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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me,

Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth.

     I don't really understand why the line was so meh.    The 00z IAD sounding isn't bad.     Maybe the CAPE is a bit tall and skinny, and deep layer shear is marginal, but I would have expected an organized line like that to have a lot more wind.

 

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me,

Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far

Again with the no sprinkler ;)

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Tomorrow will make up for tonight's underperformer. Some lightning strikes so far but the heaviest is south.

Getting in on the edge of that severe area here now. Booming house rattling thunder.

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37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Those are some nasty soundings on the 00z NAM from 18z THURS to 03z FRI 

Those were at KIAD... KDCA and KEZF look a bit more nasty... along with KBWI too 

ETA: especially that sounding at KBWI at 00z Friday 

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Looks like its over here, No wind, which is fine with me. Impressive deluge and back end electrical storm with the following cell.

1.45"

Y'all can have tomorrow. 

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Evening AFD LWX disco update for tomorrow

Dry weather should start our day on Thursday with temperatures
in the 70s. Another threat for severe thunderstorms, higher in
the risk category to Enhanced Risk, will unfold around midday
and linger through the afternoon. Thursday`s severe activity may
be more so between 3pm and 6pm, rather than 6pm to 9pm like this
evening`s activity. Activity should be more earlier in the day.
The front to our north will be a trough that will meander to the
east during the day Thursday before a cold front approaches
Thursday night. CAPE values will increase above 2000 as
temperatures and moisture increase during the day. Wind shear
will also be present and could be more significant than this
evening`s activity. As a matter of fact, the threat for
tornadoes becomes more pronounced Thursday. Thursday could be a
very dangerous environment. We will to need monitor the
changing weather situation to determine the timing, coverage and
risk for severe weather Thursday.

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You don't see them often in these parts, but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see hatched tornado probs added by SPC tomorrow.  00z NAM soundings are wicked across northern VA and MD.

Baltimore area:
118808252_10158183731376329_9058172233563890808_o.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=7DkWB6MdKgUAX_BPocL&_nc_ht=scontent.fric1-1.fna&oh=22573b8b5607b481c3595a9e9c56e6ec&oe=5F75A182

 

Northern VA:
118767750_10158183731516329_5832262043461222348_o.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=a-p1L_NVLFAAX8YxGc_&_nc_ht=scontent.fric1-1.fna&oh=80a79d9cc17d9d5b9c8c27a58efa0c0d&oe=5F7790CF

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Many things to like about Thursday afternoon, but I'd sure like to see some stronger 10m wind speeds.     There will be mesos for sure, but we need some better speeds at the sfc to really get a legit TOR event.      

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6 minutes ago, thunderman said:

 

 I believe June 2008 may be the next one before that?  That event was a bust.

June 4th and June 10th and June 16th 2008 were MOD risks... but for wind down here

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

June 4th and June 10th and June 16th 2008 were MOD risks... but for wind down here

June 1 2012 was a Moderate Risk day in DC/Baltimore area for Tornadoes and SPC added hatched for TOR at 20z a busted forecast. Storms coming across WVA right now look early.

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6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore.

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was texting Ava a bit this morning -- she thinks Baltimore south has better chances than north due to morning rain/clouds. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

#humblebrag

she calls me sometimes too! :bike:

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  • Weenie 1

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Scattered high clouds here but more blue the clouds. Steamy 

steamy for sure. windows all fogged up with condensation 

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