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Itstrainingtime

Central PA - February 2020

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50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I keep hearing those words in my mind, mostly based on how bad it's been and with seemingly little hope going forward. 

I'm certainly NOT one to wear snow goggles...I just don't think we're done yet. In fact I'm expecting more than just one more snow event. I only say that because we shouldn't be lacking for opportunities and at some point I think the puck has to bounce our way a time or two. We'll see...

I agree with you but give the LR look, how can we even think about anything related to winter weather right now. At this point, my hope is another Super Storm '93 in March that will fade some of what is occurring in the heart of winter. I feel for the snowmobilers. 

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will be a little surprised if they do not drop it for the LSV and maybe even the MSV. 

Maybe the 3 counties (Harrisburg area) above the non advised counties in the LSV but I doubt it. Any trace of ice constitutes a winter weather advisory and everyone's dewpoints are still in the 20s. They're probably going to ride on it till after precip arrives and go from there. 

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With precipitation moving back into the area tonight, temps will be important as to whether we get snow, freezing rain, sleet, or rain. Here are the expected low temperatures.

 

image.jpg

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe the 3 counties (Harrisburg area) above the non advised counties in the LSV but I doubt it. Any trace of ice constitutes a winter weather advisory and everyone's dewpoints are still in the 20s. They're probably going to ride on it till after precip arrives and go from there. 

Yea,  that's what I meant.  Franklin, Cumberland and at least part of Dauphin.  Its in the 40's in those areas right now and the zones have no mention of ZR.  The zones should at least match the advisory.  

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I keep hearing those words in my mind, mostly based on how bad it's been and with seemingly little hope going forward. 

I'm certainly NOT one to wear snow goggles...I just don't think we're done yet. In fact I'm expecting more than just one more snow event. I only say that because we shouldn't be lacking for opportunities and at some point I think the puck has to bounce our way a time or two. We'll see...

I don’t think that we are done with snow either. There are several opportunities in the pipeline. I think that things will bounce right for a couple of times as well.

Speaking of opportunities, did anyone look over the 18z GFS ? There are several chances showing up over the next 2 weeks. 

I don’t think that all of these will produce, but maybe one or two of them will find us on the right side of the boundary. I like seeing cold Highs to the north in Ontario & Quebec showing up next week through the end of the run. Maybe we can get some front end snow to ice storms that we can do well here in CTP.

#itsfarfromover

 

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We have had a few moments of tension here this  year but watching yet another decent poster get his ass handed to him in the MA I wanted to state my appreciation for most here.  NOT mentioning specific names but we have one top level met Who does not feel the need to mock others, then probably half a dozen amateur forecasters (some paid) who bring different skills sets amongst each of them....then we have another set weather fans who round out a full board where were are, in some ways, friends each winter and for some all year.  For the most parts the egos stay out of the way here and I hope that continues. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Parts of West Texas had 6” or so of snow today. They had an October storm too and more than double Harrisburg’s seasonal total. 

I give up. 

Don’t give up yet. Please see my post from earlier this evening. One of these storms will deliver for us. The last 3 years in March MDT has recorded double digit snow totals. We also have 3 weeks of February left to try to score snow.

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Have had some light rain/drizzle this eve with temps hovering around 32-33ºF. Most everything is wet but the car, the steps to the door, and the deck are a solid glaze.

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2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Storm looks ridiculously strong at least.

For sure, everything's taking a low-mid 970s low through southeastern PA enroute to heading down into the 960s going through New England. Unfortunately, it still looks like the storm track is too far inside for the  Lower Sus Valley to get an appreciable changeover. This could be interesting for west-central PA (Laurel's region) up into northern PA with the Pittsburgh region also perhaps seeing up to a few inches of snow and the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor seeing that potential as well depending on the timing of of the changeover and track of the low. I wouldn't be surprised if a stripe of warning totals ends up running up the Laurel's where elevation (temps) will aid snow ratios some. 

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15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

For sure, everything's taking a low-mid 970s low through southeastern PA enroute to heading down into the 960s going through New England. Unfortunately, it still looks like the storm track is too far inside for the  Lower Sus Valley to get an appreciable changeover. This could be interesting for west-central PA (Laurel's region) up into northern PA with the Pittsburgh region also perhaps seeing up to a few inches of snow and the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor seeing that potential as well depending on the timing of of the changeover and track of the low. I wouldn't be surprised if a stripe of warning totals ends up running up the Laurel's where elevation (temps) will aid snow ratios some. 

Been watching this one for a while and think the bolded part has a good shot at verifying.  Gut says you can add Tioga to Bradford counties as they may be big winners in northwoods, as deform bands have best shot at cranking there. Also think this has heartbreak written on if for those just east of the r/s line.  

I'll let you know what we got when i get home (or will post pics if i can).

 

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Honest question what difference does it make that the low gets so much stronger than most? Looking at precip totals and winds and while somewhat impressive it’s not like really high in a crazy way for either...so what significance do stronger lows bring as opposed to like 995 to 1000ish?

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Looks like NWS Pittsburgh's whole region under an advisory as well as the north central in CTP's. Pretty surprised they don't have the Laurel's counties (Cambria and Somerset) included.

Quote
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Rain is overspreading the area again from W/SW to E/NE and
colder air is not far away. Still some low to mid 30s reading
across the northern tier. Blend of hi-res output gives
changeover to freezing rain as boundary layer cools first across
the NW this evening, and this spreads east and south to cover a
large area mainly north of I-80 through the pre dawn hours. Cold
air becomes established enough over the NW by that time to
changeover to snow, and expect a few to several inches to
accumulate across the northern half of central PA as well as the
Laurel Highlands. Timing is problematic as the Friday morning
commute will be negatively impacted with one inch per hour rates
as the changeover marches eastward from dawn through mid
morning. The lower levels are initially mild and that will cut
down on accums for areas of the Central Mountains, but farther
north and east, it appears several inches are likely. 50th
percentile amounts of 4-6" are supported north of I-80 with
locally 7"+ (75th percentile) not a far stretch for Tioga/N
Lycoming and Sullivan Counties. Advisories issued for slightly
less than the northern half of central PA for combo of glaze of
freezing rain and a few to several inches of snow, while sub
advisory snow amounts no icing expected central and south
central areas, and plain rain for the most part over the far
Lower Susq.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like NWS Pittsburgh's whole region under an advisory as well as the north central in CTP's. Pretty surprised they don't have the Laurel's counties (Cambria and Somerset) included.

 

 

Yeah don’t seem too impressed for AOO to IPT stretch...may be fun for nut up in Tioga.

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah don’t seem too impressed for AOO to IPT stretch...may be fun for nut up in Tioga.

The AOO-IPT region is going to come down to how quickly we can get things cold enough to changeover and start accumulating.. as surface temps may be slow to cool to a point that allows more efficient accumulations in the lower elevations. We're also pretty close to the surface low as well. Everyone in this portion of the region should see the changeover but it may be an elevational situation with accumulations.. which seems to be where the hi-res guidance is heading. It probably will be a case of T-2" in the valleys of the ridge and valley region, and potentially some advisory amounts in the higher ridges (especially the western ridges closer to the Laurels/Alleghenies). If that low tracks a tad to the east and/or we get a heavy area of precip that provides a rapid changeover and significant rates, the elevational aspect could be remedied to a degree. 

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z NAM, especially @Bubbler86 !

Maybe a few of will luck into some snow for a few hours tomorrow?

6AB4D10E-F21A-4FAA-A19D-CBBB96F4EBC5.png

I posted the 12Z Nam showing snow back here but did not see anything else showing it so not so sure I buy the Nam's post front snows at this point.  

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