frostfern Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: The origins of those storms were in SC Wisconsin I believe and gave us the Eagle tornado the evening of the 21st. On the 18th there were two consecutive derechos that came through many of the same areas (we were only impacted by one here but it was still noteworthy). It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan. Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good. Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day. Annoying aspect of summer climatology here. The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though. It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, frostfern said: It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan. Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good. Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day. Annoying aspect of summer climatology here. The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though. It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates. It happens here too where the lake diminishes the storms via the lake breeze, another impressive aspect of that June 21 complex. There were E/SE winds all day, highs in the mid 70s and plenty of cloud cover yet the storms did not weaken at all (and lasted well beyond Milwaukee obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Friday looks interesting. Strongest 700-500mb flow is across WI and lower MI. Lapse rates are on the meh side, but instability is more than sufficient for severe given the progged shear. This should result in some bowing segments ahead of the front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 7 hours ago, frostfern said: It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan. Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good. Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day. Annoying aspect of summer climatology here. The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though. It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates. That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 gonna be a chill day of photogenic lapse rate storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 After Friday it's back to the boring blocky pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa. It's all relative, but in mid-summer generally the farther west you go the better. This looks like a repeat of 2018, warm but blocky with no ring-of-fire setup until late August. Probably something to do with arctic warming. Stratiform tropical system will be the only drought buster for the lake shadow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Love the way these cu look going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Love the way these cu look going upYou’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 55 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya. . It’s the little things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya. . Your just mad the med range heat was a mirage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: You’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya. . No problem with that, but in the severe thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 3 hours ago, frostfern said: It's all relative, but in mid-summer generally the farther west you go the better. This looks like a repeat of 2018, warm but blocky with no ring-of-fire setup until late August. Probably something to do with arctic warming. Stratiform tropical system will be the only drought buster for the lake shadow. Yeah, the training MCS' and cells that late summer were many around here, some crazy rainfall totals in spots through August and September. It's fine if we have to wait until then, as long as it delivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Your just mad the med range heat was a mirage It’s still there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Friday looking more and more interesting for S Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s still there. . For western zones maybe. It's hard to say how long it takes for the ridge to build east with the new east coast cutoff clogging things up. Backdoor easterly flow knocking down the ridge looks possible at times. Looks like a warm dry pattern, but intense heat confined to the plains for a while. I just hope Friday night delivers some rain here because after that things get real dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 3 hours ago, madwx said: Friday looking more and more interesting for S Wisconsin It better be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 Have not looked at it at all but there's a slight risk from Lake Michigan westward tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Have not looked at it at all but there's a slight risk from Lake Michigan westward tomorrow. looks like another MCV/shortwave rolling along the Minnesota Iowa border through the afternoon and reaching Illinois/Wisconsin just after peak heating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 MKX with this nugget in the HWO... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a small chance for thunderstorms on Friday, and again Saturday night and Sunday. Thunderstorm chances return next Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again next Wednesday. Highly unusual for them to imply possible spotter activation nearly a week out, especially in a nondescript, low-predictability summer ridge pattern like the one we're in. The GFS does show some actual deep-layer shear getting into the region mid-next week for a change. Or, it's possible somebody was just bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Today isn’t looking like anything special, marginal severe threat at best around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I'm hopeful we can get something good this afternoon. If not strong/severe, at least something with thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 we're going to have outflow boundaries galore over southern Wisconsin so that might be able to elevate some storms from an average t-storm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 CRAZY tornado in Minnesota yesterday! This is some of the most ridiculous tornado footage I've ever seen. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, fluoronium said: CRAZY tornado in Minnesota yesterday! This is some of the most ridiculous tornado footage I've ever seen. I wouldn't have done it, but that is pretty bad ass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, fluoronium said: CRAZY tornado in Minnesota yesterday! This is some of the most ridiculous tornado footage I've ever seen. What was the language on the tornado warning? Forward speed of 1-2mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: What was the language on the tornado warning? Forward speed of 1-2mph? LOL.. more like figure 8s at 2mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Separately, MD discussion for what looks like a potential STW eastern IA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Saturday looking potentially interesting in Wisconsin on the NAM and 3km NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 35 minutes ago, madwx said: Saturday looking potentially interesting in Wisconsin on the NAM and 3km NAM. Haven't had many NW flow setups yet, but this could easily be a decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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