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Central PA - February 2020


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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I always thought he was a big thunderstorm person and loved when they trained over one area.  :-). 

Well as Brian (daxx) can tell you I am NOT a huge severe weather guy.  I do enjoy a good storm at the beach though...and last year we had the mother of severe storms in KDH. There were reports the following day that we had winds over 80 mph. All I know is my daughter came running in our rental home from the top deck and was screaming that the adirondack chairs up there had become projectiles. I recovered them on the street after the storm passed. 

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22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a fan of the big L sitting over the Great Lakes, either. 

No, its not a good setup.  Almost like pity snow.  The front never really clears fully and retreats a bit after that snow.    Still something to watch.  I will be watching it for delays at the airport at least. Just the rain could cause delays. 

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I was pretty busy yesterday and this morning and am now starting to look into things again going forward and man was I having trouble finding something positive today. The renewed +AO surge had a lot of spread in the guidance the other day but looking at it today shows a pronounced return to the magnitude we saw in the first half of January, along with a surge back to a more solidly +NAO. Don't have to go much further into it to point out how the longer range of the models have responded to that, taking away what had been looking to be finally a more sustained period of cold weather. It's not that the cold isn't around.. it just isn't able to stick for more than a couple days at any kind of significant (-) anomaly... and it also makes us vulnerable to a high northern branch and/or cutter regime, depending on how much the PNA/EPO screws us up too. Certainly looking like a lot more of a challenge to go on a run of winter weather one could deem a "comeback". 

With all that said, next week does bare some watching. There's going to be a clash of temps on the frontal boundary and what appears to be a couple different waves to potentially run it. Not far off from a wintry mix/ice scenario with the first wave of precip mid week as cold temps bleed back down south at the surface with a somewhat modest high crossing north. Some guidance gets the mix into portions of C-PA. Then there's a second wave late week that runs up. GFS/Canadian run it up west of the mountains and the new Euro runs it up the coast, providing a swath of snow up through the middle of the state. So we'll have to watch how that evolves over the weekend and while we enjoy the run of warmth early next week. Sus Valley looks good for at least a couple days of 55-60, but far southern could certainly do better. I don't think we're going to see an all out heat wave, but all of us should see 50s and up for 2-3 days.

Sidenote: I've finally decided to give WeatherBell a try as I've wanted access to its better and more extensive ensemble products among other things, instead of say waiting to see someone post ensemble maps (usually in the Mid-Atl with the DC centered map) for instance. So I'm armed with all that now.  

 

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25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I was pretty busy yesterday and this morning and am now starting to look into things again going forward and man was I having trouble finding something positive today. The renewed +AO surge had a lot of spread in the guidance the other day but looking at it today shows a pronounced return to the magnitude we saw in the first half of January, along with a surge back to a more solidly +NAO. Don't have to go much further into it to point out how the longer range of the models have responded to that, taking away what had been looking to be finally a more sustained period of cold weather. It's not that the cold isn't around.. it just isn't able to stick for more than a couple days at any kind of significant (-) anomaly... and it also makes us vulnerable to a high northern branch and/or cutter regime, depending on how much the PNA/EPO screws us up too. Certainly looking like a lot more of a challenge to go on a run of winter weather one could deem a "comeback". 

With all that said, next week does bare some watching. There's going to be a clash of temps on the frontal boundary and what appears to be a couple different waves to potentially run it. Not far off from a wintry mix/ice scenario with the first wave of precip mid week as cold temps bleed back down south at the surface with a somewhat modest high crossing north. Some guidance gets the mix into portions of C-PA. Then there's a second wave late week that runs up. GFS/Canadian run it up west of the mountains and the new Euro runs it up the coast, providing a swath of snow up through the middle of the state. So we'll have to watch how that evolves over the weekend and while we enjoy the run of warmth early next week. Sus Valley looks good for at least a couple days of 55-60, but far southern could certainly do better. I don't think we're going to see an all out heat wave, but all of us should see 50s and up for 2-3 days.

Sidenote: I've finally decided to give WeatherBell a try as I've wanted access to its better and more extensive ensemble products among other things, instead of say waiting to see someone post ensemble maps (usually in the Mid-Atl with the DC centered map) for instance. So I'm armed with all that now.  

 

I think the biggest thing about the warm time coming is going to be the low temps.  I have not looked hard but have not found a data set of highest low temps for MDT yet.  There could potentially be two days next week where the temps stay above 50 all night.  Not unheard of but still possibly record worthy.

Post some of that ensemble data here and before you know it the MA will be lurking to steal our stuff.  :-)

 

Edit-I see the Euro cooled down low temps a bit for next week.  I was looking at the GFS which has MDT near 50 Tue and Wed morning. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What's with all this light snow in what's "supposed" to be an epic warm pattern this week? We had a round while we were out at dinner last night, and now one (or possibly two more) today?

The warm comes in full hog on Monday.  You may be spared some of it up there and there could be a sneaky mixed event between two warm episodes next week (model reading).

 

 

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