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Albedoman

WINTER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND EVENT JAN 18-19, 2020

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

11am newscast: Glenn going with 1" or less for parts S/E of Philly...1" for Philly...1-3" for local Burbs and 3-4" for the Reading Allentown areas. I think it's a good call...

Agreed. Doubt we see much non-frozen up here. Thinking about an inch or so snow then lots of sleet.

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9 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

WXSIM with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5"

Here is the rundown:

  • 10am snow arrives temp (22.2)
  • 1pm Moderate IP (23.6)
  • 4pm Heavy IP (23.4)
  • 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6)
  • Snow ends around 8pm

So it's looking like we'll stay well below freezing for this entire event? Nice.

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Euro was much colder., pretty sure 95 stays frozen the whole storm. If it changes to rain, it's at most light or drizzle. Great trends! Let's keep em going now..

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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WXSIM with 18z GFS/NAM backing off on the snow but hitting sleet harder - thus reducing snow/sleet totals by about an inch - total now 2" to 3" at most - however as I mentioned early this AM I am not surprised NWS brought the WWA down into Western Chester County with their 4pm update - the fascinating (to me) big battle tomorrow will be on temps - the NWS P&C has me at 37 while WXSIM only 26.....very rare to see that large spread between WXSIM and NWS...who will win the great battle of NW Chesco weather??? stay tuned!!

Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A
 slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the
 afternoon. High 26. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
 
 Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
 after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of sleet, snow, and
 freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of freezing
 rain and sleet after midnight. Low 24, but temperatures rising after midnight.
 Wind chill ranging from 15 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half
 an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any
 freezing rain accumulation.

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2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Just looked closer at the 18z GFS....that may be the strangest snow map I have ever seen for a non-Miller B event - verification chances.....I would not bet a lot on that

 

image.png.53e3bf1ed785bfe70f2ff2f4c3ded5f3.png

^That is an odd (not correct) map but benefits me so I'll agree with it. What's up with the slice of pizza in upper Bucks county? Seriously it's not going to work out this way.....

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Will be interesting to see how that initial band plays out. It seems to be backbuilding/filling in north of the pa border. If we can limit the lull that would really help out totals.

 

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Will be interesting to see how that initial band plays out. It seems to be backbuilding/filling in north of the pa border. If we can limit the lull that would really help out totals.

 

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

For Ralph (Steve)   whats up with this lull.  Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind?

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3 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

I’ll take an hour of snow and like it!

Could always move to Newfoundland. LOL

21 degrees New Garden Twp. 

25.5°F and 43% RH about 15 miles north of Avondale, give or take. I'm also at about 450' ASL. When I moved back here in '09 with my SoCal-raised wife, I told her that this is the type of winter we usually had growing up, and then we got hit with the epic '09 and '10 winters, so she didn't believe me. But now that we've had more than a few years of mediocre winters in a row, she gets it.

She got hooked on lots of snow during those years and now we ultimately want to move somewhere more north. Somewhere with a real, consistent winter. NFL sounds nice. :)

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21 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

For Ralph (Steve)   whats up with this lull.  Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind?

Honestly I've been thinking a lot, if not all, of that first line could be virga, at least down this way where the line gets thinner. The air is pretty dry. Hoping it's not of course!

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22F/3DP here. There is that initial band, but it looks like there are lighter returns behind it. Snow or virga? Have to check obs in W Pa.

Kamu, let's get that snow pile started today!

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53 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

For Ralph (Steve)   whats up with this lull.  Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind?

Lull was forecast. It is the gap between the WAA band and the front. Should be intermittent stuff then resume this afternoon. 2-5" up your way with possible mixing. 

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Latest WXSIM with 6z - looks like WXSIM is winning for now the great battle vs NWS temp wise....NWS has now moved my P&C to 32 degree high - WXSIM still colder.

Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the
 morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 27. Wind south near calm in
 the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an
 inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight, with
 scattered light frost possible. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening,
 then a slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures
 rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 24. Wind south-southwest
 around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2
 to 3 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

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24 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

22F/3DP here. There is that initial band, but it looks like there are lighter returns behind it. Snow or virga? Have to check obs in W Pa.

Kamu, let's get that snow pile started today!

Lol, I would love too. It's cold enough for driveway stickage, but confidence isn't high down here. Snow shovels are still in the barn so as not to jinx it. Like it makes a difference, lol.

Also had a kettle fire last night - pulled out all the stops!

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12 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

^That is an odd (not correct) map but benefits me so I'll agree with it. What's up with the slice of pizza in upper Bucks county? Seriously it's not going to work out this way.....

It looks almost like it's trying to predict a low running up east central PA with a warm front that gets "hung up" near SE PA/N. DE.  I don't recall seeing hung-up fronts that far east - usually they do that further south and west over the apps and eventually "snap up" and move northeast relatively quickly.

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21 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest WXSIM with 6z - looks like WXSIM is winning for now the great battle vs NWS temp wise....NWS has now moved my P&C to 32 degree high - WXSIM still colder.

Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the
 morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 27. Wind south near calm in
 the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an
 inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight, with
 scattered light frost possible. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening,
 then a slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures
 rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 24. Wind south-southwest
 around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2
 to 3 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

Wasn't WXSIM calling for upwards of 12" several days ago? What is it's track record regarding forecasts? Seems foolhardy to me to give it any credence if it's that far off only a few days in advance. Not trolling, asking honestly. Obviously we all want more snow and we all want the medium- to long-range forecasts to be more accurate, but that seems kind of ridiculous to me.

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