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mackerel_sky

2/8/2020 Snow Event

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Not understanding why the meso models are showing the precip coming from the SW, yet drying up as it crosses the relatively low SC uplands. It's not like it's slamming up against really cold/dry air. But I guess it's not that strong to begin with.

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My god, the futurecast radar looks like complete s**t now! Uggggh, plenty of moisture, the R/S line is at the N.C./SC border the whole event! NGA still gets plastered!:mellow:

Yeah, don't get your hopes up Mack; we underperform waaay more than we overperfom. Hope to see some flakes and mabe we'll get a surprise dusting like before. The little line in N Bama has dissapated again and doesn't want to get it's act together. The main peice may be this bit of rain blossoming back near Starkville MS. If so, that's pretty far West and may have trouble getting here early enough anyway. I can't stay up or i'd be interested to watch the radars over the next two hours. 

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Cloud tops growing over AR and OK. 

That's the main piece of the disturbance. 

Also watch the radar....  particularly north Central  MS.

Rooting for ya GA and SC folks.

20200390436_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-13-2500x150

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57 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Not understanding why the meso models are showing the precip coming from the SW, yet drying up as it crosses the relatively low SC uplands. It's not like it's slamming up against really cold/dry air. But I guess it's not that strong to begin with.

This is simply a very weak upper level wave that tracks roughly from Kansas into TN / NGA.  It manages to maximize some low level forcing to generate precip focused across north Bama, north GA, and W SC, before weakening further from there.  This system is following right on the heals of the strong system that moved thru yesterday, so it doesn’t have room to amplify and strengthen.  With the prevalent southeast ridging, it's pretty much a requirement to get a quick-hitting follow-up system like this for wintry interests...temperatures would warm ahead of any significant system to prevent wintry precip.

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False alarm! GSP finally came around.Screenshot_20200208-011050.thumb.png.2421bd2b73c617bde375df600a7705d3.png
At least they didn't wait til it was halfway over this time lol 
Where u at snowdog

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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GSP NWS has perked up

As of 100 AM EST: Much more will follow shortly as the forecast adjustments are underway, but concern for accumulating snow today is growing across northeast Georgia and at least the western Upstate of South Carolina. Water vapor paints the culprit shortwave diving into the lower MS River Valley at this hour. Generally clear skies and excellent radiating conditions over the southeast ahead of this system have permitted cool and dry air to settle into place across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The upstream wave will bring a short window of robust upper jet divergence and deep layer DPVA across the forecast area mainly during the 15Z to 21Z window. The forecast will lean heavily toward the colder NAM profiles as the operational GFS is a warm outlier among the earlier GEFS plumes. Lapse rates will briefly steepen up as well with the passing wave to boost precip rates at times. All told, we are contemplating a Winter Storm Warning across the northeast GA mountains, and an expansion of the Advisory into the mountain valleys and across the western Upstate of SC. Some sort of mix mention will likely be needed in forecast out across the I-77 corridor as well, including the Charlotte metro area. The main lingering question mark is that some mid-level drying wraps into the picture from the WSW this afternoon, and that could undercut ice nucleation and associated snow/accums.

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Winter Storm Warning up for NE GA counties.  I am one county out of the game but pretty excited that my forecasted temp is currently 4 degrees colder and rain is ahead of schedule in Alabama.  

WSW.png

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Sure is a sharp cutoff. Cherokee and Forsyth under Warnings and the airport isnt even under an Advisory. Can 40 miles really make that much of a difference ?

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5 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

It can when it looks like this.  

The line of disappointment will be sharp today in GA. 

NAM 3k.png

I would definitely be excited if I was in Canton or Cumming but it looks like most of metro Atl will get mostly rain. The good news is that for snow starved Atlantans, the snow is just a short drive away.

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What is interesting is the moisture falling right now in Alabama is not on any of the maps at this hour.  The HRRR and the NAM are all too slow by 3-4 hours for the development of moisture.  My temp at my house is 4 degrees below forecast and even as I type this is falling.  

