Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Does that 2-3" call seem to apply to N of the Pike as well?   

You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does.

Yeah, and ratios won't help.  The tail end especially.  Warm tongues and all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah, and ratios won't help.  The tail end especially.  Warm tongues and all

Let's hope theres something better next week for the area and beyond..?  This one Saturday was never really supposed to be all that great being the pattern is just starting to change.  Hopefully we get some more chances when the pattern is better established later next week?  Who knows though?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does.

My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. 

Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. 

To me the two keys are;

1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift.

2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. 

I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Wiz is liking the ratios at the onset.. 15:1-18:1, stack it up before the mid levels torch

Bufkit was spitting out some pretty solid ratios to begin...I think sometimes bufkit can be a little off with them but it makes sense that ratios will be higher than typical. If we are able to get some great lift into the DGZ while ratios are maximized that's when a few may really be able to cash in. 

There is still plenty of room to go go in either direction here...either quickly transitioning or colder air locked in a bit more depending on secondary development.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold. 

I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wiz not sure if ratios are that high overall. Maybe briefly in those initial fronto bursts? That will heavily depend on where the lift is.

Certainly agree...will really depend on where the lift is. 

I'm trying to think back to some of the previous examples in which ratios ended up slightly higher in these set ups...then sort of go back and do a quick re-analysis. But yeah...it's all going to be tied into lift. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are? 

Yeah cross heights for sure. But you can easily look at temp plots and advection plots. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah cross heights for sure. But you can easily look at temp plots and advection plots. 

Kinda doing so I think you can see how the strongest of the WAA sort of struggles to get in here...almost kinda weakens but it remains very strong to our SW which is pretty perfect actually. 

Also, I wonder if dynamic cooling may be a factor here...those dynamics in the llvls really crank up. 850's actually cool moving towards Saturday evening and the progression of the 0C line sorta of halts..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold. 

Would be nice to get a good thump to drizzle instead of an extended period of rain like some of the models have been showing...So bring that dryslot through here as quick as possible, the Nam was close to all frozen at the end of the run here. Hopefully that  trend continues...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. 

Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. 

To me the two keys are;

1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift.

2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. 

I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher? 

That’s too high for CT. We rarely see 5+ widespread in SWFE

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s too high for CT. We rarely see 5+ widespread in SWFE

That is the key word here!

This also isn't a typical SWFE. 

I think at this stage the probability for such a scenario occurring is high enough to not discount it and even high enough to lean towards that direction. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...