Central PA - Spring 2020

[daxx]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Below freezing for some this weekend.  

 

On the Virus talk seems the economists and optimism are ruling the day right now.  It would not surprise me to see Trump start back on his "we need to open up now" rants. 

I have been working since this started. There are 800 employees that work here. As of right now not one case here at work.  Not trying to be an ass but I’m happy to be working. I get it people are scared and that’s ok, but you can’t stay in hiding forever.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Is that a problem??

We do need to open up someday soon.  If one payed attention early on, we've known for almost 3 weeks now that this was going to be the worst period, and that mitigation would take hold and flatten the curve.  Bye and large this is evolving as expected (macro scale here).  There should be no surprise in that. 

Im gessing some dont live in the private sector like i do. Anyone involved in management HAS to be talking about this.  That discussion does not negate the legitimate concerns of COVID 19 whatsoever, but it ABSOLUTELY is the main part of the conversation.  I will constantly go to the CDC H1N1 vs CV 19 graphs at the end of this pandemic to see what the end result really looks like.  

From what i've seen, he has never said now....but he has said as soon as possible and with consult to his advisors.  Unless i'm watching the wrong president, thats been the general theme of his stance on business.  While I don't like his persona at all, and he is quite "unpresidential", I feel rather confident in the steps taken by his team, and I'm not here to judge every word they say....nor will i live and die by it, but I'm absolutely paying attention...  While he often makes me cringe....he is spot on in his "we cannot make the cure be worse than the cause" approach.....  There HAS to be a balance...like it or not.  This is uncharted territory and while there are always various ways to look at this, they ALL need considered.  

Hope yall are well.  Looking forward to the other side.

 

Nut

 

Its not a problem but a large portion of people I know think we are closed down for May and maybe even June....heading into a great depression level event.  Some states have already cancelled school until next fall.    So definitely some major differences of opinion and the waves seems to go back and forth each week.  Last week most of those pressers were doom and gloom.  Now I am hearing people talking about getting together for Easter so frame of mind seems to go up and down like a Yo-Yo. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, daxx said:

I have been working since this started. There are 800 employees that work here. As of right now not one case here at work.  Not trying to be an ass but I’m happy to be working. I get it people are scared and that’s ok, but you can’t stay in hiding forever.  

I think a strong case can be made that either many in S Central PA have had the virus and did not notice or its not prevalent here yet.  Need the tests to tell which way. The way it took over NY suggests something is different in S Central PA right now.  I know hundreds of people and not one has even taken a test much less been in a situation where they needed to go to a hospital.  I truly think no one knows enough to make  definitive opinion on whether it will not a false alarm here or the bad has not even started yet. 

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, daxx said:

I have been working since this started. There are 800 employees that work here. As of right now not one case here at work.  Not trying to be an ass but I’m happy to be working. I get it people are scared and that’s ok, but you can’t stay in hiding forever.  

as I'm commissioned sales....they want me to get whatever i possibley can right now, so I too am lucky.  But to every unemployed "non essential" person.....you ARE essential and the backbone of business.  The business minded part of the convos realizes that, and some of us need you to do well, know and appreciate that.  I have never placed business above life and death, but there are many ways to die, and wide scale unemployment and the stresses it puts on 10's of millions right now is ABSOLUTELY an important part of the conversation.  I too understand the fear, but agree 1000%, that we cant do this forever.  At some point we are going to have to pull our pants on and get back at it. 

Remember folks....as sad as it is, we all will die of something at sometime.  Fortunately we live in a time where science and technology can bend that curve, but that said, something WILL get us in the end.  Thats just me being a dieheard realist, and not afraid of what may get me, but to each is own.

[pasnownut]

53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its not a problem but a large portion of people I know think we are closed down for May and maybe even June....heading into a great depression level event.  Some states have already cancelled school until next fall.    So definitely some major differences of opinion and the waves seems to go back and forth each week.  Last week most of those pressers were doom and gloom.  Now I am hearing people talking about getting together for Easter so frame of mind seems to go up and down like a Yo-Yo. 

