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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Severe threat with Sun night into Monday's storm system going to hinge on how much we bust into the warm sector and the usual cloud cover issues and whatnot... the latter of which I'm not too keen on. CAPE will probably be limited but I can see a line of storms try to fire near the frontal passage and it wouldn't take much to tap down what looks to be screaming winds not too far aloft. Will probably have to keep an eye on the LSV in particular in terms of severe.

Either way, you folks that live in the jet stream over there in the LSV should be delighted to know that this upcoming storm probably poses at least a similar magnitude wind event threat as Thursday's system. May not be as long lived but we could be talking similar wind gusts for some portion of Monday just prior and especially after frontal passage. I'd argue the wind potential is even greater but models seem to run the wind max (and corresponding LLJ max) up the I-95 corridor and they have really have then screaming in NJ and NYC/LI. It's still going to be windy regardless. The usual half decent low that runs up through the lakes typically makes for a breezy post frontal regime. A low of this magnitude winding up over the lakes (to 970ish) is likely to bring the wind headlines with it.. perhaps even high wind criteria for some parts of PA. 

Batten down those cows. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I hate wind. That is all.

Happy Easter everyone! 

Seems like when i was a kid it was never windy enough to fly my kite but now it never stops.

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Guessing I'm basically in the middle on this one (away from the LLJ, away from the low track) so I'm thinking only really 40-50 with 50+ at elevations for a wide area that is in between these two features. Anyone think the same?

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Hey @Blizzard of 93 you’re skipping over a serious severe weather threat Monday - one if the better setups I’ve seen here for spin ups and straight line wind damage.

Going to be a lot of damage across PA methinks.

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Hey [mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention] you’re skipping over a serious severe weather threat Monday - one if the better setups I’ve seen here for spin ups and straight line wind damage.
Going to be a lot of damage across PA methinks.

Could go from isolated Tornados to onion snow in a couple days. Welcome to April in PA.


.
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24 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Could go from isolated Tornados to onion snow in a couple days. Welcome to April in PA.


.

Yes, very interesting few days. 

Hopefully I will learn a few things from our severe weather crew in here.

In the meantime, I’ll be tracking the snowflake potential.

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Alabama is ****ed today. I'm going to be glued to James Spann on Twitter and ABC 33/40's social media when all hell breaks loose. 

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12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Alabama is ****ed today. I'm going to be glued to James Spann on Twitter and ABC 33/40's social media when all hell breaks loose. 

I think Mississippi looks more cringey - Jackson’s sounding are off the chart.

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16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Alabama is ****ed today. I'm going to be glued to James Spann on Twitter and ABC 33/40's social media when all hell breaks loose. 

I gained so much respect for that guy back during the big tornado that went right through Tuscaloosa several years ago. That whole area is blessed to have him.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I gained so much respect for that guy back during the big tornado that went right through Tuscaloosa several years ago. That whole area is blessed to have him.

That was one of the best displays of meteorology and severe weather live broadcasting I’ve ever witnessed. He saved many, many lives that day.

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Why did I unignore this? I am so sick of seeing potential snow maps. I'm depressed enough with the Covid-19 stuff, the restrictions, the lack of warm weather to at least take a pleasant walk or work in the yard, lack of work, etc. I don't need anymore depression or I'll end up in an institution... 

 

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12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Why did I unignore this? I am so sick of seeing potential snow maps. 

This. I got banned permanently from the AccuWeather forums years ago for going off about wishcasting, and posting model images that are not supported by reality is no different. 

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I understand not wanting to see anymore snow and such and posting snow maps and etc.. but I mean the above is referring to a possible event in the 72-84 hour range and this has been on a fair amount of guidance in some form or another for the last several days. Tomorrow's storm is going to end up a sub 970 bomb lifting out of the lakes and that's going to carve out a pretty major trough and cold weather for the midweek. The bigger issue I see right now with that following event is it may be suppressed to much.  But if it runs a half decent shot of precip north enough to get into PA in that Wednesday timeframe yes, it's quite probable that it could be snow in some places.  That's neither wishcasting nor sugarcoating the reality of PA weather during the early spring. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I understand not wanting to see anymore snow and such and posting snow maps and etc.. but I mean the above is referring to a possible event in the 72-84 hour range and this has been on a fair amount of guidance in some form or another for the last several days. Tomorrow's storm is going to end up a sub 970 bomb lifting out of the lakes and that's going to carve out a pretty major trough and cold weather for the midweek. The bigger issue I see right now with that following event is it may be suppressed to much.  But if it runs a half decent shot of precip north enough to get into PA in that Wednesday timeframe yes, it's quite probable that it could be snow in some places.  That's neither wishcasting nor sugarcoating the reality of PA weather during the early spring. 

CTP’s discussion is downplaying tomorrow a bit imo - parameters are in place and decent CAPE gets into York and Lancaster and the Allegheny ridgetops will see serious wind. As they are stating they don’t think Monday approaches Thursday’s wind event here and I see a significant chance a good chunk of this region sees gusts above 65 mph.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks @MAG5035 not like I was posting some one time fluke 360 hour random storm that disappeared the next run...

 

Everything you've posted this season has been a total fluke. 

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP’s discussion is downplaying tomorrow a bit imo - parameters are in place and decent CAPE gets into York and Lancaster and the Allegheny ridgetops will see serious wind. As they are stating they don’t think Monday approaches Thursday’s wind event here and I see a significant chance a good chunk of this region sees gusts above 65 mph.

Yea I was looking at the 3k NAM and noticed the CAPE getting up into eastern PA. With this dynamic setup and a ton of shear, it doesn't take much CAPE in the equation to have a setup for potential spin-ups. The CAPE the NAM has is more than enough getting a ribbon of 1000+ into eastern PA during the mid afternoon tomorrow and thus the tornado parameters are lighting up, which concerns me. 

This wind/severe potential statewide looks to have two different areas of focus. Everyone looks to get wind advisory type winds from this system (now issued by CTP). Those western higher elevation counties now in the high wind warning have the bigger wind threat from the significant isoballaric component behind the frontal passage (rapid pressure rise) due to the closer proximity to the deepening low pressure moving up out of the lakes. The Sus Valley has the better chance of severe weather which would easily tap down damaging winds aloft but it's also quite possible that it could be windy before the frontal passage as busting into the warm sector is going to mix the boundary layer and still mix down gusty winds. Amount of clearing is going to be something to watch in the south-central but it probably wouldn't take much with the dynamics. 

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