Central PA - February 2020

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, 2001kx said:

Looks like we picked up another inch or two overnight.

Must have been under one of those bands for a bit.

Where is the credit card slot?

[Atomixwx]

10 hours ago, canderson said:

Ah 9”. 

The pattern just doesn’t want to change for the east coast.  It is what it is. Ignoring snow itself it’s not been cold this year at all. My heating costs are almost 40% lower than last year. 

Bugs will be brutal this summer.  

I maintain it's Fukushima related. That nuke juice went into the Pacific and we're paying for it

[Atomixwx]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Where is the credit card slot?

In Altoona where civilization exists. That's Clearfield. There's nothing there. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@MAG5035

What are your thoughts on the winter storm chance that we might have around Thursday?

[Blizzard of 93]

Meanwhile this morning, it is snowing now in suburban Atlanta with Winter Storm Warnings for 2-4 inches of snow.

This gives me hope that we too will have our chances for snow. If they can luck into some snow down there in a bad pattern, then I think we should stand a better chance up here.

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Meanwhile this morning, it is snowing now in suburban Atlanta with Winter Storm Warnings for 2-4 inches of snow.

This gives me hope that we too will have our chances for snow. If they can luck into some snow down there in a bad pattern, then I think we should stand a better chance up here.

I just read a Nam extrapolation out past 100 hours over on the MA so people are trying to find hope.  I like to see the NAM get some respect but not sure I would defend it past 84 hours though.  LOL.  That used to be called something...the DGEX or EXETA or something like that.

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Meanwhile this morning, it is snowing now in suburban Atlanta with Winter Storm Warnings for 2-4 inches of snow.

This gives me hope that we too will have our chances for snow. If they can luck into some snow down there in a bad pattern, then I think we should stand a better chance up here.

ICON hardly wait,

 

 

[pawatch]

Cool sunny morning...snow sticking around overnight.

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

ICON hardly wait,

 

 

Nice, I see what you did there!

[canderson]

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

ICON hardly wait,

 

 

A couple wiseguys up in Euro.

[Blizzard of 93]

The GFS agreed with the ICON & gave a nice snow even to CTP on Thursday.

2 for 2 so far at 12z, let’s see what the Canadian & Euro have to say a little later.

[Itstrainingtime]

Respectfully...I don't like any of those maps Blizz...never want to be on the southern fringe when the trend all winter long has been for storms to trend north. 

I remain optimistic that we score before season's end but I'm not sure this will be the one. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Respectfully...I don't like any of those maps Blizz...never want to be on the southern fringe when the trend all winter long has been for storms to trend north. 

I see your point, but there is more cold air available this time & a fresh High pressing in that could make the difference north of the Mason- Dixon line.

I understand proceeding with caution with what we have gone through this season so far. I think that we are due to end up on the right side for a change.

Heck, this place might be kind of empty even if we get snow when considering how many people have canceled winter already & have given up hope.

#jimmyVdontgiveup

[Blizzard of 93]

The Canadian makes us 3 for 3 today at 12z with our Thursday snow chance.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I see your point, but there is more cold air available this time & a fresh High pressing in that could make the difference north of the Mason- Dixon line.

I understand proceeding with caution with what we have gone through this season so far. I think that we are due to end up on the right side for a change.

Heck, this place might be kind of empty even if we get snow when considering how many people have canceled winter already & have given up hope.

#jimmyVdontgiveup

Agree with you for sure on keeping hope alive. I'll be tracking through March.  

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agree with you for sure on keeping hope alive. I'll be tracking through March.  

We have been saved a few times even well into March the few years. There is still lots of time.

Let’s do this !

[Blizzard of 93]

Unfortunately, the Euro is not on board. The southern stream lifts north out ahead of the northern stream, allowing the low to cut to Lake Erie.

This is still far from decided.

[Superstorm]

To be honest, has not been much to track because the overall pattern has been so crappy, anything that might look good 7 days out has only been a crap shoot.


.

