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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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59 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Not much to sugar coat this morning...this is pretty depressing for mid-winter.

 

A329CB5C-19F1-47C9-9631-A1EA443D82E3.png

That is impressively futile.  If there isn't any chance of snow I'm rooting for way AN temps so we can at least enjoy the outdoors. 

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58 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Not much to sugar coat this morning...this is pretty depressing for mid-winter.

 

A329CB5C-19F1-47C9-9631-A1EA443D82E3.png

I’d laugh twice at this if I could. Of course nobody will acknowledge how wrong the same model snow output chart was /will be from just two days ago.

Totally useless product.

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49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

strong wave in the MC will have done the dirty work ushering in an awful pattern.

+ IOD link still ?  Webb in one post said it was over and then in another post a week later says we are still feeling the effects.  

I think it is a general distribution of ocean SSTs mostly in the Pac.   You mentioned them all weeks ago, no need to re-hash.  

The bottom line though beyond all drivers and influences on the pattern for us is the general warmth and increasing temps and difficulty to achieve any sustained winter weather in the East for any length of time.  You can take that to even a national scope too. I am beginning to grow accustomed of very little snow.  The more I read and see on a global scale weather-wise the more I think our snow climo is changing. All of that does not mean it will never snow and never get extremely cold again, ( 17 degrees here this morning )  but I am more so referring to sustained cold and a real 4 to 6 week winter pattern setting in.      

 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

DCA chances of above mean snowfall is only about 30% any year.  So it’s not shocking that tossing 2/3 of winter doesn’t help the odds.

It’s very rare for DC to beat avg without it being one of the rare anomaly  winters like 1996/2003/2010/2014.  Typically DCA either finishes way above avg or below.  What DC should be hunting for is to get to hear a median winter which is about 10” and happens much more often with a bad start in non great wintes. That’s a more realistic goal imo.  

 

Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?)

DCA almost never gets as much as BWI even though I think BWI is usually on the low side. DCA measurements are always super low, and I think their measurement for the 2016 blizzard was laughably low in comparison to surrounding areas.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?)

They did...I didn’t include every example. I would say 2015 and 2016 were the rare cases where DC beat avg without an otherwise epic winter. Although the pattern in 2016 was pretty awesome just didn’t live up to potential imo. 2015 was a true lucky result.  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d laugh twice at this if I could. Of course nobody will acknowledge how wrong the same model snow output chart was /will be from just two days ago.

Totally useless product.

It’s like the background state isn’t conductive for snow, right.  Even with the better runs, it seems we are walking a tightrope. With the vortex spinning over Alaska for the forseable future, any storms coming at us will need an incredible amount of luck to be white. Cold will be tough to hang around long enough.  This day ten map leaves a lot to be desired.

 

 

AFB85D2B-9C37-42A8-B2F4-8A2B516685F1.png

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?)

i don't think there's really any formula for winters here.  i've lived here most of my life and we're good for 2-3 advisory/warning level snows per season.  that's my guide for a decent winter.  what makes this winter lame so far is that we haven't had a single legit event yet (2-4"+), at least in the cities, and what's even more surprising is the lack of digital snow which tells me we really are in a subpar pattern.  however, the 6z gfs does have a bit more activity/fake snow, so maybe that's a sign the pattern is changing.  we'll find out in 2 months lol.

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EOqQ8h8W4AcDl1z.jpeg.7f39bb37f19e12cdf063247d8c8de1ec.jpeg

If we don't get a 12" snowfall this winter, this would be the first time in 25 years that we (that is BWI...I know DC hit a foot last year) would have gone more than 4 years without getting one of those. Not much you've been able to look to to predict snow around here...but since 1993, this has been the one thing you could rely on like clockwork. 3-4 years for 1 footers, 6-7 for 2 footers. Would be a shame for that trend to end...but let's just wait and see. All it would take is one fluke or short window scoring! I'm still ridin' with the trend! :lol:

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18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It’s like the background state isn’t conductive for snow, right.  Even with the better runs, it seems we are walking a tightrope. With the vortex spinning over Alaska for the forseable future, any storms coming at us will need an incredible amount of luck to be white. Cold will be tough to hang around long enough.  This day ten map leaves a lot to be desired.

