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mackerel_sky

2/8/2020 Snow Event

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HRRR, Out too 11Z Tomorrow, Just before Kick-Off...

 

I sincerely,, Hope ya'll cash in & I HOPE, it's a Over-Performer! :snowwindow:  We've been having a High suicide rate of Cliff-Divers this Winter..:sled::snowing:

 

HRRR.JPG

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Might as well bring the discusion from the main thread here. The maps look very pretty and all but I remain very skeptical for the upstate. While we probably see snow fall (which is better than nothing) I think any accumulation is going to be hard to come by. It's really too bad this doesn't get going about 6 hours earlier; NGA by tonight and the upstate by about 4-5am. I love watching snow fall as much as the next guy, but watching it melt as soon as it hits the ground is almost more painful than never seeing it fall to begin with. I (and the kids) would really love to have at least a couple inches to play in, but unless this really overperforms, it's probably one of those teaser type things. If I was in NGA and highest elevations of the upstate I would be very excited for the prospect though. Oconee may do the best (for a change) since the cold profile is in place (rather than having to wait on CAA or a wedge) and moiture gets there the earliest. Outside of that we'll see. I keep dreaming that one day we'll get the total profile cold with a moisture feed like yesterday, but alas... 

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

 I keep dreaming that one day we'll get the total profile cold with a moisture feed like yesterday, but alas... 

10-1 Ratio,(Or better) as in,, like 40~60 inches of that fluffy White Stuff?? With those High wind(s).. OH MY... A Blizzard & White-out condition(s)?? 

I assume if you wanna, dream,, gotta,, DREAM BIG or go home.. :snowing::thumbsup:

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The trends (within 24 hrs of start time) have been very favorable for this system. I think start time is important, but it's also early February and the cold air is in place, so I don't think it's as detrimental as it would be a few weeks from now (still not ideal but I don't think that is the deal breaker). Moisture is the biggest concern (and seeing what boundary temps are at start time). Not much moisture to burn with this system so every flake counts, literally. I think accumulating snow outside of NE GA and the highlands of SC is less likely, but systems like this can spring surprises. Hi-res and short range models are certainly beefing up precip and this has even translated to the GFS, EUR), ICON, and CMC. All things are trending better for some potential advisory-level snows and that is pretty exciting this year. With this system, I'd look for the moisture then worry about the temps. Thermals are as good as you could want for snow in the deep south besides the boundary layer.

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all the short range models are consistent with this event starting in North central GA around 9:30 or 10:00am.  Starts for Oconee/Pickens in the western upstate around 11:00am.   Seems like the short range models are all jack potting the area around lake Lanier to Gainesville to Gwinnettecounty with anywhere from .3 to .5 inches of liquid equivalent. 

Modlels are showing any where from .05-.3 inches of liquid for the western upstate. 

I feel very confident that the Cherokee county, GA/Lake Lanier/Gainesville/ Gwinnett area is going to get accumulations.  Wouldn't be surprised if someone in this area gets close to 3 inches.

People above 1500' in Georgia are a virtual lock to get 1-3 inches unless the precip grossly under-performs.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

all the short range models are consistent with this event starting in North central GA around 9:30 or 10:00am.  Starts for Oconee/Pickens in the western upstate around 11:00am.   Seems like the short range models are all jack potting the area around lake Lanier to Gainesville to Gwinnettecounty with anywhere from .3 to .5 inches of liquid equivalent. 

Modlels are showing any where from .05-.3 inches of liquid for the western upstate. 

I feel very confident that the Cherokee county, GA/Lake Lanier/Gainesville/ Gwinnett area is going to get accumulations.  Wouldn't be surprised if someone in this area gets close to 3 inches.

People above 1500' in Georgia are a virtual lock to get 1-3 inches unless the precip grossly under-performs.

If the precipitation preforms as shown, it is a good possibly... 

Heres to hope. 

 

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I will be heading up to Gainesville tonight and will report back with pics and obs hopefully as the event progresses. After being essentially blanked last year, a few inches would be a nice consolation prize for this "winter."

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Well my phone just off for a weather advisory. Hoping the trends continue on this one - even an inch at this point would be a win lol. It’s 36 and cloudy right now

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1 minute ago, NEGa said:

Well my phone just off for a weather advisory. Hoping the trends continue on this one - even an inch at this point would be a win lol. It’s 36 and cloudy right now

I think you're in as good a spot as any for this system. Good luck!

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3 minutes ago, Jonathang80 said:

Hope this does not turn into 2011 all over again with the roads.

 

I don't think so but I can see a lot of people getting there milk and bread in the morning:blink:

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Just now, Extreme NEGA said:

I don't think so but I can see a lot of people getting there milk and bread in the morning:blink:

 

There will be a lot of french toast making.  Never got the whole bread and milk thing. 

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Might as well bring the discusion from the main thread here. The maps look very pretty and all but I remain very skeptical for the upstate. While we probably see snow fall (which is better than nothing) I think any accumulation is going to be hard to come by. It's really too bad this doesn't get going about 6 hours earlier; NGA by tonight and the upstate by about 4-5am. I love watching snow fall as much as the next guy, but watching it melt as soon as it hits the ground is almost more painful than never seeing it fall to begin with. I (and the kids) would really love to have at least a couple inches to play in, but unless this really overperforms, it's probably one of those teaser type things. If I was in NGA and highest elevations of the upstate I would be very excited for the prospect though. Oconee may do the best (for a change) since the cold profile is in place (rather than having to wait on CAA or a wedge) and moiture gets there the earliest. Outside of that we'll see. I keep dreaming that one day we'll get the total profile cold with a moisture feed like yesterday, but alas... 

Anxiously awaiting the 4 o’clock local met updates! See what the hype/ignoring level is! Can almost guarantee KK elwill be all rain/token flakes, CJ will be in half -weenie mode, they should tread lightly after last weeks suprise/ bust!

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From ATL:

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 .

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850 shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to cause some slick spots Sunday morning.

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anxiously awaiting the 4 o’clock local met updates! See what the hype/ignoring level is! Can almost guarantee KK elwill be all rain/token flakes, CJ will be in half -weenie mode, they should tread lightly after last weeks suprise/ bust!

NM, just saw CJ Facebook post, downplaying as a non event, rain snow mix! Man, he’s the best!:ph34r:

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