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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Allan's 1st call map is out.

 

ERI5TXyWoAEC_5q.jpg

Hard to put faith into a map that doesn’t even include a B on it 

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3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Allan's 1st call map is out.

 

ERI5TXyWoAEC_5q.jpg

Good to see he made me the nexus of all zones. :)

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13 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Hard to put faith into a map that doesn’t even include a B on it 

Haha, noticed that too. But I went to MS State, so I figured it out.

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Just now, Wow said:

Good to see he made me the nexus of all zones. :)

I like where we are sitting @Wow, I think we will be just far enough north to not have too much mixing issues, just need the precip

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i'm not trying to get my hopes up too high as many of us know..but i will say that in the past, alot of storms trended warmer and less snowy the closer we got. this is the opposite.   it's been trending snowier and storms that trend snowier the closer you get tend to verify. local mets and NWS will always be conservative until the signs are too strong to be denied.   Always easier to bust with higher totals than getting cold rain when you predict 10 inches. I like Eric Webb's take on this.  also WXSOUTH, one of the mets i respect the most had a great discussion on why this thing might overperform.

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The short range models can’t even get the forecast right, it’s supposed to be pouring in Charlotte right now. So really there’s no telling what tomorrow will bring.


.

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I agree with Allan's placements, but would lower the amounts by 1-2 inches for each zone.  I would be SHOCKED if southern wake got 1-3 inches.  I could see a trace to one inch of sleet/snow slush.

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9 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Haha, noticed that,too. But I went to MS State, so I figured it out.

There's a joke somewhere in here about the Ole Miss forecaster spilling alcohol all over his forecast.

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

SREF plumes for KHKY.  A two-inch mean isn't too shabby for this uneventful winter, so far.

8iHvVly.png

New SREF will be out in about 30 mins.. would be nice to see them start to cluster more and have less spread.

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35 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

I like where we are sitting @Wow, I think we will be just far enough north to not have too much mixing issues, just need the precip

I'm worried about surface temps.  Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing.  Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing.  Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon.  Sigh.  Hoping things tick colder today. 

Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. 

image.thumb.png.4cda28bccdeddae6f3b3358c9c4ff150.png

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

I'm worried about surface temps.  Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing.  Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing.  Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon.  Sigh.  Hoping things tick colder today. 

Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. 

 

I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals?

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Yesterday afternoon, at 15z, SREF mean for RDU was around 2". Now we're sitting at half a foot at 9z today. 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals?

Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam. 

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I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground.

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam. 

My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS. 

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Just now, Wow said:

I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground.

It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago. 

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I’m still learning on here and therefore don’t necessarily know what all pieces are important for the models. Are all the important players now onshore and in a position to be well sampled?

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground.

I am just glad that Tim Buckley was man enough to go all in yesterday.  Maybe that will help us not have a grocery store/gas station apocalypse the day that the snow is falling.

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Hi all, I’m usually lurking but I just moved to Norfolk a few weeks ago (from Georgia). Does anyone have/remember an analogous event to compare this potential storm to for the Hampton Roads area? 

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Just now, SnowJoMoJo said:

I’m still learning on here and therefore don’t necessarily know what all pieces are important for the models. Are all the important players now onshore and in a position to be well sampled?

Yes, that would be correct.

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