 

 

AFB85D2B-9C37-42A8-B2F4-8A2B516685F1.png

The ridge moving across central Canada is going to move into the NAO. If you loop the past 7 weeks this feature has progressed from the W Pac to the central pac briefly into the EPO region, then here in this map. The next stop for this feature is NAO region after Feb 6/7ish. Ens means are hinting at this. That ridging feature has had some holding power for whatever reason. If we get it to progress into the NAO in Feb and it has holding power for more that a couple days we may salvage part of the winter with a back loaded type. Weeklies hint at this not as strong as the ens means. I'm fairly optimistic regarding the signals.

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

EOqQ8h8W4AcDl1z.jpeg.7f39bb37f19e12cdf063247d8c8de1ec.jpeg

If we don't get a 12" snowfall this winter, this would be the first time in 25 years that we (that is BWI...I know DC hit a foot last year) would have gone more than 4 years without getting one of those. Not much you've been able to look to to predict snow around here...but since 1993, this has been the one thing you could rely on like clockwork. 3-4 years for 1 footers, 6-7 for 2 footers. Would be a shame for that trend to end...but let's just wait and see. All it would take is one fluke or short window scoring! I'm still ridin' with the trend! :lol:

The silver lining is that it seems we are due, so later in February or next year you would think we have to get something big. And those are also BWI totals, so many of us would have higher totals than that.

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Coldest morning of the winter IMBY -- and really not all-that cold.

So weekend system looks like it has trended more from a SW-to-NE Midwest track .... to a NE-to-ENE system tracking thru TN Valley > OH Valley ....  with redevelopment off the MA/NE coast and with cold HP retreating off to the east from New England. Maybe some snowfall for the MD/WV highest elevations this weekend, but it would take a Hail Mary to get snow at the lower elevations with lowest temps currently progged for mid 30s adjacent to the ridges and points east.

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55 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It’s like the background state isn’t conductive for snow, right.  Even with the better runs, it seems we are walking a tightrope. With the vortex spinning over Alaska for the forseable future, any storms coming at us will need an incredible amount of luck to be white. Cold will be tough to hang around long enough.  This day ten map leaves a lot to be desired.

 

 

AFB85D2B-9C37-42A8-B2F4-8A2B516685F1.png

This is the biggest problem. All of the cold air is trapped on the wrong side of the NH. I would think the next real threat will be when the pattern relaxes and allows some of that cold air to drop into the conus. We dont need frigid air to snow in Jan/Feb, especially out this way, But we do need the upper levels to be cold at least.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. 

NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least. 

Not sure how you can post this with a straight face.. Better off looking for a crap pattern in the crystal ball as our best chance for anything.

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21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is the biggest problem. All of the cold air is trapped on the wrong side of the NH. I would think the next real threat will be when the pattern relaxes and allows some of that cold air to drop into the conus. We dont need frigid air to snow in Jan/Feb, especially out this way, But we do need the upper levels to be cold at least.

We cannot overcome an AK vortex if the NAO is raging positive.  We can and have snowed with an AK vortext...especially as we get later in winter...if the NAO is negative to block the pacific onslaught.  But with both features the pac obliterates any mid level cold across north america.  

Likewise we can overcome a +NAO with an epo ridge.  But if we continue to see an AK vortex AND a +NAO we are screwed.  Yes I said SCREWED so here comes a post from you know who complaining about "how dare I declare winter over".  

