Hazleton. Two fast growing hot spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 4, 2020 Author Share Posted April 4, 2020 We've been generally lucky in this section of the state so far. Blair only had 4 cases reported as of today and we do have a testing site in Altoona. Centre's the county in this region with the most (32) and all things considered that's probably doing okay as well. PSU's spring break was Mar 8-14 and when they suspended in person classes in the middle of that week they pretty much haven't allowed any on-campus students to come back. I'm certainly hopeful those actions may have mitigated what could've been a much bigger outbreak considering 30-35k students with a sizeable number of international students as well as I'm sure, a pretty decent amount that hail from the tri-state area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 14 hours ago, canderson said: Severe lack of tests here and Lancaster has a good bit of Philly workers so community spread. After I posted I saw on WGAL that nearly half of Lanco's cases are in retirement and nursing homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 8 so far in Lycoming Co. think we have a couple of testing stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Pennsylvania tops 10,000 positive cases on Saturday, jumping nearly 1,600 since Friday... https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-saturday-update-20200404-epomznrqjze3tckcb4top3gin4-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 The stats for PA 2 days ago (on 4/2) were 7,016 positive cases and 90 deaths. 48 hours later, we're at 10,017 positive cases with 136 deaths...an increase of over 40% for both stats in just 2 days! Scary. The upward slope continues to steepen with each passing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: The stats for PA 2 days ago (on 4/2) were 7,016 positive cases and 90 deaths. 48 hours later, we're at 10,017 positive cases with 136 deaths...an increase of over 40% for both stats in just 2 days! Scary. The upward slope continues to steepen with each passing day. Yup I have idiot friends saying their early May trip to Disney is still happening. We have airfare to Dallas Wednesday. I need to remember to cancel that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Yup I have idiot friends saying their early May trip to Disney is still happening. We have airfare to Dallas Wednesday. I need to remember to cancel that lol. We have reservations for the Outer Banks in mid June and I've pretty much written that off from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Considering how long it's taking Italy and the rest of Europe to turn the corner, I'm about ready to write off most of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 18 hours ago, Voyager said: Considering how long it's taking Italy and the rest of Europe to turn the corner, I'm about ready to write off most of the summer. They have to get the antibody test going as no vaccine means we would literally run into 2021 with this issue until we can determine who has had it and can move about more freely. This is all assuming immunity after your body deals with it the first time. The case can be made that some people may try to contract this on purpose so they can be among the earlier people who "go back to work" in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 People are already edgy...as said in New England thread...right or wrong if people are on lockdown indefinitely through June it’s going to start getting uglier for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Lancaster county is BLOWING up...371 confirmed cases, 200 more than York and 253 more than Dauphin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 13 new here in Schuylkill for a total of 90 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Gentlemen, it’s going to get bad before it gets worse. I wouldn’t expect retail to open before July 4. We are huge Broadway fans and attend 20 or so shows a year. I don’t expect them to reopen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Here is some fake digital snow to cheer up those of us that love winter weather, even in the Spring ! The 18z GFS has a one-two punch on the 15th & 16th ! The MJO is going through phase 1 & 2 & most models do have a turn to below normal temps starting by the end of this week. Snow is 99.9999 % percent unlikely for most of us, but in this day & age that we are living through, who knows what will happen?! It might as well snow in Mid-April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 8 hours ago, canderson said: Gentlemen, it’s going to get bad before it gets worse. I wouldn’t expect retail to open before July 4. We are huge Broadway fans and attend 20 or so shows a year. I don’t expect them to reopen this year. One thing I've wondered about with the daily reports from the state on new cases is just how lagged the test results are.. like are some of the postive results reported for a certain day from a test that was given several days ago or even a week or so? As much as this has spread in some parts of the state to this point... the stay at home/social distancing measures have to be making some kind of a difference that could start showing up in the data soon. But yea, that's going to be a challenge when it comes time to figure out how to restart stuff and not make for another outbreak before we're really equipped to deal with it. I could see certain sectors of the workforce restarting fairly quickly after things stabilize but when it comes to the retail/entertainment/travel related things...ugh. 13 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Lancaster county is BLOWING up...371 confirmed cases, 200 more than York and 253 more than Dauphin. Part of my schooling in addition to my met degree is a minor and also graduate certification in GIS. I know they're trying to get a serious message across, but naturally the cartographer/analyst in me wishes that the health.pa.gov map had a different representation/classification method of the color scheme to the number of cases. Centre County reported 4 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total in that county to 43. Apparently 43 cases was enough to turn the county red on the map (the highest category). So basically Centre at 43 is lumped into the same category as Philadelphia County with 3135 cases. Other than a lot of counties painted red, that big of a range is not really telling me much statistically. 