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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The only folks who should be bitching (well deserved) is those poor bastards near Buf and IAG. They could get a little skunked. North towns probably get a few. 

I would bet you a garbage plate that northern Erie does better than advertised. I'll state 7" is the total for both events...you in?

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Just now, cleetussnow said:

I have a camp up in Old Forge in Lewis county.  Its not really a major LE area.  need synoptics.  

Old Forge gets a ton of snow, no? I’m looking to buy in the ADK. Right now I’m looking at Brantingham Lake. It’s the furthest SW and still be in the park. Piseco is also nice. I need water. 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Old Forge gets a ton of snow, no? I’m looking to buy in the ADK. Right now I’m looking at Brantingham Lake. It’s the furthest SW and still be in the park. Piseco is also nice. I need water. 

It does, but it's not like the Tug.  I imagine 150 to 170 inches is around the normal winter. They've had some 450 inch winters in the old days, and a couple 300 inchers in this century.  nowhere close to normal this year.  The LE snow is probably half of the normal total, but that is a hard thing to know.  I've been to Piseco area in the winter.  Brantingham is probably snowier than OF since it is closer to the lake effect zone.  We head that way from OF on sleds.  I believe Brantingham is at a lower elevation than OF so snow doesn't hang on as long. I'd go for Brant if you wanted to get in on LE snows.  Piseco may have orographics going for it same as Old Forge with some upslope, and elevation might help retaining the pack.

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17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m gonna get you CNY folks excited if I have to carry you on my back into a blizzard. Lol. It’s a good storm guys!!

I agree it looks promising.  I'm just leery of the modeling disparities and let's face it, this winter has found a way to snatch defeat from the jowels of victory with regularity... 

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4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I agree it looks promising.  I'm just leery of the modeling disparities and let's face it, this winter has found a way to snatch defeat from the jowels of victory with regularity... 

It’s pretty crazy. I was flipping between the NAM hi Rez and RGEM at 48 and they look so different. NAM is forward leaning and RGEM is going negative big time. It’s a complicated set up. Reminds me a bit of one we had in 98. LP road a stalled front from WVA to Binghamton. Gave Roc area about 15 in 6 hours. Intense. Someone gets in that band if this thing gets cranking. 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s pretty crazy. I was flipping between the NAM hi Rez and RGEM at 48 and they look so different. NAM is forward leaning and RGEM is going negative big time. It’s a complicated set up. Reminds me a bit of one we had in 98. LP road a stalled front from WVA to Binghamton. Gave Roc area about 15 in 6 hours. Intense. Someone gets in that band if this thing gets cranking. 

When do you leave for the Dacks? This week? 

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I lived in southern Herkimer county for 6 years and it always seemed like c/n Herkimer were getting smoked with LES lol

West-wsw winds needed with elevation, winds are usually the strongest out of the west..

Where did you live in Herkimer County?  I was born, grew up and spent my first 40 years in Little Falls.

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Where did you live in Herkimer County?  I was born, grew up and spent my first 40 years in Little Falls.

I lived in east Herkimer on rt 5.. Probably 4 miles west of little falls.. Pretty much right across the street from the old "donnas diner" lol

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10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I lived in southern Herkimer county for 6 years and it always seemed like c/n Herkimer were getting smoked with LES lol

West-wsw winds needed with elevation, winds are usually the strongest out of the west..

It can come in a hurry up there!  The lewis county forecast office is different from the Herkimer office.  Lots of times the snowfall forecasts differ right on that line.  Herkimer is a skinny county.

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I lived in east Herkimer on rt 5.. Probably 4 miles west of little falls.. Pretty much right across the street from the old "donnas diner" lol

I know the area well.  If I had a nickel for every time I drove past there I’d be a millionaire, lol.  My family is buried in the cemetery just down the road.

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