Ive heard non of the sort....but have heard signs of improvement chatter.....

If we go to may/june.....I and MANY MANY others will have tons of time to troll on here.....

I'm sorry but to those that say that are overreaching and helping to inspire fear that is not necessary right now.  This pandemic will continue to look different every week, and there is nothing wrong with looking at the distant light that wasn't shining a short time ago.  This is no staycation for ANY in the private sector.  Those I know that are furloughed or unemployed are scared shitless of being without a job or income.  Like it or not, that's a most valid concern.  

At some reasonable point we've got to man up and face it.  I've got my nest egg and will be fine, but i fear for so many that do not.  THEY are who i'm feeling for...not myself.   

 

 

[Wmsptwx]

Bad day in PA deaths jumped up 78(162 to 240)one day....hopefully it doesn’t go all that much higher. My cousin in Montgomery county(47 pretty healthy dude)has it and isn’t doing too well had to go to hospital so hoping he comes through okay.

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Ive heard non of the sort....but have heard signs of improvement chatter.....

If we go to may/june.....I and MANY MANY others will have tons of time to troll on here.....

I'm sorry but to those that say that are overreaching and helping to inspire fear that is not necessary right now.  This pandemic will continue to look different every week, and there is nothing wrong with looking at the distant light that wasn't shining a short time ago.  This is no staycation for ANY in the private sector.  Those I know that are furloughed or unemployed are scared shitless of being without a job or income.  Like it or not, that's a most valid concern.  

At some reasonable point we've got to man up and face it.  I've got my nest egg and will be fine, but i fear for so many that do not.  THEY are who i'm feeling for...not myself.   

 

 

I am still working and several co-workers are saying they are doing their Easter Plans regardless of social distancing.  People are tired of being separate.  I suspect some level of distancing will be going into next year just a matter of what level.  Your tone suggests you may have misinterpreted my initial post today.   I am not at all a Trump fan but my post was more pointing out the confusion and back and forth nature of the information.  Nothing wrong with looking in the future.  I agree it cannot stay like this. 

[CarlislePaWx]

With the noon update today, all 67 counties for the first time now have at least one positive case.  Yesterday's new cases was fewer than the day before.  Unfortunately, with today's new total of 1,597 positive cases the slope has re-steepened as the westward penetration through the state continues.  The number of deaths has increased substantially.  2 days ago there were 150, today there are 240 reported; a dramatic increase.  Gov. Wolf was wearing a mask as he approached the podium to deliver an update a short time ago.  I've heard that Walmart is turning its aisles into one-way only to reduce overall volume.  We've been doing our shopping online at both Walmart and Giant which helps tremendously with not having to enter the stores.

[Jns2183]

With the noon update today, all 67 counties for the first time now have at least one positive case.  Yesterday's new cases was fewer than the day before.  Unfortunately, with today's new total of 1,597 positive cases the slope has re-steepened as the westward penetration through the state continues.  The number of deaths has increased substantially.  2 days ago there were 150, today there are 240 reported; a dramatic increase.  Gov. Wolf was wearing a mask as he approached the podium to deliver an update a short time ago.  I've heard that Walmart is turning its aisles into one-way only to reduce overall volume.  We've been doing our shopping online at both Walmart and Giant which helps tremendously with not having to enter the stores.

Is there a table or spreadsheet that has new cases, total cases, deaths, recovery for each day the last 2-3 weeks for PA?


. Pro

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

With the noon update today, all 67 counties for the first time now have at least one positive case.  Yesterday's new cases was fewer than the day before.  Unfortunately, with today's new total of 1,597 positive cases the slope has re-steepened as the westward penetration through the state continues.  The number of deaths has increased substantially.  2 days ago there were 150, today there are 240 reported; a dramatic increase.  Gov. Wolf was wearing a mask as he approached the podium to deliver an update a short time ago.  I've heard that Walmart is turning its aisles into one-way only to reduce overall volume.  We've been doing our shopping online at both Walmart and Giant which helps tremendously with not having to enter the stores.

