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Itstrainingtime

Central PA - February 2020

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When does winter start? I am trying to process all of the reasons why winters just haven't produced like they did as a kid. It is insane, really. Going out today no jacket no need for one. We have tracked basically nothing from November until now. And you can look this upcoming weekend already as failure. Maybe another dusting, if that. I look at the long range and everyone on these other forums are trying to be positive for a specific period but there is not much. #SuperStorminMarch. :-) 

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20 minutes ago, paweather said:

When does winter start? I am trying to process all of the reasons why winters just haven't produced like they did as a kid. It is insane, really. Going out today no jacket no need for one. We have tracked basically nothing from November until now. And you can look this upcoming weekend already as failure. Maybe another dusting, if that. I look at the long range and everyone on these other forums are trying to be positive for a specific period but there is not much. #SuperStorminMarch. :-) 

I think Sunday (or Sat night)  has potential albeit again still not overly cold so temps are as much a question as the storm itself. 

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52 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The devil has taken over the weather.  In all seriousness, good call @Bubbler86 soon as the sun popped out temp shot up higher than yesterday.    

7CD0A4E5-930B-4430-997A-8CD66913BBB4.jpeg

It only takes me seeing then models under do temps so many times before I start to learn the routine.  LOL.  Looks like MDT is not going to make 60.  Capital City did.  Nam did a good job of seeing the CAD or CAD like differences in the eastern LSV just 5-10 degrees too low across the board. 

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It only takes me seeing then models under do temps so many times before I start to learn the routine.  LOL.  Looks like MDT is not going to make 60.  Capital City did.  Nam did a good job of seeing the CAD or CAD like differences in the eastern LSV just 5-10 degrees too low across the board. 

Must be the MDT microclimate, I'm up to 65.2 here. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm anxiously awaiting @MAG5035's afternoon update where he's going to explain how the northern tier gets snow in the next couple of days followed by the southern tier on Saturday night/Sunday AM. :) 

Hopefully the Euro is leading the way with the trailing vort coming through Saturday night. 

I've been pretty busy the last couple days, I'll be able to update on things a bit more later on this eve. For the Friday potential there's still some support for a potential changeover in the central counties that still needs resolved. There's a lot of low pressure waves running this boundary and I think the last one Friday can happen if the frontal boundary is able to progress eastward enough. The NAM seems to be the only operational guidance showing much with that (back in the JST-AOO-UNV-IPT corridor), with the 12z GEFS showing a stripe of snowfall over that and more of C-PA into the Sus Valley. GEFS is probably too optimistic on cold pressing in that well, but a NAM type solution can't be discounted. 

For this wave over the weekend, I'll be interested to see how the thermal boundary recovers behind all the late week storminess. 12z Euro and ensembles have a WV/MD/NOVA/DC focus with this wave today. Still okay for the south central and southern tier of PA.  GFS has it more in PA but not as robust. I think this will be a viable threat once we get closer into range but I'd be really surprised if this took a bigger swing south of us than over us. We haven't been able to keep a northern branch low under us all year. 

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5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Maybe MDT sitting at the bottom of the ridges next the cold river has something to do with it

 

Most of my 25 minute drive home from work follows the river, and I'm about 1.5 miles away from it. My temp did rise 4 degrees in the final mile or so approaching home. 

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43 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Maybe MDT sitting at the bottom of the ridges next the cold river has something to do with it

 

That was my problem this morning. It was 50 in Hazleton at 1700' and 42 here in Tamaqua at 850'.

Once the sun came out, we mixed it up good, and the temp got up to 62 here.

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS & 18z GFS Target the Southern half of PA with a few inches of snow early Sunday.

I think that we are in a good spot for a few inches of snow out of this event.

 

 

If I were not worried about temps I would be gung ho for 4-6" lsv wide.  

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The next 2 weeks have the chance to become our best 2 weeks of winter to this point (which won’t take too much..lol)

With All caveats & grains of salt aside with regard to ensemble snow maps at range, these 15 & 16 day EPS & GEFS snow maps are the best of the season. They show at the very least that this pattern could have some potential.

Also, our first event could be arriving in just 5 days. More opportunities should follow the weekend threat.

Let’s do this!

#comebackwinter2020

 

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8DC2E155-61B9-41D8-9065-9B8E0E8719B5.png

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41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, what looked like  great setup for a low coming under us this weekend is just falling apart in virtual model world.  Head shaker...

Despite everything that's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm actually surprised to see this. Hopefully it comes back...but yeah...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Despite everything that's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm actually surprised to see this. Hopefully it comes back...but yeah...

Yea, I was worried about BL temps but not this...thought e had a nice piece of energy carving out a small trough with only one way to go, under us. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I was worried about BL temps but not this...thought e had a nice piece of energy carving out a small trough with only one way to go, under us. 

I was just checking and I can't find one model that's showing ANYTHING. Literally every model completely lost it simultaneously. Must have been sampling overnight? 