3135 known cases spread over Philadelphia County's 2019 population (est) of 1,584,064 people comes out to 0.2% or about 1 in 505. 43 known cases spread over Centre's 2019 population(est) of 162,385 is about 0.026%... or 1 in 3776. That's a significant difference. It shows that despite Philadelphia County's much larger population, the virus is notably more prevalent there statistically. If your wondering about Lancaster County, it's 0.07% or about 1 in 1471. That's the kind of statistic you want mapped out if you really want a somewhat better picture of the hot spots of this virus at the county level. Obviously, viewing the virus statistics at the city/municipality level would be much more telling but that's not publicly available right now. Lastly, this data only becomes more accurate with testing as many people as you can.. which should have been more of a priority early on in the initial hot spots of where the virus started showing up here in this country, and even now for that matter. Software modeling the potential spread/impact of this virus is only as good as the data being put into it, much like weather modeling in that regard. 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is some fake digital snow to cheer up those of us that love winter weather, even in the Spring ! The 18z GFS has a one-two punch on the 15th & 16th ! The MJO is going through phase 1 & 2 & most models do have a turn to below normal temps starting by the end of this week. Snow is 99.9999 % percent unlikely for most of us, but in this day & age that we are living through, who knows what will happen?! It might as well snow in Mid-April! Might as well just lock that right in, I put my snowblower back in the storage shed on Saturday, haha. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Part of my schooling in addition to my met degree is a minor and also graduate certification in GIS. I know they're trying to get a serious message across, but naturally the cartographer/analyst in me wishes that the health.pa.gov map had a different representation/classification method of the color scheme to the number of cases. Centre County reported 4 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total in that county to 43. Apparently 43 cases was enough to turn the county red on the map (the highest category). So basically Centre at 43 is lumped into the same category as Philadelphia County with 3135 cases. Other than a lot of counties painted red, that big of a range is not really telling me much statistically. 3135 known cases spread over Philadelphia County's 2019 population (est) of 1,584,064 people comes out to 0.2% or about 1 in 505. 43 known cases spread over Centre's 2019 population(est) of 162,385 is about 0.026%... or 1 in 3776. That's a significant difference. It shows that despite Philadelphia County's much larger population, the virus is notably more prevalent there statistically. If your wondering about Lancaster County, it's 0.07% or about 1 in 1471. That's the kind of statistic you want mapped out if you really want a somewhat better picture of the hot spots of this virus at the county level. Obviously, viewing the virus statistics at the city/municipality level would be much more telling but that's not publicly available right now. This site here breaks it down into percentage and ratio, which is what I, myself, have been paying attention to. Sure, the big numbers are impressive, but the rate of infection is a better indicator of how good, or bad, a particular county is. To get the ratio and percent, for those who haven't seen it yet, zoom the map and click on the specific county. https://infection2020.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: One thing I've wondered about with the daily reports from the state on new cases is just how lagged the test results are.. like are some of the postive results reported for a certain day from a test that was given several days ago or even a week or so? As much as this has spread in some parts of the state to this point... the stay at home/social distancing measures have to be making some kind of a difference that could start showing up in the data soon. But yea, that's going to be a challenge when it comes time to figure out how to restart stuff and not make for another outbreak before we're really equipped to deal with it. I could see certain sectors of the workforce restarting fairly quickly after things stabilize but when it comes to the retail/entertainment/travel related things...ugh. Part of my schooling in addition to my met degree is a minor and also graduate certification in GIS. I know they're trying to get a serious message across, but naturally the cartographer/analyst in me wishes that the health.pa.gov map had a different representation/classification method of the color scheme to the number of cases. Centre County reported 4 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total in that county to 43. Apparently 43 cases was enough to turn the county red on the map (the highest category). So basically Centre at 43 is lumped into the same category as Philadelphia County with 3135 cases. Other than a lot of counties painted red, that big of a range is not really telling me much statistically. 