I saw the Giant online option but their time schedules for delivery is 2-3 weeks out.  Hard to schedule around that. 

[Wmsptwx]

Sounds like my cousins symptoms kicked up after about 4 to 5 days, heard even walking to bathroom or from couch to bed completely winded him. 

[sauss06]

33 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Bad day in PA deaths jumped up 78(162 to 240)one day....hopefully it doesn’t go all that much higher. My cousin in Montgomery county(47 pretty healthy dude)has it and isn’t doing too well had to go to hospital so hoping he comes through okay.

sending good vibes bro

[pasnownut]

37 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Bad day in PA deaths jumped up 78(162 to 240)one day....hopefully it doesn’t go all that much higher. My cousin in Montgomery county(47 pretty healthy dude)has it and isn’t doing too well had to go to hospital so hoping he comes through okay.

Something for you to chew on at lunch.....I posted to keep this in perspective.

I did the math for you...

heart disease deaths per day - 1773

cancer deaths per day - 1641

CV 19 in past 24 hrs - 1496 (which we are likely nearing peak)

As per CDC  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Deaths and Mortality

Data are for the U.S.

• Number of deaths: 2,813,503
• Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
• Life expectancy: 78.6 years
• Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Source: Deaths: Final Data for 2017, tables 1, 3, 13 pdf icon[PDF – 2 MB]

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

sending good vibes bro

Thanks Jon appreciate it man!

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I saw the Giant online option but their time schedules for delivery is 2-3 weeks out.  Hard to schedule around that. 

It's different but we're making it work, and I'm feeding 6. We (wife and I) have been in exactly 1 store over the past 3 weeks. We're getting everything delivered. Perfect? No. Suitable given the conditions? Yes. 

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Sounds like my cousins symptoms kicked up after about 4 to 5 days, heard even walking to bathroom or from couch to bed completely winded him. 

I hate seeing this - sending prayer to you and your extended family.

[Bubbler86]

Just saw one of the more trusted models (isn't this the perfect place to talk about models) says total mortality is now estimated at 80,000ish but if I am reading the info correctly it assumes schools and businesses remain closed until August!

[Bubbler86]

40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's different but we're making it work, and I'm feeding 6. We (wife and I) have been in exactly 1 store over the past 3 weeks. We're getting everything delivered. Perfect? No. Suitable given the conditions? Yes. 

Definitely do-able we we would never starve of course.  These are wants vs. needs.  Just hard to plan 2-3 weeks out unless you go to the store in between which defeats the purpose. 

[Wmsptwx]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hate seeing this - sending prayer to you and your extended family.

Thanks dude appreciated....hope everyone here is healthy and all doing well...and hope we all get treated to a December 2020 blizzard.

[CarlislePaWx]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I saw the Giant online option but their time schedules for delivery is 2-3 weeks out.  Hard to schedule around that. 

Yeah, Giant here is one week out.  Walmart had only been 1 to 2 days out, but that is starting to stretch out too.  Walmart will only let you schedule out to 2 days, so you have to wait until they open up the next day which happens some time during the middle of the night.  I think my wife may have to set an alarm for 3:30am to find an available delivery slot...lol.

[CarlislePaWx]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

 

Is there a table or spreadsheet that has new cases, total cases, deaths, recovery for each day the last 2-3 weeks for PA?


. Pro

 

I've looked but I can't find a site that contains all the historical data (so far).  Let me know if you find something as I'd be interested also.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I've looked but I can't find a site that contains all the historical data (so far).  Let me know if you find something as I'd be interested also.

this was shared here the other day.....good source  https://infection2020.com/

 

Using the mortality stats from 2017 cancer and heart disease averages that i posted earlier to get an idea of where we are.  Hope this helps to understand how some of us view #'s

Period 3/1/20 thru 4/7/20 = 38 days

heart disease deaths  - 67,374

cancer deaths  -             62,358

CV 19 -                            12,298 as of 38 min ago

 

[Voyager]

6 hours ago, daxx said:

I have been working since this started. There are 800 employees that work here. As of right now not one case here at work.  Not trying to be an ass but I’m happy to be working. I get it people are scared and that’s ok, but you can’t stay in hiding forever.  

