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January 18-19 SWFE

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16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I always wondered if the "2010-2011 is our year" was regarding sports or about the winter season in the Hartford area.

Avatar should give a clue ;) 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Avatar should give a clue ;) 

Right and i've seen that of course. But it also makes sense weather wise, weather wiz. 2010-2011 is def OUR year for CT snow. We got 3 major snow storms in Jan alone, a pack that would like VT on a good winter and many many more events, including box day. 2010-2011 was OUR year, just like 2014-2015 was E MA year.

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Looks like there is a warm nose in there @H92 In CT and SE MA, Sleet? Looks like the precip is over for the most part by then though after the initial thump.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Right and i've seen that of course. But it also makes sense weather wise, weather wiz. 2010-2011 is def OUR year for CT snow. We got 3 major snow storms in Jan alone, a pack that would like VT on a good winter and many many more events, including box day. 2010-2011 was OUR year, just like 2014-2015 was E MA year.

It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak :D 

But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak :D 

But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed. 

That was a nutty year for wild natural phenomena. Great winter, June 1 severe, record July heat, wet August, Irene, Octobomb etc. And elsewhere there was record tornadoes, April 27 outbreak, Joplin disaster, historic Japan tsunami. Just a wild year all around. 

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like there is a warm nose in there @H92 In CT and SE MA, Sleet? Looks like the precip is over for the most part by then though after the initial thump.

I could see you with 8 to 10

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Lets get that secondary reflection going even a little faster...that could provide a little enhanced lower level lift.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

At this time don't see any need to make adjustments from this. Did receive a comment yesterday that I am probably too cute with southern CT there...which I am. Sometimes I like to be cute though. I always just feel though coastal CT somehow always finds a way to flip in these setups. Could have just moved the 3-6'' line farther south and then have a 1-3'' shading 

356059400_1stcallsnowmap.png.632f5188933ba07f8f61d9c7350d6d69.png

As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. 

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Models are starting to pick up on that feature of a developing secondary, Euro has had it now the last 3 runs or so, Nam looked to have picked up on it before then too, That's what has been enhancing some of the totals here and to the coast.

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15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. 

I factor that thinking into a lot of the maps, this one is no exception. SE CT is the worst spot for this storm, NW CT hills, the best.

01.16.20_snow_forecast_1.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Any room for that?

Yeah sure...if it develops a bit faster, then we'll see a more enhanced CF form and that will focus some lower lift just on the north/northwest side of it which could give some enhanced totals by an inch or two.

Scott mentioned it earlier this morning I think...but somewhere from NE MA down 128/I-95 and then back WSW near the CT shoreline could see a little enhancement if that happens.

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Cobb05 integrates temp moisture and omega through the whole column to determine ratios. 

Cobb11 takes the same method but adjusted for more realistic ratios per climatology. 

Theres a paper or a description around somewhere. 

Way better than just kuchera or 10:1 imo. 

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i wonder if those two numbers after Cobb are the year it was updated or adjusted. Because ive seen other numbers as well in different versions of BUFKIT. 

Edit: They are years.

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RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined.

I'm hoping the warming and changeover is timed perfectly with the precip shutting off around here, and it's looking more and more like that's whats going to happen. Hopefully just some dz at the end

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36 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. 

I am going to make some slight adjustments such as bringing the 3-6'' farther south and just put a 1-3'' along immediate shoreline

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2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ah, thanks i didnt see that. What a pain in the butt to scroll through all those files though! And the GFS fronto maps dont even work, only NAM is working.

ECMWF total QPF for 6Z.Some at the very end is lost to liquid for southern areas. 80-85% is frozen though. At 3Z the 925 line makes it up to 84

ecmwf-deterministic-massachusetts-t925-9402800.thumb.png.c96eed3af251ed2ef75aafe2c1e248cd.pngecmwf-deterministic-massachusetts-total_precip_inch-9438800.thumb.png.ed70184a980fa854fd7f85f2b6513de9.png

didn't realize the EC had gone that high on qpf.  that would be 6-10 for many in CNE NNE with good ratios.  Seems to be a sign of an incoming slight overperformer as Jeff has suggested.  Maybe we are trending back a bit to what was shown 4-5 days ago.  wouldn't be the first time.

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I got my first real in depth look at this in a day or two, in the last few minutes.

I'm not really concerned at all for mix and rain here in Boston. It looks like a scenario where the best lift is gone before the changeover. It's not a beefed up SWFE though. 3-6" is a good range for me to Scott imho.

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