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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s like he stopped trying to hit singles and only swings for the fences now. And he seems increasingly frustrated with it all also.

Had he continued to forecast and review models and provide useful old fashion weather input like he did 20 years ago he would have many times more followers versus the way he has branched off into climate debate and reversing his stance on the long range patterns. I would look forward with eager anticipation to his daily posts many years ago.  What he knows still rivals the models at times but he refuses to use that approach any longer, except maybe on an occasion or two. I also note the frustration as well.     

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Just like the GEFS, nothing to see here on the EPS through at least the end of the month. The means have been consistently unenthusiastic about snow chances for this region.

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A nice improvement on the EPS imo.  Not quite good enough to see the snow mean jump but another tick in the right direction at 0z would get some of those amped solutions closer to the coast.

pPD02sJ.png

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS!  

Where have we seen this before 

 

It is inevitable this winter. The model with the worst possible look for snow here will end up correct.

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Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS!  
Where have we seen this before 
CFAA238D-F309-469F-87B5-D99B8CC1D1D6.thumb.png.45abcf7a3c3480f7bd9bb637425a802e.png
Brutal. We basically have until the 3rd and it's over. Again

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A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath?

Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring.

gfs_z500a_namer_24.png

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A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath?
Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring.
gfs_z500a_namer_24.png&key=7cd1c6533eec46b6750fdf83a391b4cc8294dad4cac8dbdb64328325b3836e84
This is bottom of 9th and were are down by 11 runs

6b5907d421964135c2406dd8e44dc532.jpg

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^The problem with this mess of a pattern is it requires a bunch of needle threading to even have a chance. The ultimate fluke. The "better" window was supposed to be just beyond next weekend. Ofc that is now in doubt, as if we didn't know that was coming lol.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is inevitable this winter. The model with the worst possible look for snow here will end up correct.

When we were entering this god awful pattern I saw a lot of posts with a “we will probably get lucky somewhere” attitude but I kept thinking “ehh unlikely in this look”. The years with this pattern where we got some snow usually it was around the fringes, early before it set in or late. We didn’t get lucky early so now we are left needing some luck late. But most of the analogs to that look we’re am absolute barren wasteland once that pattern locked in for the duration of Jan and Feb. 

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Yeah for flooding rains well up into NE lol.

Great event for Garrett county

As you well know, its a different world out there.

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I've never seem a winter where there has been no action on left side of box..kind of eerie24efd0f668a515b9d269409697bd8a7e.gif&key=5a20f0a94eedab3aa2810028aecfaa85133d19965c55df3df96b87de77fe141a

 

 

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As you well know, its a different world out there.
Oh yea...just trying to find somewhere to drive. I've given up around here lol
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I think the past few years has really exposed judah cohen. He is biased towards snow and cold and he is super unreliable

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath?

Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring.

gfs_z500a_namer_24.png

Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east.  The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion.  That obviously would have significantly increased our odds. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
As you well know, its a different world out there.

Oh yea...just trying to find somewhere to drive. I've given up around here lol

There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I've never seem a winter where there has been no action on left side of box..kind of eerie24efd0f668a515b9d269409697bd8a7e.gif&key=5a20f0a94eedab3aa2810028aecfaa85133d19965c55df3df96b87de77fe141a

 

 

There are waves in those phases problem is since early Jan there has been a more dominant standing wave in the western Pac muting any effect both on that chart and the pattern of any convection in favorable locations. 

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There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow.
Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lol
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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east.  The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion.  That obviously would have significantly increased our odds. 

Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh

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42 minutes ago, Ji said:

What a winter. We haven't even been teased. We never got into nam range lol

What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:
There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow.

Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lol

I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want.  Been looking hard at places in the Tug.  Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. 

If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall.  I like solitude man...especially in winter.  Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home.  So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet.

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I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want.  Been looking hard at places in the Tug.  Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. 
If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall.  I like solitude man...especially in winter.  Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home.  So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet.
Man I've had those exact same thoughts. I was looking at places near lake superior last week where you got like 300 inches this winter. My mood is so much better when winter is in my life. Thjs has been so depressing

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh

I hope it is over it cannot end fast enough. Last thing we need is some St Patrick's Day threat showing a MECS under 60 hours then disintegrating into nothingness as the final straw. Let's just end this asap and hopefully reset the system next winter. 

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:
I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want.  Been looking hard at places in the Tug.  Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. 
If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall.  I like solitude man...especially in winter.  Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home.  So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet.

Man I've had those exact same thoughts. I was looking at places near lake superior last week where you got like 300 inches this winter. My mood is so much better when winter is in my life. Thjs has been so depressing

You and @Maestrobjwa should go halves on a cabin in the woods. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

When we were entering this god awful pattern I saw a lot of posts with a “we will probably get lucky somewhere” attitude but I kept thinking “ehh unlikely in this look”. The years with this pattern where we got some snow usually it was around the fringes, early before it set in or late. We didn’t get lucky early so now we are left needing some luck late. But most of the analogs to that look we’re am absolute barren wasteland once that pattern locked in for the duration of Jan and Feb. 

If 300-400 miles south of us can score in this horrible pattern, we certainly could have.

 

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