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WINTER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND EVENT JAN 18-19, 2020

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I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here?

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25 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here?

the only thing I noticed is that there will much more cold air to work with than previous storms this winter which means the ground will below freezing this time. Accumulation will be almost immediate on the roads where not treated and on the grass. Lots of brine being applied for Friday, thats for sure. Maybe more lift and banding as the warm front comes through Saturday will enable more snow accumulation. Soundings should be interesting as more Pacific data is sampled as the LP gets on shore by wednesday evening.

 

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Wxsim looks a bit tamer now with 3" to 6" of snow/IP - it will change as the models move....stay tuned!

Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of
 sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill around 19. Wind
 south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 12
 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on
 ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches.

 
 Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
 after midnight. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a slight
 chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising
 after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 28. Wind south around 11 mph,
 gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight.
 Chance of precipitation 80 percent.  Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

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59 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

So true...usually 1-2+ hours sooner. It's always depressing.

And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later...

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And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later...
Agreed. Not a fan of these events. The models always delay the flip which rises expectations. Then when I hear the first few "pings" hours before it was forecast. Big let down. But honestly this still should be the biggest even of the "winter" so far.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later...

And once Philly flips I'm about 1/2 later...

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It's so damn hard to get a all snow event these days. Seems to get worse every year. I just want to see snow on the roads at this point. No matter how little...just snow covered.  

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11 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Canadian drying up a bit. 781425956cdb39b282b6aa19b0f6c5fc.gif

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Can't say I'm not surprised. They all start out impressive, and then when it's "go time" they end up being a 1-3 or 2-4 inch slopfest...

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49 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo. 

Looking like a trivial event maybe we can score 1" which would be our largest storm of the season. <deep breath.....exhales slowly> sigh

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Can't say I'm not surprised. They all start out impressive, and then when it's "go time" they end up being a 1-3 or 2-4 inch slopfest...

@mattinpa, what confused you about this post? The GFS is slowly cutting totals, and the 12z Euro today drastically cut them. We see it all the time. Juiced up system a week out, and then the qpf and/or snow totals get whittled down. Likely due to more ip/zr vs snow as the qpf on this one hasn't changed much. I suppose there's a reason why they are called fantasy maps, but still...

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Just now, Voyager said:

@mattinpa, what confused you about this post? The GFS is slowly cutting totals, and the 12z Euro today drastically cut them. We see it all the time. Juiced up system a week out, and then the qpf and/or snow totals get whittled down. Likely due to more ip/zr vs snow as the qpf on this one hasn't changed much. I suppose there's a reason why they are called fantasy maps, but still...

Still too far out to know it will be a non event. With the low placement, there is no way we are getting a big storm, but it is worth watching. For a time we have had a lot of storms work out. The last couple seasons have been different, but we have had luck over the past 10-15 years.

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5 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Still too far out to know it will be a non event. With the low placement, there is no way we are getting a big storm, but it is worth watching. For a time we have had a lot of storms work out. The last couple seasons have been different, but we have had luck over the past 10-15 years.

I don't think it'll be a non-event, but what was being depicted over the weekend sure looks like it's off the table (for now anyway). In 2 days I went from a 6-10 on the clown maps to 3-6. The Euro was the most drastic though, showing 8" on today's 0z to just 4" on the 12z.

And I hope you don't think that I was/am being "snarky", because I wasn't trying to be. It's just that I, and most of the rest of us as well, have seen this play out before.

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The new snow hype GFS is one of the problems which hasn't changed since last winter, can't look at those fantasy winter maps. They corrected some of the issue where it snowed too much when boundary layers were garbage but the problem persists. But many are aware of these issues chalk this next debacle to the ECM miss handling the strong SE ridge. 

What is more troubling is today's ECM day 10 and the tepid temperatures in north america all the arctic cold is on the other side of the pole, which is bad news for the last week of January pattern change.  

 

 

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Am I missing something? The QPF is jumping around (of course) but the setup still looks pretty damn similar, If anything it looks like it may be slowing down a bit which would help out. You guys know way more then me, but it doesnt look like a ton has really changed.

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6 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said:

Am I missing something? The QPF is jumping around (of course) but the setup still looks pretty damn similar, If anything it looks like it may be slowing down a bit which would help out. You guys know way more then me, but it doesnt look like a ton has really changed.

Slowing down is what you don't want, you needed the moisture surging into the retreating arctic high to get dynamic snows, delay that and south winds screw up everything.

 

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't think it'll be a non-event, but what was being depicted over the weekend sure looks like it's off the table (for now anyway). In 2 days I went from a 6-10 on the clown maps to 3-6. The Euro was the most drastic though, showing 8" on today's 0z to just 4" on the 12z.

And I hope you don't think that I was/am being "snarky", because I wasn't trying to be. It's just that I, and most of the rest of us as well, have seen this play out before.

No worries. I was just confused because we have had a lot of nice storms over the last decade.

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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Slowing down is what you don't want, you needed the moisture surging into the retreating arctic high to get dynamic snows, delay that and south winds screw up everything.

 

Thanks for the clarity. 

 

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