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2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

The origins of those storms were in SC Wisconsin I believe and gave us the Eagle tornado the evening of the 21st.  On the 18th there were two consecutive derechos that came through many of the same areas (we were only impacted by one here but it was still noteworthy).

It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan.  Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good.  Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day.  Annoying aspect of summer climatology here.  The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though.  It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates.

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5 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan.  Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good.  Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day.  Annoying aspect of summer climatology here.  The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though.  It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates.

It happens here too where the lake diminishes the storms via the lake breeze, another impressive aspect of that June 21 complex.  There were E/SE winds all day, highs in the mid 70s and plenty of cloud cover yet the storms did not weaken at all (and lasted well beyond Milwaukee obviously).

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Friday looks interesting. Strongest 700-500mb flow is across WI and lower MI. Lapse rates are on the meh side, but instability is more than sufficient for severe given the progged shear. This should result in some bowing segments ahead of the front.

 

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7 hours ago, frostfern said:

It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan.  Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good.  Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day.  Annoying aspect of summer climatology here.  The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though.  It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates.

That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa.

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5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa.

It's all relative, but in mid-summer generally the farther west you go the better.  This looks like a repeat of 2018, warm but blocky with no ring-of-fire setup until late August.  Probably something to do with arctic warming.  Stratiform tropical system will be the only drought buster for the lake shadow.

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3 hours ago, frostfern said:

It's all relative, but in mid-summer generally the farther west you go the better.  This looks like a repeat of 2018, warm but blocky with no ring-of-fire setup until late August.  Probably something to do with arctic warming.  Stratiform tropical system will be the only drought buster for the lake shadow.

Yeah, the training MCS' and cells that late summer were many around here, some crazy rainfall totals in spots through August and September.  It's fine if we have to wait until then, as long as it delivers.

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42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


It’s still there.


.

For western zones maybe.  It's hard to say how long it takes for the ridge to build east with the new east coast cutoff clogging things up.  Backdoor easterly flow knocking down the ridge looks possible at times.  Looks like a warm dry pattern, but intense heat confined to the plains for a while.  I just hope Friday night delivers some rain here because after that things get real dry.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Have not looked at it at all but there's a slight risk from Lake Michigan westward tomorrow.

looks like another MCV/shortwave rolling along the Minnesota Iowa border through the afternoon and reaching Illinois/Wisconsin just after peak heating.

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MKX with this nugget in the HWO...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a small chance for thunderstorms on Friday, and again
Saturday night and Sunday. Thunderstorm chances return next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and
again next Wednesday.

Highly unusual for them to imply possible spotter activation nearly a week out, especially in a nondescript, low-predictability summer ridge pattern like the one we're in. The GFS does show some actual deep-layer shear getting into the region mid-next week for a change. Or, it's possible somebody was just bored.

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