If I can find a local trucking job, I'd take it if the conditions were right (I'm not desperate), but as for being scared, I am of one thing. Being a long haul driver far from home and coming down with the virus. I wouldn't want to be stuck in, say, Omaha, NE for 2-4 weeks while I "hopefully" recover.

[paweather]

This is my one reply to this virus, hope we can track some snow soon, but Governor seriously allowing trout season to start when we are in a Stay at home order? People are getting citations because they are driving around. This is exactly why everyone is confused with this order. Ridiculous. I have many fishermen friends and I don't like it but to open Trout up and get on TV telling everyone to stay at home outside of the essentials, seriously, fishing is not essential.

Now back to the weather, it is the only weather we got. - Credit to JB. 

 

 

 

 

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thanks dude appreciated....hope everyone here is healthy and all doing well...and hope we all get treated to a December 2020 blizzard.

 

I sincerely hope your cousin will pull through this quickly and fully recovers. I hate hearing about folks I know and care about having to deal with this.

[Wmsptwx]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

This is my one reply to this virus, hope we can track some snow soon, but Governor seriously allowing trout season to start when we are in a Stay at home order? People are getting citations because they are driving around. This is exactly why everyone is confused with this order. Ridiculous. I have many fishermen friends and I don't like it but to open Trout up and get on TV telling everyone to stay at home outside of the essentials, seriously, fishing is not essential.

Now back to the weather, it is the only weather we got. - Credit to JB. 

 

 

 

 

Very, very confused messaging.

[Wmsptwx]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

I sincerely hope your cousin will pull through this quickly and fully recovers. I hate hearing about folks I know and care about having to deal with this.

Thanks man means a lot... you are my forum brother after all  

[Anduril]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

this was shared here the other day.....good source  https://infection2020.com/

 

Using the mortality stats from 2017 cancer and heart disease averages that i posted earlier to get an idea of where we are.  Hope this helps to understand how some of us view #'s

Period 3/1/20 thru 4/7/20 = 38 days

heart disease deaths  - 67,374

cancer deaths  -             62,358

CV 19 -                            12,298 as of 38 min ago

 

I don't mean to be *that* guy but it is somewhat disingenuous considering in many cases CV19 deaths are not being documented correctly (aka being listed as pneumonia or heart failure) we're not exactly getting a clear picture as to the death rates associated with CV19. Is it the end of the world? No, but is it a serious situation that is going to impact a large range of people and to downplay it is not in my mind correct. Especially with our current president and ruling party constantly downplaying if not outright lying left and right about it.

[daxx]

48 minutes ago, Anduril said:

I don't mean to be *that* guy but it is somewhat disingenuous considering in many cases CV19 deaths are not being documented correctly (aka being listed as pneumonia or heart failure) we're not exactly getting a clear picture as to the death rates associated with CV19. Is it the end of the world? No, but is it a serious situation that is going to impact a large range of people and to downplay it is not in my mind correct. Especially with our current president and ruling party constantly downplaying if not outright lying left and right about it.

Can you imagine if China would have been truthful from the very beginning. The whole world would be in a hell of a lot  better shape!  Maybe world leaders would have reacted earlier and would have taken it more serious. 

[Anduril]

14 minutes ago, daxx said:

Can you imagine if China would have been truthful from the very beginning. The whole world would be in a hell of a lot  better shape!  Maybe world leaders would have reacted earlier and would have taken it more serious. 

The world leaders should have reacted far early based upon what was being released by china. the information was all there, our leaders were literally too stupid to act on it. Some countries did and are showing positive results. The ones that didnt (us, italy, spain, uk) are unsurprisingly suffering. This was not an unexpected thing literally our government war gamed against this, our military screamed this was a possibility. This is not china's fault. This is not the worlds fault. This is our countries leadership or utter failing there of's fault. Sadly, the ones who are responsible will never face the blame they should