At least most in here have a WWA for tonight. They can have it, don't need freezing rain...

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Um what?

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
341 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

PAZ046-049>053-057>059-052100-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.200206T0100Z-200206T1500Z/
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Including the cities of Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,
Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, and Lebanon
341 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations
  of less than one inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  travel conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The higher elevations will likely see the
  greatest ice accumulation with lower amounts in the valleys.
  Bridges and overpasses are most susceptible to ice glaze.

 

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Ok, this makes absolutely no sense.  Cumberland county is in the WWA for tonight, yet my grid forecast has me with a low of 34 and says nothing but pure rain with a quarter to half inch expected.  Something's fishy...lol.

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Surprised no-one brought up the 3k NAM in here, that actually put a stripe of snows through the Sus Valley with the last low on Friday.. which by way is looking like quite a deep low. Could be one of the strongest coastal lows of the season if not the strongest. I don't know if a changeover gets to the Sus Valley in time but the Laurel's and north central are certainly well in play for seeing something and potentially parts of western and central as well as that seems to more of the focus of the Euro/GFS/Canadian (esp western PA). Gonna depend on how rapidly the low deepens and how far inland it tracks. Most guidance seems to have it too far inside for the Sus Valley attm. At any rate, given the disappearance of this weekend wave...this Friday thing might be the best opportunity for snow in the short-medium range. 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Surprised no-one brought up the 3k NAM in here, that actually put a stripe of snows through the Sus Valley with the last low on Friday.. which by way is looking like quite a deep low. Could be one of the strongest coastal lows of the season if not the strongest. I don't know if a changeover gets to the Sus Valley in time but the Laurel's and north central are certainly well in play for seeing something and potentially parts of western and central as well as that seems to more of the focus of the Euro/GFS/Canadian (esp western PA). Gonna depend on how rapidly the low deepens and how far inland it tracks. Most guidance seems to have it too far inside for the Sus Valley attm. At any rate, given the disappearance of this weekend wave...this Friday thing might be the best opportunity for snow in the short-medium-long range. 

Winter is quickly fading.  Starting to wonder if we ever recover this year....LR models now not pushing the boundary through at all.

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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Surprised no-one brought up the 3k NAM in here, that actually put a stripe of snows through the Sus Valley with the last low on Friday.. which by way is looking like quite a deep low. Could be one of the strongest coastal lows of the season if not the strongest. I don't know if a changeover gets to the Sus Valley in time but the Laurel's and north central are certainly well in play for seeing something and potentially parts of western and central as well as that seems to more of the focus of the Euro/GFS/Canadian (esp western PA). Gonna depend on how rapidly the low deepens and how far inland it tracks. Most guidance seems to have it too far inside for the Sus Valley attm. At any rate, given the disappearance of this weekend wave...this Friday thing might be the best opportunity for snow in the short-medium range. 

I did see that...but was too disheartened by the weekend fail to mention it. :) 

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32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Winter is quickly fading.  Starting to wonder if we ever recover this year....LR models now not pushing the boundary through at all.

It's over. 

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

It's over. 

I have to admit, I don't want to do the JI thing :-))) but man this is insane. Told my wife when was the last time I haven't started the snow blower up like this. I'm calling it over as JI would do in hope this changes the luck. Might sell the snow blower too. 

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11 minutes ago, paweather said:

I have to admit, I don't want to do the JI thing :-))) but man this is insane. Told my wife when was the last time I haven't started the snow blower up like this. I'm calling it over as JI would do in hope this changes the luck. Might sell the snow blower too. 

I was thinking about @SnowPlowGuy88 the other day (haven't seen him around lately). I feel for all those that livelihood depends on actual winter. Same for @Voyager who has little work because the calendar but in actuality it's been perfect weather for daytrips. 

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14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

It's over. 

 

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

I have to admit, I don't want to do the JI thing :-))) but man this is insane. Told my wife when was the last time I haven't started the snow blower up like this. I'm calling it over as JI would do in hope this changes the luck. Might sell the snow blower too. 

I keep hearing those words in my mind, mostly based on how bad it's been and with seemingly little hope going forward. 

I'm certainly NOT one to wear snow goggles...I just don't think we're done yet. In fact I'm expecting more than just one more snow event. I only say that because we shouldn't be lacking for opportunities and at some point I think the puck has to bounce our way a time or two. We'll see...

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On 2/3/2020 at 7:44 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks. I think it’s going to be a very active over the next few weeks. With the -EPO starting later this week, we should have plenty of chances. We will probably be on the wrong side for some of the chances, but I believe that we can win some as well.

Joe Bastardi today compared the upcoming pattern to February of 93-94. MDT had a top ten winter winter that year with over 70 inches of snow. I was in High School that year. I remember that February & March that there was a storm every week that would give several inches of snow topped with a little ice. Just to our south, these same storms in the I-95 area had mixing & rain. 

