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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year.  :sled:

I mean why else would he post this, right .  Who cares about the NAM  state right now.  

 

 

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Plate tectonics will have shifted the apps to that spot. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities

UOj5QKy.png

 

This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. 

I don’t think Ji is the only one. Tensions are getting high around here. 

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ICON slows down/amplifies wave 1 on Monday/Monday night more. Interested to see the effects if any this will have down the line.

eta: GFS also slower with first wave monday/tuesday.

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GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over.   Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south.  That wave wasn't there/that strong last run.   Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive

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GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over.   Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south.  That wave wasn't there/that strong last run.   Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive
Which player is that 219f9fb414158733c410b7910fd692e4.jpg

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Well, we have two separate systems next week. One monday/monday night and one wednesday night/thursday. Still time for both of these imo.  After that it's all completely up in the air. 

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Cmc has  the Wednesdsy/Thursday system a bit stronger. Still slides it south of us but you can see how it could deliver for us .

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over.   Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south.  That wave wasn't there/that strong last run.   Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive

Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG.

 

Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pretty wild stuff euro smokin4a8289308f576b7153e8bc9bbef8b4f5.jpg

Does that give us anything frozen? It looks pretty there but I assume it’s rain. Edit: I saw the precip panels.  975 south of us.  Whatever it’s smoking it must be the good stuff. Not worth parsing the particulars at the surface but at first glance looks like an Apps pasting. 

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Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG.
 
Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol.
 
Except you forgot about one factor that screws everything up and we get rained on. Dan Snyder is still at the helm and it's a nonWinterbowl.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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12 hours ago, frd said:

 

I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year.  :sled:

I mean why else would he post this, right .  Who cares about the NAM  state right now.  

 

 

You forgot this part lol

Screenshot_20200124-072901_Twitter.jpg

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GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

Agreed....that is why I keep saying that we need a little luck.  But also remember close only counts when playing horseshoes.

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GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.
The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland

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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

It’s not no hope. But people should realize the most likely outcome is a suppressed wave next week while we have the 50/50 because the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast. Then once the 50/50 vacates the most likely result is rain. This setup is better but still flawed.  But there is enough space something could amplify enough next week just not likely.  After that to make the early Feb storm work, because there is ridging ahead of it and nothing to hold cold in, we need the upper low to dive in through say TN/KY and cut off over VA not down south. The cut off south of us slows the system and blasts warm air up the east coast ahead of it. We’re back to needing the perfect upper low track with that. However this time some guidance is way further south with that and they almost always correct north so it’s not as hopeless as the last setup.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland

Too weak. The cold is gone by then. If it’s not the first wave next week after that it probably has to be a perfect track bomb with a perfect track upper low to work. Unlikely but that’s just how it is. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland

With a +AO and a ++EPO, its difficult if not impossible to get any deep cold down this far. There is a reason we are seeing meager snowfall probs on the means, and op run after op run with "good track" coastal rainers. Marginal cold might do it with a strong  enough low,  a perfect track, and some luck for inland areas, but a frozen outcome will be very difficult for the lowlands. The stubborn AK vortex seems to weaken some on the means in the LR, and there are signs of the NAO going at least neutral towards day 15. Probably still 10 days away from a potentially more favorable pattern- one that can transport legit cold into our region.

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Superbowl weekend GEFS is a bit slower but also a little farther off the coast, farther S with the ULL, and colder than the GFS op implies. Probably doesnt mean a whole lot 200 hours out and we know the preceding storm(s) or lack thereof will affect this one. But for purposes of my morning coffee I am glancing ahead if for no other reason than kicks and giggles.

Still maintaining my thoughts on an evolution to a better (brief?) Atl side with winter storm potential between the 6th and the 13th give or take a day either side. NAO ridging continues showing up on many of the ens with a positive PNA, active stj undercutting the PNA, and just enough cold air around. I think what allows the NAO to build if only for a brief period is the relax of the Hudson Bay PV over into AK allowing for the weaker remaining lobe of the PV to be pushed around. Sucks we cant seem to get both sides (Pac/Atl) to coincide a bit better but it is what it is. As we get later into the season I expect more HL blockiness to develop near the NAO as the weakening PV will be allowed to get displaced with more ease. If we can get the EPO to pop in tandem that is a look I would embrace. Last pic is the GEFS ens mean showing the NAO ridge which the EPS was implying as well during this period.

GFS op:

gfs_z500_mslp_us_34.png

GEFS:

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_35.png

GEFS mean east basedNAO/N Atl ridge:

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.png

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Too weak. The cold is gone by then. If it’s not the first wave next week after that it probably has to be a perfect track bomb with a perfect track upper low to work. Unlikely but that’s just how it is. 

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

Arent they all the best setups 7+ days out? Probably why the period I'm looking at will end up a heap of gasoline soaked newspapers in a dumpster with @WxWatcher007 standing next to it with a lit match.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

It was perfect if there was cold and confluence in front. A 1993 type storm won’t work because there is no arctic air here. 1993 had a direct discharge of cross polar flow.  If the upper low closes off too soon and the low bombs while it’s still to our west (even if way south of us) the southerly flow up the east coast will wreck any chance of frozen. We would need the upper energy to phase and cut off near western NC not Mississippi and we need the surface low to start to bomb in NC not the gulf coast. It has to be exactly perfect. 

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