Voyager Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The warm comes in full hog on Monday. You may be spared some of it up there and there could be a sneaky mixed event between two warm episodes next week (model reading). Yeah, I saw that temps may only get into the low 50's up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 There won't be anything accumulating here today. Temp up to 39.6 and rising. We had a brief period of light rain here around 6:00pm yesterday. Just managed to leave some water droplets on my car. Woo-hoo! Can't believe Jan has come and gone with very little fanfare. What will Feb bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 12 GFS trended colder & brings a good amount of mixed precip to CTP & snow to northern & western areas of PA later this week with 2 of the boundary storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 12z GFS was a winter weather dream run. Besides the mixed potentials later next week, it has 2 more winter events over the next 2 weeks. First, it has a minor Clipper type storm next weekend. Then, it showed a major Miller B storm for Valentine’s Eve. It’s Shocking (inset sarcasm font...) to see that as soon as everyone (not in here necessarily) cancelled Winter, we could be looking at an exciting 2 weeks of tracking. Thank you Mr. EPO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Here is the EPO forecast from the overnight EPS. A negative EPO is one of better way ways to get a cold & stormy pattern into the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z Euro had a boatload of freezing rain with that second(ish) wave of low pressure late week and even some frozen at the end of the first wave and the start of the second. A press of cold air is becoming evident with a high sliding to the north on the models mid-week. How much of a press of cold will obviously determine what kind of p-type issues we have along with the track of the second low pressure wave, which would appear to be the primary event for widespread winter weather potential. 12z GFS relatively on it's own so far for the 12z model cycle tracking the low up the coast, as ensemble guidance seems to be currently more supportive of the low track the Euro and Canadian take with this. All have varying degrees of mixing. I know the Euro has shown what the 12z GFS has in a couple previous runs the last few days. A more progressive solution in a progressive themed winter certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, and that would help us in that scenario. There's going to be a lot to resolve the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I'm taking a 9.6" total for the winter into February with the largest snowfall being 2.1". Going back to 2000, the only worse start to date was 06-07. Other horrendous winters of note in that time frame.. 01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 all had January warning level snowfall events here.. with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones. Pretty special level of bad so far lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'm taking a 9.6" total for the winter into February with the largest snowfall being 2.1". Going back to 2000, the only worse start to date was 06-07. Other horrendous winters of note in that time frame.. 01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 all had January warning level snowfall events here.. with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones. Pretty special level of bad so far lol. We have EXACTLY the same seasonal total so far but got to it much differently as my biggest single event was 5.1" with a good bit more than that just to my southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: 12z Euro had a boatload of freezing rain with that second(ish) wave of low pressure late week and even some frozen at the end of the first wave and the start of the second. A press of cold air is becoming evident with a high sliding to the north on the models mid-week. How much of a press of cold will obviously determine what kind of p-type issues we have along with the track of the second low pressure wave, which would appear to be the primary event for widespread winter weather potential. 12z GFS relatively on it's own so far for the 12z model cycle tracking the low up the coast, as ensemble guidance seems to be currently more supportive of the low track the Euro and Canadian take with this. All have varying degrees of mixing. I know the Euro has shown what the 12z GFS has in a couple previous runs the last few days. A more progressive solution in a progressive themed winter certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, and that would help us in that scenario. There's going to be a lot to resolve the next few days. Yes, the Euro did look icy for CTP later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 18z GFS continues the trend of getting colder for the boundary storm potentials for late Wednesday into Friday. There is now more mixed precip further south into MD. Some snow even gets into the LSV, except for the far southeast. This period is getting more interesting with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 Blizz, all I will say about next week's threat is I think it's better when we have cold air pressing in rather than retreating. I do believe this could potentially trend a little better still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Blizz, all I will say about next week's threat is I think it's better when we have cold air pressing in rather than retreating. I do believe this could potentially trend a little better still... Yes, it’s nice to have cold air pressing in this time for a change this year. I agree, sometimes the models underestimate the cold air press. Also, once the cold pushes in, I’m not so sure that it will retreat much for that last storm for Friday am. Usually with this set up, each storm will ride up the boundary a little further south & east than the previous one. It should be an interesting week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 We over 1/2" of precip today. Most of it steady rain. A bit more than modeled. When the rain started coming down with some intensity it would start to turn to snow but then back off as the intensity dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We over 1/2" of precip today. Most of it steady rain. A bit more than modeled. When the rain started coming down with some intensity it would start to turn to snow but then back off as the intensity dropped. It's been raining pretty decent over this way the past 2 hours but I'm still shy of .25". I didn't see any snow last evening or today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The 18z GEFS had a nice uptick in colder solutions for later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's been raining pretty decent over this way the past 2 hours but I'm still shy of .25". I didn't see any snow last evening or today. I did not see any model solutions that showed an all day rain.. At least from 10am on here. Was quite surprised. We had intended to go to an outdoor event in Chambersburg and was a total no go since it so miserable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Pretty impressive temp drop, we left DC at 53 and in Frederick it was 42, in Gettysburg 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Nam still shows moderate snow tomorrow afternoon for Cumberland County and South East as it pertains to the LSV. White Rain with the surface temps. Could be interesting. 17Z map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam still shows moderate snow tomorrow afternoon for Cumberland County and South East as it pertains to the LSV. White Rain with the surface temps. Could be interesting. 17Z map. Hey at this point it would be cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Hey at this point it would be cool to see. I have been of the opinion that someone here sees some snow this weekend so keep commenting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have been of the opinion that someone here sees some snow this weekend so keep commenting on it. Radar looks fairly decent in western PA & most stations in the western half of PA are reporting light snow with temps in the low 30s as of 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 @MAG5035 Any snow out your way currently? What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 Any snow out your way currently? What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley? Yea it is snowing here with a light dusting on the ground and some heavier stuff about to move through. I'm sure something will survive over the mountains, and there might be some warm advection precip generated overnight into tomorrow before the warmer air moves in later tomorrow. This stuff moving through now might get eaten up off the mountains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Would say .5" so far...not bad for this winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 You guys to the south who got 0.25 to 0.50" of rainfall were on quite the gradient. I only got 0.03" of rainfall today. Looking forward to the wintry developments for later this week and maybe some mood flakes tomorrow?? Today was the 3rd consecutive Saturday that was inclement. Remember, 3 weeks ago today was the great snow/sleet storm of Jan 2020. (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Dusting of snow over in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The 0z Euro looks decent for the chance of a heavy coating of snow for most of CTP tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The 6z models all show a dusting to 1 inch of snow today for the LSV & a little more up towards I-80 is possible. @Itstrainingtime , it’s time for another “heavy coating” today ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Snow showers over night. Amounted mostly to a dusting on the cars. Brisket Chili and chicken for the Super Bowl tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, pawatch said: Snow showers over night. Amounted mostly to a dusting on the cars. Brisket Chili and chicken for the Super Bowl tonight. That’s great! We are making Chicken Chili & Italian Brisket sandwiches for the Super Bowl. Today could be nice with “snow TV” out the window & the game later on ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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