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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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The 0z Euro & EPS victory continued to provide a very interesting look for the perhaps final winter season act this year.

A strong coastal develops & the pattern finally looks to support this chance.

Here is the 0z Euro Op.

 

7C1A3667-A83F-4098-B5FF-FC8387EFDDEB.png

ED724305-C590-4DF7-BD53-8FAF49CC57BB.png

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There is strong support for a coastal storm from the 0z EPS, especially for this time range.

Check out the 500mb Heights look ! In mid winter, we would be drooling over this pattern.

At the beginning of April, it could still give some of us a chance if everything develops & tracks just right.

ADA5B15D-482C-4B30-AE84-C671A9D0E762.png

60EFBBD9-EA0E-4D83-9E1D-06A2822EBA4B.png

9FD17E4E-68DA-45C7-BA7D-F39C0143B17E.png

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Listening to Dr. Birx talk about models not adding up to reality on the ground made me think about our whole last winter as it pertained to GFS LR forecasts. 

 

 

 

 

Listening to Dr Birx talk and explain the current and future plans for this virus really gives me hope.  She by far is the most intelligent and sharpest figure during the briefings.   She really impresses me.    

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49 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Listening to Dr Birx talk and explain the current and future plans for this virus really gives me hope.  She by far is the most intelligent and sharpest figure during the briefings.   She really impresses me.    

Just hope she is right.  Apparently the info she stated was misinterpreted by her so I am worried.  "Apparently" the person that made that model came out after her speech and said she misunderstood and is still calling for 500K deaths in the UK but a look online does not show that statement so not sure what to believe.    I can say one thing.  This is the election for Trump as he continues down this "Open the Country" path.  The news out of NY and LA is not good but he could be right that it is just going to be hot spots but if he is wrong the nation is about to get to hell and his chances of election will go with it.    

 

Edit-I think any of the apocalyptic totals will be shown to be over done.  It's similar to all of us looking at the highest snow total and thin king "It could happen".  I am surprised there has been so much talk of these models through the whole pandemic.   I did find the guy who did the model and his explanation is that the 500K was with no social distancing.  If the UK stays with the social distancing plan (I think it is though much of April but not sure) then it would be the lower number.

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just hope she is right.  Apparently the info she stated was misinterpreted by her so I am worried.  "Apparently" the person that made that model came out after her speech and said she misunderstood and is still calling for 500K deaths in the UK but a look online does not show that statement so not sure what to believe.    I can say one thing.  This is the election for Trump as he continues down this "Open the Country" path.  The news out of NY and LA is not good but he could be right that it is just going to be hot spots but if he is wrong the nation is about to get to hell and his chances of election will go with it.    

 

Edit-I think any of the apocalyptic totals will be shown to be over done.  It's similar to all of us looking at the highest snow total and thin king "It could happen".  I am surprised there has been so much talk of these models through the whole pandemic. 

Well I’d hope she’d have her facts straight but things are always changing and there’s so many moving parts, it makes it hard.   Here’s a tid bit from Business Insider Article I was reading earlier :

 

“Not all the coronavirus deaths that the models predict, however, would necessarily stem from the current outbreak. The researchers said a second wave of infections would likely occur in the fall, sometime between August and December. The chance of this happening is about 73%, they said.“

 

This is concerning to me.   Imagine another spike right around the holidays 

 

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6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Well I’d hope she’d have her facts straight but things are always changing and there’s so many moving parts, it makes it hard.   Here’s a tid bit from Business Insider Article I was reading earlier :

 

“Not all the coronavirus deaths that the models predict, however, would necessarily stem from the current outbreak. The researchers said a second wave of infections would likely occur in the fall, sometime between August and December. The chance of this happening is about 73%, they said.“

 

This is concerning to me.   Imagine another spike right around the holidays 

 

Yes, though it does seem to change every day so its hard to predict out beyond a week.  As I edited my last post I found the Twitter account of the guy she quoted and she was off some on how she stated it.  A lot of that going around.  But seems he is saying if the UK stays with social distancing for a while it will be the lower number if interpreted correctly.  If they had not gone with social distancing, which they were not going to, it would have been 500K. 

 

 

 

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Hey guys a family member has COVID-19. She can’t walk 10’ without being out of breath but can’t get into a hospital. 
 

Thoughts appreciated. (She’s also 26 and otherwise healthy)

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey guys a family member has COVID-19. She can’t walk 10’ without being out of breath but can’t get into a hospital. 
 

Thoughts appreciated. (She’s also 26 and otherwise healthy)

Thoughts and prayers for a quick recovery 

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7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Thoughts and prayers for a quick recovery 

She’s a surgeon x was exposed at the hospital (they had no masks). She thinks she’s peaked at the worse point and will begin recovery tomorrow or Saturday. 

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33 minutes ago, canderson said:

She’s a surgeon x was exposed at the hospital (they had no masks). She thinks she’s peaked at the worse point and will begin recovery tomorrow or Saturday. 

Sorry to hear that ! I hope that she gets well soon!

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The 12z Euro & EPS still are advertising a great looking pattern for an east coast storm next week. 

I would love to see the 12z EPS Control run verify, although the Harrisburg area would be in a low snow spot. If we were in a different time without social distancing, I would suggest that we take a forum group trip to the home of @Voyager ! He is in the jackpot show for our area this run.

The pattern supports the chance at a strong coastal, but absolutely everything would need to go right to get a warning level snow event in CTP in early April.

At the least, it gives us 1 more to track.

