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Mid to Long Range Threats

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. 

Gefs is quite active moving forward 

Gfs loves your storm

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. 

Thanks. Gradient can work great for our area.

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Why can’t u guys think positive and say my gut is telling me this is just right a phaser with a benchmark track 980 low

Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much....

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17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much....

Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright... 

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Just now, White Gorilla said:

Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright... 

Indeed. But I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anyone. But this year I'm not missing it. Maybe I've seen too many.

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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Good news

but since the trend is your friend we don’t want it to start crashing west now. Too soon lol. 

If your concern is that we end up with a cutter, you shouldn't worry. Trough is not sharp enough for such a solution unless we see marked changes at the upper levels in the next couple of days. If this thing phases at the optimum time I would expect a BM track or just inside.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much snow have you guys had down there in your area?

We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt.

I'm only at 3.3 here in Brooklyn , NY.

 

Awful winter so far

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps

 

Courtesy of SNE thread

image.thumb.png.a2bde6bf32495b3d877180c5b9f4d939.png

83430911_165126278102240_5497917090771763200_n.thumb.jpg.875865ab24b4ecc8eca1e8f7ab89400b.jpg

need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....

We need another 50-75 Miles jog west and if we get that with a 980 millibar storm this will be a blizzard! Some of the models are painting 980 and below so it’s possible

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

We need another 50-75 Miles jog west and if we get that with a 980 millibar storm this will be a blizzard! Some of the models are painting 980 and below so it’s possible

Yep slightly more west and this would be a good storm.

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20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much snow have you guys had down there in your area?

We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt.

18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV.

When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years.

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3 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I’ve always been curious about our chances without vs. with blocking/neg NAO. Considering how tough it is to get a good setup, is it really that comparatively tough to get significant snows without a ‘good’ setup? Especially considering how many factors are involved in a good setup. 

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.  

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV.

When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years.

I was in the Tug Hill last winter. The winters have sucked so bad, the economy is being greatly affected by it there. Partially lost my job as a result of it.

Now I'm in the North Syracuse burbs where I average 130 to 140 inches a year.

More than half of the 45 inches of snow I have received so far came in November. 20 some inches total over December and January, with many thaws has made it very ugly and frustrating for winter enthusiasts up here as well.

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2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area

 

Doesn’t need to be a cutter by any stretch to come too far west. 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.  

I’m which case I assume it’s our thread the needle scenario? 

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31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm only at 3.3 here in Brooklyn , NY.

 

Awful winter so far

 

35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much snow have you guys had down there in your area?

We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt.

6.3” northern bk. Ant you sure you’re at 3.3”?

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.  

Yup. Pretty sure the 2/14/06 storm or the 2017-18 storms happened during at least not a great NAO. It’s just a big mess with the number of vorts in the trough coming through so the models will have a rough time resolving everything for another few days. 

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52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much snow have you guys had down there in your area?

We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt.

11 at BDR

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18 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

6.3” northern bk. Ant you sure you’re at 3.3”?

The biggest weenie lives in the worst place for snow and here. That seems legit.

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