Joking aside, maybe one or both of those features change from here on out, I would have more hope in the AK vortext than the NAO, but we are losing valuable prime climo everyday and odds of ending up with anything other than a bad winter are decreasing, not that I am surprised by that fact.  But there is always "hope", there have been very rare cases where the pattern went through a complete reversal late...had the flip in 2018 happened maybe 2 weeks earlier we probably would remember that as one of the great turnaround years also.  But when its so hard to get snow here to begin with...spending a huge chunk of our prime snow window in a shutout total crap pattern really makes it difficult.  

ETA:  the only reason any of these threats the next 10 days are "close" is that Hudson Ridge.  Those can sometimes overcome the larger crappy base state.  It was actually the feature most at cause for our "bad pattern snowstorms".  But even with that...we would need to get lucky with an absolutely perfect track amplified h5 system...and even then I am not so sure if it would work in the cities.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But when its so hard to get snow here to begin with...spending a huge chunk of our prime snow window in a shutout total crap pattern really makes it difficult.  

Source regions and the NAM state in Feb and March may be the basic determiners of whether we get some record low snow totals for the winter of 19-20. 

 

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JB cant ever admit defeat...he is taking credit from some of cold now that the southeast is seeing

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What background state?

 

Since mid December...when our climo really starts...while we have had 3 disticntly different patterns...they all featured either an AK vortex or a ++++NAM.  That combo won't work.  Yes we have had different factors shifting around...but the issue is we got one of the worst combinations of a nina/nino that in concert are killing us.  

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I guess if you live from the western md mountains to Hagerstown to Harrisburg you still have something to root for with the GFS run but I think its probably all but over for the rest of us in terms of this weekend

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IOD Update 

Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The latest weekly value to 19 January was +0.12 °C.

The strong positive IOD event that peaked in October 2019 decayed in late December. This was later than usual for a typical IOD event, due to a later than normal arrival of the monsoon in the southern hemisphere. The 2019 positive IOD was the strongest such event since 1997 and contributed to the widespread warm and dry conditions experienced by Australia during the second half of 2019 and early 2020.

The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. When the monsoon trough shifts southwards into the southern hemisphere, it changes the broadscale wind patterns, meaning that the IOD pattern is unable to form.

Consistent with the return to neutral, the temperature gradient across the Indian Ocean has reduced significantly over the past two months. Sea surface temperatures are warmer than average across much of the east and west of the basin.

IOD SST plumes from Bureau model forecasts, updated daily IOD SST plume graphs from ACCESS-S forecasts, updated daily

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Not sure if the record +  IOD gets all the credit for the crap winter in Europe and here, but it certainly has been a huge driver. 

 

 

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Everyone  seems a bit aggravated by this winter and the nothing seems to work outcomes. 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Everyone  seems a bit aggravated by this winter and the nothing seems to work outcomes. 

 

 

 

 

 

If the heat transport from those waves is not directed towards the mid/high latitudes in the northern hemisphere its irrelevant.  I think it was bluewave who showed a great loop where it was obvious the majority of the energy was being muted from transporting poleward in the NH.  Way more was being directed into the SH actually.  

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the heat transport from those waves is not directed towards the mid/high latitudes in the northern hemisphere its irrelevant.  I think it was bluewave who showed a great loop where it was obvious the majority of the energy was being muted from transporting poleward in the NH.  Way more was being directed into the SH actually.  

 

Excellent point and goes right to the point about the response (  how much and where it goes ) you get. I have to wonder if there is a any connection, or role with the previous record SSWE in the SH. 

That was an extreme event and coupled for weeks on end. A pretty site on the charts. 

I think that deep  - SAM played a part as well in the record dry Australia pattern along with the + IOD.  How that effected the MJO and the West Pac I am not sure but I do believe there is a relationship as well.  Please study that this summer as well psu.  ;-)    

 

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Itll change to a degree but the OP GFS is just a disastrous run....rain fri/sat, then a big time rain maker Thursday Jan 30, chilly for a few days and then we're torching by the 4th of Feb:(

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