I am just looking forward to getting back in the game. Hopefully we get back on the snow board by this weekend. Then we will have 6 or 7 more weeks to make a run at climo average snow.

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Winter is quickly fading.  Starting to wonder if we ever recover this year....LR models now not pushing the boundary through at all.

I do see what JB is saying wrt to the overall pattern in 93-94 vs this Feb. There was generally a -EPO on that period (much more negative EPO period late Jan of 94) along with a -PNA, which we are running currently and a somewhat +NAO and -AO. The NAO that winter didn't really have any periods of significant + or -.

So I can see what he's saying with regards to a gradient type pattern, which we can score something from... but I certainly disagree on the potential to even come close to that winter. The dominant +NAO/AO is really hurting, especially combined with the -PNA in this case. So we get a decent EPO ridge in the progs.. but have a western trough (-PNA). That dumps cold to the west, which would be okay in a more neutral NAO/AO regime that allows the cold to spread east and southeast... but I just feel it is too much in the current predicament. You see this in the model forecasts where yea there has been good runs from time to time with plenty of snow.. but much more often it's runs of storm after storm after storm of p-type issues at best and cutters at worst. If we did get the snow over the weekend, it's likely going to be gone by early next week as heights quickly recover ahead of the next system. This winter has had all the hallmarks of a clunker, and we're getting to the point of the season where we need nothing short of a stunning reversal. I'm not ready for the Panic Room by any means, but I'm not particularly optimistic either right now.  

If we're playing the compare to legendary winters game, I feel 92-93 is a better fit. Aside from the prolific interior PA snowstorm in Dec '92, winter didn't show up again very much until later in February (very mild January) when we went on a run. But again, that Dec nor'easter and the March '93 superstorm were extreme anomalies within a winter that was generally mild. I just can't compare to 93-94 haha.. that one was wall to wall January into early March. UNV had 30"+ THREE MONTHS in a row (JFM), one of the worst if not the worst cold outbreaks ever in January (-18ºF at PSU with a -36ºF recorded SW of State College one of the mornings) and capped off by a nearly 30" snowstorm in early March. Just an incredible winter, this year we can hardly stay below 32ºF for a high lol.

1751049845_ScreenShot2020-02-05at2_56_49PM.png.b4ac38ebd5e66afcb9cb42f027f0252b.png1231313783_ScreenShot2020-02-05at2_57_25PM.png.ceff0905bf25f7497cbbd06714316887.png

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12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

I do see what JB is saying wrt to the overall pattern in 93-94 vs this Feb. There was generally a -EPO on that period (much more negative EPO period late Jan of 94) along with a -PNA, which we are running currently and a somewhat +NAO and -AO. The NAO that winter didn't really have any periods of significant + or -.

So I can see what he's saying with regards to a gradient type pattern, which we can score something from... but I certainly disagree on the potential to even come close to that winter. The dominant +NAO/AO is really hurting, especially combined with the -PNA in this case. So we get a decent EPO ridge in the progs.. but have a western trough (-PNA). That dumps cold to the west, which would be okay in a more neutral NAO/AO regime that allows the cold to spread east and southeast... but I just feel it is too much in the current predicament. You see this in the model forecasts where yea there has been good runs from time to time with plenty of snow.. but much more often it's runs of storm after storm after storm of p-type issues at best and cutters at worst. If we did get the snow over the weekend, it's likely going to be gone by early next week as heights quickly recover ahead of the next system. This winter has had all the hallmarks of a clunker, and we're getting to the point of the season where we need nothing short of a stunning reversal. I'm not ready for the Panic Room by any means, but I'm not particularly optimistic either right now.  

If we're comparing to legendary winters, I feel 92-93 is a better fit. Aside from the prolific interior PA snowstorm in Dec '92, winter didn't show up again very much until later in February (very mild January) when we went on a run. But again, that Dec nor'easter and the March '93 superstorm were extreme anomalies within a winter that was generally mild. I just can't compare to 93-94 haha.. that one was wall to wall January into early March. UNV had 30"+ THREE MONTHS in a row (JFM), one of the worst if not the worst cold outbreaks ever in January (-18ºF at PSU with a -36ºF recorded SW of State College one of the mornings) and capped off by a nearly 30" snowstorm in early March. Just an incredible winter, this year we can hardly stay below 32ºF for a high lol.

 

Mag, at this point, and taking into account the current longer range look of a still less than stellar pattern, I do not think any kind of reversal can save the winter as a whole.  Part of the fun of winter is the occasional white  landscape and cold related activities whether skiing or just sitting in front of a fire place.  Your locale is a good example.  You live in the southern half of PA and will always have warm periods in any given winter but unlike the LSV you are not suspect to warm invasions from a coastal that is too close to the LSV to do them good.  Your area should always have a decent snow storm or two every winter just being as far west as you are...getting sloppy seconds in late Feb or March is not a substitute for winter.  Unless the depictions on the LR models are off by quite a bit I think this winter goes down as a dud no matter how much snow we get in March.

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