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HoarfrostHubb

January 18-19 SWFE

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a widespread system.... compared to some compact ones, this has a huge swath of snow.

What’s up with the hole over btv on most guidance

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23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What’s up with the hole over btv on most guidance

BTV mentions it in their discussion  

Unfortunately, the magnitude and direction of this jet will
likely allow for downsloping along the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, with locally lower snowfall
totals in these areas.

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

BTV mentions it in their discussion  

Unfortunately, the magnitude and direction of this jet will
likely allow for downsloping along the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, with locally lower snowfall
totals in these areas.

Should upslope for the southern and central Dacks

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-171700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0001.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, and Springfield
335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...The Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts and
  Connecticut, the east slopes of the Berkshires and Tolland
  County in Connecticut.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Saturday
  evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at rates of an inch per hour
  at times Saturday evening. The bulk of the accumulating snow is
  Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
  • Like 1

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX gone wild? How is there a WSW? There’s not even enough QPF for that.

I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening.

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Not to mention these numbers don't make sense. How can a Watch be issued when you have a 0% chance for most of the Watch area and a high end amount of 4 or 5" in CT.

There has to be 50% confidence for a Watch so these maps don't add up.

ProbSnowGE06.thumb.png.cdbcdbea68adc21c0ef1e1791129b183.png

SnowAmt90Prcntl.thumb.png.59d5225831d634cae8f1f0341a6aa12f.png

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Somebody went into a lot of detail to come up with this.

image.thumb.png.b346810f7b33a4938cf41966b8366f4b.png

 

Love the look of that.  Perhaps I can both get and eek out a warning verification (is that 7 or 8 for GYX??)..  

BOX has a watch for here which I doubt will verify.  GYX has no watch as of now yet may verify.  The advisory/warning drumbeat  of '19-20 continues.  :)

 

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17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening.

Blizzard24 at the desk?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Blizzard24 at the desk?

He was then USCAPEAFWEATHER broke-in, stabbed him in the eye and took over command. Then Snow88 drove up to Norwood in his cruiser and arrested him, but not before expanding the watches.

  • Haha 7

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BOX's most-likely and 90% maps are essentially identical......that doesn't seem to make sense.

EDIT:  Perhaps they expect the same qpf and the only determining factor is  whether they taint.  Since they don't expect that, you get the 50% and 90% being the same.   That said, I'm still not sure where they're getting the qpf to warrant watches.

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One thing that is definitely broken, without question, in those maps is the 6 -hr snow totals. If you add them up you get 12" Torrington, 11" Windsor Locks, 10" Hartford, 9" Willimantic, 11" Worcester. Huh?

Even down here the numbers are around 7"

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BOX hittin the tequila hard. Lol. What are they seeing that we have some how glanced over in our micro analysis of this event for the past 7 days? I’d love those totals, just wondering where they are getting these LOL numbers from?

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3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

BOX hittin the tequila hard. Lol. What are they seeing that we have some how glanced over in our micro analysis of this event for the past 7 days? I’d love those totals, just wondering where they are getting these LOL numbers from?

read the AFD

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39 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Seems pretty straight forward. They believe in the thump with little changeover albeit the south shore/I95. Sounds good to me

NAM!

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06z Euro pretty typical for a SWFE with totals remaining uniform, SLP looks to get going along the Maine coast the last couple runs so some enhancement there.

image.thumb.png.80949febb589346dc38f6e3b0b8075b8.png

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58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

read the AFD

Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense.  The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening.  That's 4-8".  There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6".

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z Euro pretty typical for a SWFE with totals remaining uniform, SLP looks to get going along the Maine coast the last couple runs so some enhancement there.

image.thumb.png.80949febb589346dc38f6e3b0b8075b8.png

Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly?  Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly?  Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7

Yeah, Been a slight uptick in the modeled QPF, We won't have to worry about any taint.

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9 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense.  The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening.  That's 4-8".  There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6".

I'll sell above 6". Maybe a narrow area if there is enhancement with the front, but I don't see their reasoning. Unless they think we are getting 15-20:1 ratios.

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