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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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Since many don't know how to use the banter thead and we don't keep clogging the main disco thread with weenie threats that pop up and disappear, discuss any upcoming threats in here.   

Feel free to be a super weenie in here.  Tony, metsfan, have at it.  Toss em. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Since many don't know how to use the banter thead and we don't keep clogging the main disco thread with weenie threats that pop up and disappear, discuss any upcoming threats in here.   

Feel free to be a super weenie in here.  Tony, metsfan, have at it.  Toss em. 

 

 


 

Looks like a solid threat for the N&W burbs next weekend. Wouldn’t take much to adjust that to the coast. 7 days is an eternity. 

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3 minutes ago, Njweathered said:


 

Looks like a solid threat for the N&W burbs next weekend. Wouldn’t take much to adjust that to the coast. 7 days is an eternity. 

Thanks Pat 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

 

Closest 850mb temps zero or colder are in southwest WV and near the ME/Quebec border. Torched.

Finally a good track but no cold air.  

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I use tt for fast track. Euro was close to something but kicked out East real quick.

Nah, it wasn't. Also a torch. Snow limited to the central Appalachians. 

While there is some potential next weekend, it's a thread the needle in a marginal airmass/pattern situation, so good luck.

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14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Nah, it wasn't. Also a torch. Snow limited to the central Appalachians. 

While there is some potential next weekend, it's a thread the needle in a marginal airmass/pattern situation, so good luck.

Time to close the shades for 2 weeks and hope a better pattern materializes. By then it’s 2/5 and getting late quick 

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29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Time to close the shades for 2 weeks and hope a better pattern materializes. By then it’s 2/5 and getting late quick 

Next week was the potential some people highlighted with the Hudson bay block. They were correct in that regard.

Of course none of that matters if the airmass isn't favorable. EPS looks a bit better though.

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25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Time to close the shades for 2 weeks and hope a better pattern materializes. By then it’s 2/5 and getting late quick 

Not tracking next weekend ? It's really close on the euro and eps.

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43 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I use tt for fast track. Euro was close to something but kicked out East real quick.

Eps is much better 

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This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Looks like a spring elevation event 

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Exactly 

 

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No further post from myself yet...  would like to see GEFS snow plumes a touch higher for LGA before getting NYC group amped a  bit. Lack of cold air in advance is a big concern so that this is a marginal thermal situation. Seems like EPS and GEFS stayed the same or trended down slightly (model noise and insignificant?) on snowfall but this is still a consistent signal for the I84 corridor itself to continue monitoring. Just  having doubts south of I80 in NJ.  There will be much much better scenarios in future winters, maybe later this winter, but will take what we can eek out from this winter.   Will not post again til tomorrow morning 7AM. Later, Walt

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41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No further post from myself yet...  would like to see GEFS snow plumes a touch higher for LGA before getting NYC group amped a  bit. Lack of cold air in advance is a big concern so that this is a marginal thermal situation. Seems like EPS and GEFS stayed the same or trended down slightly (model noise and insignificant?) on snowfall but this is still a consistent signal for the I84 corridor itself to continue monitoring. Just  having doubts south of I80 in NJ.  There will be much much better scenarios in future winters, maybe later this winter, but will take what we can eek out from this winter.   Will not post again til tomorrow morning 7AM. Later, Walt

I have seen your name with the NWS somewhere... 

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6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

No cold air ?

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t925-00832001.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t850-00832001.png

Clearly marginal and a dynamics dependent storm, it depends on the dynamics, if it blows up and hits the area then it could snow, the setup isn't great but it's possible.  

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NWS Albany talking about this as a system to watch. Temps are marginal at best especially for coast but to early to say it's not possible. Latest GFS similar CMC with decent snows north of city. I will definitely be watching this. 

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

NWS Albany talking about this as a system to definitely watch. Temps are marginal at best especially for coast but to early to say it's not possible. 

storm goes to around Chicago then is forced to redevelop south of us

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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The flow keeps screaming. Until this flow slows, everything is thread the needle. The cold is transient and fleeting as the storms come in. Something needs to anchor in this cold and/or slow down the storms, otherwise the coast (most of our subforum) is really going to struggle.
That withstanding, the Atlantic near Greenland is showing signs of change. What exactly this change is remains to be seen.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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still a chance that all the confluence up in eastern Canada will help develop stronger high pressure at the surface and model runs are trending south with LP both at 850 and the surface so this is still a work in progress for the weekend - dynamics - track and the development of HP to the north will determine rain versus snow in the metro area - chance it could start as rain and then transition to snow IMO

sfcmslp.conus.png

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