3135 known cases spread over Philadelphia County's 2019 population (est) of 1,584,064 people comes out to 0.2% or about 1 in 505. 43 known cases spread over Centre's 2019 population(est) of 162,385 is about 0.026%... or 1 in 3776. That's a significant difference. It shows that despite Philadelphia County's much larger population, the virus is notably more prevalent there statistically. If your wondering about Lancaster County, it's 0.07% or about 1 in 1471. That's the kind of statistic you want mapped out if you really want a somewhat better picture of the hot spots of this virus at the county level. Obviously, viewing the virus statistics at the city/municipality level would be much more telling but that's not publicly available right now. Lastly, this data only becomes more accurate with testing as many people as you can.. which should have been more of a priority early on in the initial hot spots of where the virus started showing up here in this country, and even now for that matter. Software modeling the potential spread/impact of this virus is only as good as the data being put into it, much like weather modeling in that regard. Might as well just lock that right in, I put my snowblower back in the storage shed on Saturday, haha. Informative post Mag. I agree with what your saying. Winter can now officially begin...I pulled my big blower off my tractor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: One thing I've wondered about with the daily reports from the state on new cases is just how lagged the test results are.. like are some of the postive results reported for a certain day from a test that was given several days ago or even a week or so? As much as this has spread in some parts of the state to this point... the stay at home/social distancing measures have to be making some kind of a difference that could start showing up in the data soon. But yea, that's going to be a challenge when it comes time to figure out how to restart stuff and not make for another outbreak before we're really equipped to deal with it. I could see certain sectors of the workforce restarting fairly quickly after things stabilize but when it comes to the retail/entertainment/travel related things...ugh. Part of my schooling in addition to my met degree is a minor and also graduate certification in GIS. I know they're trying to get a serious message across, but naturally the cartographer/analyst in me wishes that the health.pa.gov map had a different representation/classification method of the color scheme to the number of cases. Centre County reported 4 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total in that county to 43. Apparently 43 cases was enough to turn the county red on the map (the highest category). So basically Centre at 43 is lumped into the same category as Philadelphia County with 3135 cases. Other than a lot of counties painted red, that big of a range is not really telling me much statistically. 3135 known cases spread over Philadelphia County's 2019 population (est) of 1,584,064 people comes out to 0.2% or about 1 in 505. 43 known cases spread over Centre's 2019 population(est) of 162,385 is about 0.026%... or 1 in 3776. That's a significant difference. It shows that despite Philadelphia County's much larger population, the virus is notably more prevalent there statistically. If your wondering about Lancaster County, it's 0.07% or about 1 in 1471. That's the kind of statistic you want mapped out if you really want a somewhat better picture of the hot spots of this virus at the county level. Obviously, viewing the virus statistics at the city/municipality level would be much more telling but that's not publicly available right now. Lastly, this data only becomes more accurate with testing as many people as you can.. which should have been more of a priority early on in the initial hot spots of where the virus started showing up here in this country, and even now for that matter. Software modeling the potential spread/impact of this virus is only as good as the data being put into it, much like weather modeling in that regard. Might as well just lock that right in, I put my snowblower back in the storage shed on Saturday, haha. Never took mine out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 16 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is some fake digital snow to cheer up those of us that love winter weather, even in the Spring ! The 18z GFS has a one-two punch on the 15th & 16th ! The MJO is going through phase 1 & 2 & most models do have a turn to below normal temps starting by the end of this week. Snow is 99.9999 % percent unlikely for most of us, but in this day & age that we are living through, who knows what will happen?! It might as well snow in Mid-April! I'm holding out hope Blizz keep it coming! With the way 2020 has done thus far in events might there could be a possibility of snow in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 13 hours ago, MAG5035 said: One thing I've wondered about with the daily reports from the state on new cases is just how lagged the test results are.. like are some of the postive results reported for a certain day from a test that was given several days ago or even a week or so? As much as this has spread in some parts of the state to this point... the stay at home/social distancing measures have to be making some kind of a difference that could start showing up in the