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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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WB 12Z GEFS.....period to watch remains end of February into the first week of March.  (The only area showing prob. before then is around SE VA for late this week.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-3409600.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-3409600.png

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Novice question here. Do we think the greater arctic sea ice extent (I believe highest for this date since 2010) will help reset the system so we get a different pattern next winter? I realize we may not even get a better pattern but any change would be good. In the mountains of West Virginia the last four winters have been very similar and crappy , other than March 2018.

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12 minutes ago, WVhighlands said:

Novice question here. Do we think the greater arctic sea ice extent (I believe highest for this date since 2010) will help reset the system so we get a different pattern next winter? I realize we may not even get a better pattern but any change would be good. In the mountains of West Virginia the last four winters have been very similar and crappy , other than March 2018.

It's nowhere close to the median- just doing a bit better than the last few years

 

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GFS took a solid jump north... it’s close for Central VA. Might make a thread if the 18z NAM looks decent to at least separate this event and the LR chat.


the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

 

Does the Titanic conjure up any images for you?

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

 

the euro just wont play ball for the southern weenies

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

is it a cycle though?

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And I’m not even sure if the Arctic ice is a big driver of the overall pattern. It may be, but I would have thought it would be the tropics.

I think its biggest impact is early in the season because you can have more cold air up north when the sea ice is strong. 

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6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

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AND

 

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the encouraging thing is when we were hoping to get more of a south trend on the euro...it went north!

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37 minutes ago, Ji said:

is it a cycle though?

Some is. The AO/NAO is very likely a cycle. But at the same time we are warming on a larger scale and the oceans are scorching. Could we have reached a tipping point?  It’s obvious things are skewing warmer. How much is natural cycles?  How much our fault?  I am not getting into all that and I don’t know. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro 240 looks awful man

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

Actually with that 50/50 the system coming through the west there "could" be forced under us.  Suppression is likely the bigger issue.  It's far from a great look but its better than we have had a lot of winter.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually with that 50/50 the system coming through the west there "could" be forced under us.  Suppression is likely the bigger issue.  It's far from a great look but its better than we have had a lot of winter.  

how long is that 50/50 going to hold though without any blocking? it seems like more of the SOS

edit--there looks like there is some ridging under greenland that may allow it to hold?

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe...

I am trying here....really I am

dude March 58 is a JB all time favorite analog..he has been  using since i started following him 20 years ago every march

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude March 58 is a JB all time favorite analog..he has been  using since i started following him 20 years ago every march

he uses that after his March 1993 analog goes by the wayside--which it always does

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

how long is that 50/50 going to hold though without any blocking? it seems like more of the SOS

edit--there looks like there is some ridging under greenland that may allow it to hold?

Yea it will move out, it needs too or NOTHING can happen with that vortex sitting over Maine...but look at the limited spacing between the waves.  By the time the NW flow and confluence relaxes behind that 50/50 the next wave should be approaching.  The spacing there looks good, and if anything, too tight.  But yes you are rightfully pointing out the flaws...its far from a perfect setup, but I am just saying its more workable that the crap we have been looking at 99% of the time.  Low bar and all...

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

he uses that after his March 1993 analog goes by the wayside--which it always does

March 58 was way less of a "fluke" than March 93.  We could repeat the 93 pattern 100 times and not get that result.  March 58 was a legit awesome pattern that would produce most of the time if repeated.  Of course none of that matters since March 58 is just one analog, most are actually crap.  But a few did evolve into something but the ones that did the NAO tanked later in March...do we really see that happening?

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow problem with the day 7 system is we need to get lucky with a NS feature to suppress but right now the NS energy is coming in on top of the system or behind it.  That might suppress the system but its also going to wreck the mid levels and also prevent any good closed circulation to form, thus no good precip shield just the showery crap we see right now on guidance.  We need to see a trend towards getting a NS system to come across ahead of the system.  I suppose it's far enough out that is still possible, and the ridge axis across Canada is good enough that if we had some confluence in front it could work...but we haven't had that kind of luck all year.  

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have been keeping an eye on that as well. Temps will be an issue though and I am not sure how we can achieve the temps needed without killing the SW before it can have an impact on us.

 

I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period.

 

 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period.

 

 

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south.  That one is getting closer on the EPS.  It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.  

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe...

I am trying here....really I am

Appreciate your posts and recognition of the realities this winter season.  Early March has been a window for a while, and was even mentioned back in December, although more in the context of a back loaded winter. Statistically, even in this horrendous winter we could score something white.  Still fun to see if we can get an anomalous snow event. 

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List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today.


“Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”


.

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Just now, WeatherShak said:

List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today.


“Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”


.

This year is especially favorable for a March maximum.  Even a generic 3" - 5" event would top the winter for just about all the climo spots in the LWX CWA.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south.  That one is getting closer on the EPS.  It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.  

As I have been saying (or nagging about :lol:) for the last week we really need to not see the massive dump of the NS in the west. It's hell trying to make lemonade out of the big lemon of a look we would get with the huge height builds it would create in the East. Get that dump to bypass the west and dump farther east and good things are possible. And I think that SW we are talking about could possibly be a major player in that case. Models are really starting to show this feature stronger and progressing farther east then just a few days ago. Get the NS to phase with that somewhere in the east (as you mentioned above) to get a stronger system to setup confluence to our NE and our prospects look brighter. Models are also picking up on a little more active and more pressing NS as the closed low moves eastward then on previous runs all of which could make or break our possibilities with forcing suppression on that feature as it is moving eastward. But those things won't mean much, IF WE SEE THE NS DUMP INTO THE WEST. Guess everybody now knows where I stand. :D

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If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow

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