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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Pretty cloudy out at the moment.

This is your "classic" DC severe day.  Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear.  We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event.

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is your "classic" DC severe day.  Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear.  We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event.

With dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s - I'm not at all enthused for anything more than a breezy shower or two and a rumble of thunder. 

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is your "classic" DC severe day.  Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear.  We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event.

    cape was going to be limited no matter what, but yeah, we need every degree we can get today.    At least warm advection is at least somewhat offsetting the lack of sun

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

With dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s - I'm not at all enthused for anything more than a breezy shower or two and a rumble of thunder. 

       I'm slightly more bullish about this than you due to the impressive dynamics, but the better solutions say that we're roughly 64/48 just ahead of the storms.     If we don't get there, it will definitely be lame.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I'm slightly more bullish about this than you due to the impressive dynamics, but the better solutions say that we're roughly 64/48 just ahead of the storms.     If we don't get there, it will definitely be lame.

Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown all have dews in the 30s this morning. But they are also pretty far west. Let's see what the next few hours hold. 

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Hail being reported with the line NW of Morgantown, WV and it's 53/42 there.  If we can manage like 65/45 today we're probably good.

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown all have dews in the 30s this morning. But they are also pretty far west. Let's see what the next few hours hold. 

        Yeah, that area is going to have trouble with dew points due to downsloping.    Upper 40s here.     T/Td will be fun to monitor over the next 3 hours.

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Just like that a decent wedge of clearing appears on visible.  Damn.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

That would be so cool to see here. Not getting my hopes up - but let's do it!

It's entirely possible to get a dump of small hail stones from sub-severe storms today.  There are several mPING report in the 0.25" - 0.5" range in areas with limited population so you know the storms are producing if you're getting reports from the void.

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trying to clear up in Parkton. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hail being reported with the line NW of Morgantown, WV and it's 53/42 there.  If we can manage like 65/45 today we're probably good.

 

1 hour ago, high risk said:

        Yeah, that area is going to have trouble with dew points due to downsloping.    Upper 40s here.     T/Td will be fun to monitor over the next 3 hours.

 

I'm up to 66.1, but the dews are stuck in the upper 40s.  IAD is ~65/43.

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very reasonable MD issued.    a respectable 65/45 at BWI.   heating is good - just need to maintain low to mid 40s dew points.    It has mixed out to 41 at IAD, but the models have consistently shown a less favorable environment on the west side of DC.

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gusty showers right now

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Just now, wxtrix said:

the winds are howling right now and all of a sudden.

I do believe winds were supposed to pick up following the front, but not sure its passed you yet?

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Just now, mappy said:

I do believe winds were supposed to pick up following the front, but not sure its passed you yet?

there’s a little rain to my west, but the heavy band is about 10 miles directly north of me. 

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1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

there’s a little rain to my west, but the heavy band is about 10 miles directly north of me. 

A pretty decent gust-front just went through Charles Town looking at the radar. 

What would you guesstimate the strength of the gusts to be?

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3 minutes ago, George BM said:

A pretty decent gust-front just went through Charles Town looking at the radar. 

What would you guesstimate the strength of the gusts to be?

Martinsburg airport had a gust to 39 which seems right.

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