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What are your thoughts on the winter storm chance that we might have around Thursday?

It appears we have a system to watch. The GFS/CMC/Euro paint a pretty good picture of the multiple ways this thing could go. GFS couples a decent high to the north with a low sliding to the south of PA for a change and a good majority of the subforum sees a decent snow event. The CMC has similar timing/track but a stronger surface high and a lighter event for mainly the southern tier while the euro hangs back the high pressure and the storm cuts. Significant difference maker on the Euro appears to be lack of 500mb low east of Hudson Bay. This feature was present on the GFS/Canadian and it provided a confluent flow to the north aiding the storm tracking underneath us. Without that on the Euro the shortwave just boots out NE into the midwest and the developing storm easily cuts.  

[2001kx]

4 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

In Altoona where civilization exists. That's Clearfield. There's nothing there. 

 

 

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Unfortunately, the Euro is not on board. The southern stream lifts north out ahead of the northern stream, allowing the low to cut to Lake Erie.

This is still far from decided.

They have been cutting that way most of the winter. Let's watch this play out...

[Voyager]

Guys, I'm probably going to be starting a new job on Wed/Thur. Whenever I do that in the winter months, it usually snows.

[canderson]

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Guys, I'm probably going to be starting a new job on Wed/Thur. Whenever I do that in the winter months, it usually snows.

Local trucking I assume?

[Bubbler86]

18Z NAM would be disappointing in the next few panels after 84.  On the flip side that WAA snow keeps creeping further and further south in PA Sunday night. 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z NAM would be disappointing in the next few panels after 84.  On the flip side that WAA snow keeps creeping further and further south in PA Sunday night. 

Extrapolating the 84 hour NAM is like...fill in your joke here....

Heck, some of us probably just got done shoveling the 2-4 inches of snow that it showed for much of the LSV for Friday that showed on the NAM on Thursday night, 12 hours before the storm !!!

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z NAM would be disappointing in the next few panels after 84.  On the flip side that WAA snow keeps creeping further and further south in PA Sunday night. 

Meh, not necessarily. Extrapolating the NAM beyond 84hr is a dangerous game to play, leave that to whoever did that in the other subforum this morning lol. I'll start watching what it does when something gets within it's range with regards to where it's at within the model suite. Within about 48hrs is when I'll start taking it more seriously as it typically is better on the finer details (on the mesoscale) with the thermal column and stuff like that. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Extrapolating the 84 hour NAM is like...fill in your joke here....

Heck, some of us probably just got done shoveling the 2-4 inches of snow that it showed for much of the LSV for Friday that showed on the NAM on Thursday night, 12 hours before the storm !!!

It was a play on my previous post from this AM where someone in the MA forum said the 100+ hour Nam looked good. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, MAG5035 said:

Meh, not necessarily. Extrapolating the NAM beyond 84hr is a dangerous game to play. I'll start watching what it does when something gets within it's range with regards to where it's at within the model suite. Within about 48hrs is when I'll start taking it more seriously as it typically is better on the finer details (on the mesoscale) with the thermal column and stuff like that. 

The problem I see is the temps in addition with the forming slip already being a bit high in latitude.  But as I said in my other post I was more making fun of my post form earlier today. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Ok, you made me look at the 84 hour NAM...

I’m not so sure that it would cut to the lakes. There is a lot of traffic in southern & eastern Canada that could create confluence to push the storm to the east instead of north. Also that Arctic High in southern Canada is starting to push south as well.

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, you made me look at the 84 hour NAM...

I’m not so sure that it would cut to the lakes. There is a lot of traffic in southern & eastern Canada that could create confluence to push the storm to the east instead of north. Also that Arctic High in southern Canada is starting to push south as well.

 

Unfortunately with the lack of cold air we would need it to come way under us using the temp maps I am seeing and I would not think it would.   The 12Z Icon had cold air pressing in from the North East but not sure I would see the Nam doing that.  The High on the 12Z Icon is now apparently gone on the 18Z Icon.   Frustrating.