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Mid to Long Range Threats

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO

How so ? If it comes further west everyone will get in on the action.

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17 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's dead, Jim.

 

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Don't think so.

I honestly don't think so either.  I'm not saying we're getting a snow storm but this is far from over, re: our sensible weather.  

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2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

really? its tuesday night, this threat is for sunday:facepalm:

The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes.

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3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes.

The northern stream energy didnt even come into the mainland. We have seen changes within model runs a day out this winter and especially with Miller A storms.

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this "event" looks more likely now IMO BUT looks like a mix of precip types at best at the coast - more frozen the farther inland you go where there is precip available

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

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Nice improvement on the GFS. Surprised it moved NW this early. I'm looking forward to the NAM starting tomorrow night and obviously what the Euro keeps showing.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

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Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side. 

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1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said:

Euro is terrible 

Once this system is fully sampled models will change just my opinion...i think by thur 12z and oz suite we will have much more clarity...im not saying mega snow just saying more clarity...

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The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

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7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

How so ? If it comes further west everyone will get in on the action.

It's not as simple as saying, it comes west it snows. First off look back at nyc snowstorms, how many times did they not have any good HP to the north or cold air in place before a system? Heck NYC dew pts aren't even below freezing on saturday, so you can't even evapo cool down. Meaning you're solely relying on dynamics to bring cold air in. West doesn't mean you snow either. Track further west also means stronger easterly flow out ahead of system and stronger sw flow in the mid levels. Look aback at the 18z run of eps, you had 23 members show over .5 of qpf, yet only 7 member show anything over 2". Thats gotta tell you something right there odds are heavily not in your favor not even with a further west track. 

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

Glad you are aware the storm is going to miss. 1st step in recovery. Mt Holly morning afd mentions possibly grazing coastal nj...but a fish storm.

 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

About time you gave up. The writing was on the wall a day ago.

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41 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

About time you gave up. The writing was on the wall a day ago.

This doesnt mean I will stop tracking it. 

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