data soon. But yea, that's going to be a challenge when it comes time to figure out how to restart stuff and not make for another outbreak before we're really equipped to deal with it. I could see certain sectors of the workforce restarting fairly quickly after things stabilize but when it comes to the retail/entertainment/travel related things...ugh. Part of my schooling in addition to my met degree is a minor and also graduate certification in GIS. I know they're trying to get a serious message across, but naturally the cartographer/analyst in me wishes that the health.pa.gov map had a different representation/classification method of the color scheme to the number of cases. Centre County reported 4 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total in that county to 43. Apparently 43 cases was enough to turn the county red on the map (the highest category). So basically Centre at 43 is lumped into the same category as Philadelphia County with 3135 cases. Other than a lot of counties painted red, that big of a range is not really telling me much statistically. 3135 known cases spread over Philadelphia County's 2019 population (est) of 1,584,064 people comes out to 0.2% or about 1 in 505. 43 known cases spread over Centre's 2019 population(est) of 162,385 is about 0.026%... or 1 in 3776. That's a significant difference. It shows that despite Philadelphia County's much larger population, the virus is notably more prevalent there statistically. If your wondering about Lancaster County, it's 0.07% or about 1 in 1471. That's the kind of statistic you want mapped out if you really want a somewhat better picture of the hot spots of this virus at the county level. Obviously, viewing the virus statistics at the city/municipality level would be much more telling but that's not publicly available right now. Lastly, this data only becomes more accurate with testing as many people as you can.. which should have been more of a priority early on in the initial hot spots of where the virus started showing up here in this country, and even now for that matter. Software modeling the potential spread/impact of this virus is only as good as the data being put into it, much like weather modeling in that regard. Might as well just lock that right in, I put my snowblower back in the storage shed on Saturday, haha. 9 hours ago, Voyager said: This site here breaks it down into percentage and ratio, which is what I, myself, have been paying attention to. Sure, the big numbers are impressive, but the rate of infection is a better indicator of how good, or bad, a particular county is. To get the ratio and percent, for those who haven't seen it yet, zoom the map and click on the specific county. https://infection2020.com/ Hey, thank you both! That is interesting information to study and tells a clearer story than just a single number...much appreciated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Looks like Friday could bring some snow to northwest Pa. With highs in the low 40's here Friday. @NWSStateCollege 1h •A few strong to severe t'storms are possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of south-central PA. •Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, & locally heavy rainfall are the primary threats. #PAwx pic.twitter.com/ZV83sD5GcD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 The latest Canadian & GFS have a winter storm for us on April 16th ! I am all in on this .0000000001 % chance of verifying! At the very least, some winter storm tracking of another failed event would be a little distraction from everything that is going on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Below freezing for some this weekend. On the Virus talk seems the economists and optimism are ruling the day right now. It would not surprise me to see Trump start back on his "we need to open up now" rants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Below freezing for some this weekend. On the Virus talk seems the economists and optimism are ruling the day right now. It would not surprise me to see Trump start back on his "we need to open up now" rants. Is that a problem?? We do need to open up someday soon. If one payed attention early on, we've known for almost 3 weeks now that this was going to be the worst period, and that mitigation would take hold and flatten the curve. Bye and large this is evolving as expected (macro scale here). There should be no surprise in that. Im gessing some dont live in the private sector like i do. Anyone involved in management HAS to be talking about this. That discussion does not negate the legitimate concerns of COVID 19 whatsoever, but it ABSOLUTELY is the main part of the conversation. I will constantly go to the CDC H1N1 vs CV 19 graphs at the end of this pandemic to see what the end result really looks like. From what i've seen, he has never said now....but he has said as soon as possible and with consult to his advisors. Unless i'm watching the wrong president, thats been the general theme of his stance on business. While I don't like his persona at all, and he is quite "unpresidential", I feel rather confident in the steps taken by his team, and I'm not here to judge every word they say....nor will i live and die by it, but I'm absolutely paying attention... While he often makes me cringe....he is spot on in his "we cannot make the cure be worse than the cause" approach..... There HAS to be a balance...like it or not. This is uncharted territory and while there are always various ways to look at this, they ALL need considered. Hope yall are well. Looking forward to the other side. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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