I am not sure what it will mean downstream for snow development but I can say with a lot of confidence the model guidance at this hour does not match up on timing and the moisture is more robust than modeled.

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8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m at 28 degrees. Well, somebody is going to be wrong today. :arrowhead: :violin:

For sure.

Looking at temperature panels, those are a big bust for this morning.  Again, not sure what that will mean down stream.

Also, moisture on radar is not reaching the ground in Alabama so let the virga storm begin.  LOL

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That is crazy. Goes from a warning in my county to nothing in south Fulton and Douglas. Just means I'll be smelling the rain all day here but hopefully will stay on the good side. It's only 28 here btw.

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Sure is a sharp cutoff. Cherokee and Forsyth under Warnings and the airport isnt even under an Advisory. Can 40 miles really make that much of a difference ?

The main difference is the 870-950 layer.  It’s ever so slightly colder in those areas than ATL is.  If precip rates are heavy though I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL itself saw an hour or so of moderate snow 

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This has to be the smallest snow event I've ever seen but I'm pulling for you guys to see some accums.  It's like your own little private party and you rented a 100 mile wide cloud to make snow.  :lol:

Good luck and enjoy!

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Man its 25 here and likely to drop another degree..then clouds roll in and cap it off. Let's get this blizzard going! Lol

Nice returns in Ga already

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

Man its 25 here and likely to drop another degree..then clouds roll in and cap it off. Let's get this blizzard going! Lol

Nice returns in Ga already

Glad to see someone in the southeast benefit from the weather!!!

 

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24 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Man its 25 here and likely to drop another degree..then clouds roll in and cap it off. Let's get this blizzard going! Lol

Nice returns in Ga already

I think this will be our big problem. 25 here but CLEAR. Temps can easily rise into the mid 30s or higher in just an hour or so of sun. Needed clouds already in with precip falling now.

 

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I think this will be our big problem. 25 here but CLEAR. Temps can easily rise into the mid 30s or higher in just an hour or so of sun. Needed clouds already in with precip falling now.

 

Yep I agree..bad timing gonna kill our chances I'm afraid

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Temps were 41 degrees with that last storm where we got heavy wet snow that switched from light rain/snow mix. The surface layer was also completely saturated at 41 degrees and the 850-950mb layer was much warmer than it is now.  Heavy snow continued for several hours here and temp dropped down to 34 degrees by 11am with that storm.

Grant it, that storm had more qpf to work with, but my point is that even if we warm up to 36-40 degrees over the next couple of hours, temps are still way below freezing at 950mb and above, and we had room for wetbulbing at the surface since dewpoints will be in the mid/upper 20's. We still want to stay as cold as possible b/c it looks like we're only getting .1-.3 of liquid with this storm and it will suck to waste any of it on mix/white rain. but there is no doubt NE GA/western upstate will see big fluffy snow today, and i'd be suprised if these area's don't get a dusting at minimum with 1-3 inches for gainesville/toccoa/clayton/cornelia/walhalla.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Temps was 41 degrees with that last storm where we got heavy wet snow that switched from light rain/snow mix. The surface layer was also completely saturated at 41 degrees and the 850-950mb layer was much warmer than it is now.  Heavy snow continued for several hours here and temp dropped down to 34 degrees by 11am with that storm.

Grant it, that storm had more qpf to work with, but my point is that even if we warm up to 36-40 degrees over the next couple of hours, temps are still way below freezing at 950mb and above, and we had room for wetbulbing at the surface since dewpoints will be in the mid/upper 20's. We still want to stay as cold as possible b/c it looks like we're only getting .1-.3 of liquid with this storm and it will suck to waste any of it on mix/white rain. but there is no doubt NE GA/western upstate will see big fluffy snow today, and i'd be suprised if these area's don't get a dusting at minimum with 1-3 inches for gainesville/toccoa/clayton/cornelia/walhalla.

 

 

You may he right but I don't live in any of those places. I want snow here!:D:snowing:

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