 

F97D7575-B4C6-4EEF-B7DE-0C48C341A379.png

985530C2-B9EC-410D-A8D3-388704E495ED.png

45376D05-2987-49BE-A07D-943140F40BAD.png

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro & EPS still are advertising a great looking pattern for an east coast storm next week. 

I would love to see the 12z EPS Control run verify, although the Harrisburg area would be in a low snow spot. If we were in a different time without social distancing, I would suggest that we take a forum group trip to the home of @Voyager ! He is in the jackpot show for our area this run.

The pattern supports the chance at a strong coastal, but absolutely everything would need to go right to get a warning level snow event in CTP in early April.

At the least, it gives us 1 more to track.

 

And I'd welcome all of you, but sorry, Tamaqua never ends up in the jackpot zone...lol

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Hey guys a family member has COVID-19. She can’t walk 10’ without being out of breath but can’t get into a hospital. 
 

Thoughts appreciated. (She’s also 26 and otherwise healthy)

Thoughts with her.  Why can she not get into a hospital?  Is she in NY?

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

Hey guys a family member has COVID-19. She can’t walk 10’ without being out of breath but can’t get into a hospital. 
 

Thoughts appreciated. (She’s also 26 and otherwise healthy)

Best thoughts man..sorry to hear that.

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

Hey guys a family member has COVID-19. She can’t walk 10’ without being out of breath but can’t get into a hospital. 
 

Thoughts appreciated. (She’s also 26 and otherwise healthy)

I just read on my twitter feed a person who's friend that was 25 died from COVID-19 and they said how walking a little made them feel like they ran a mile. They ended up dying after being denied testing and not considered a priority because they didn't meet the criteria for testing despite having every single symptom and being extremely sick. The people said they couldn't prove they were around someone that had Covid so they were denied. Extremely sad.

Keep an eye on your family member. This 25 yo went into cardiac arrest after not getting to a hospital after 2 weeks. People who are young think they're invincible from this but I'm young and pretty worried. Well tbh I'm petrified of giving this to my parents or grandparents.

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6 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I just read on my twitter feed a person who's friend that was 25 died from COVID-19 and they said how walking a little made them feel like they ran a mile. They ended up dying after being denied testing and not considered a priority because they didn't meet the criteria for testing despite having every single symptom and being extremely sick. The people said they couldn't prove they were around someone that had Covid so they were denied. Extremely sad.

Keep an eye on your family member. This 25 yo went into cardiac arrest after not getting to a hospital after 2 weeks. People who are young think they're invincible from this but I'm young and pretty worried. Well tbh I'm petrified of giving this to my parents or grandparents.

I think the guidance to spend some time away from the older population is the best thing to do now and probably for the next few months. That is a scary story. 

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6 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

They ended up dying after being denied testing and not considered a priority because they didn't meet the criteria for testing despite having every single symptom and being extremely sick. The people said they couldn't prove they were around someone that had Covid so they were denied. Extremely sad.

See? This is bullshit...

Harvey Weinstein can get a damned test, and so can British Royalty, sports stars, Hollywood actors, etc, but someone extremely ill and exhibiting all the symptoms can't. There is something IMMENSELY wrong with this picture, and it pisses me off... :angry:

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@canderson I'm just getting caught up this morning - my best wishes to your family and the young lady that is infected.

I'm reading a lot of horror stories about young, healthy people either dying or getting extremely ill from this virus. With every passing day I'm becoming increasingly concerned as it's only getting worse now and will continue to get worse for at least a few more weeks...

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54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@canderson I'm just getting caught up this morning - my best wishes to your family and the young lady that is infected.

I'm reading a lot of horror stories about young, healthy people either dying or getting extremely ill from this virus. With every passing day I'm becoming increasingly concerned as it's only getting worse now and will continue to get worse for at least a few more weeks...

I am definitely concerned about the (possibly fleeting?) hope the Prez. News Conferences try to give.  To me it would be more prudent to not scare but at least keep it serious and stop talking about opening the economy as a way to try and prop up the stock market. 

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12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro & EPS still are advertising a great looking pattern for an east coast storm next week. 

I would love to see the 12z EPS Control run verify, although the Harrisburg area would be in a low snow spot. If we were in a different time without social distancing, I would suggest that we take a forum group trip to the home of @Voyager ! He is in the jackpot show for our area this run.

The pattern supports the chance at a strong coastal, but absolutely everything would need to go right to get a warning level snow event in CTP in early April.

At the least, it gives us 1 more to track.

 

F97D7575-B4C6-4EEF-B7DE-0C48C341A379.png

985530C2-B9EC-410D-A8D3-388704E495ED.png

45376D05-2987-49BE-A07D-943140F40BAD.png

Keep it coming Blizz, we need a mental lift right now for sure. I sure hope we have one more to track over this time. Sorry Canderson for the news, thoughts and prayers are with you and the family. I will say everyone has their own views on what is happening and what we are doing Politically and I respect them all but understand everyone has their own views on it and not to degrade people or opinions on it. I don't think it is the right time to bash the President. He has an excellent team and is working with them. But on the flip side, there is a lot of fake news going on right now and he won't stand for it either. My one and only opinion on this in this forum.

Now back to the weather, and Blizz Thank you! Keep the spirit up at least for me we have one more to track. Again, Canderson hope everything turns out OK! 

 

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More counties in PA under stay at home orders starting tonight. Outside of Carbon and Schuylkill, almost the entire eastern third of the state is under "lockdown".

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