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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

A big difference with this system is that we will be below freezing for about 36 hours before the onset of precipitation. And not just slightly below but well down into the teens anywhere north and west of New York City. 850s are cold and 2 meter wind speeds are variable and very light at 1 p.m. Saturday before the shift to the south wind and gradually increases. this should allow snow to hold on a little longer again mainly north and west of the city and probably not too far north and west. could be a nice little surprise 2 to 4in north of I-95 my big concern is how much moisture will be available with the initial thump

I always worry about a virga fest with low dews eating the initial snow further inland.  

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I always worry about a virga fest with low dews eating the initial snow further inland.  

that's what happened to me last week not a drop or flake while radar showed snow overhead for hours

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro a bit weaker this run with the primary. Allows for the area to hang onto snow a bit longer. 

4E637B21-30AD-4F03-9B05-2B240421275F.png

Let's hope for some more colder shifts

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29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Let's hope for some more colder shifts

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

850tw.conus.png

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That's a nice run by the euro. .6 l e from my area with 4in of that being snow I'll take that any day. My feeling is that the southerly flow at the surface is very weak until we're several hours into the precipitation field and as others have posted 850s stay below 32 degrees the entire storm. Temperatures are going to struggle to get above freezing until we're well Into the Storm especially the further away from the coast you are

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

850tw.conus.png

850 do get above 0 Celsius between 8 and 9 p.m. for most of the area but barely 4 northwest suburbs so I stand corrected in my post above

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

850tw.conus.png

Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation 

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nam is basically an all snow event!

I would love to believe that  but...would like to see Nam closer to its wheelhouse  ...which i guess would  be tomm oz?

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau 

No it’s definitely colder. Precip looks good too. Don’t see how this isn’t a better run for the majority in this sub forum.

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau 

What are you talking about! It’s for sure colder. 

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Its  not warmer elsewhere, just a minimal event(4-6 in the HV and catskills in mid Jan is nuisance stuff). 

Its colder 

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the city is not getting 6 from this.  Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches.   (which would be a huge win)

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

N and W for sure on the higher end.   

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If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

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Just now, Barman49 said:

If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling.

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It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. 

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the city is not getting 6 from this.  Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches.   (which would be a huge win)

Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility. 

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

I hate to be the one to tell you this but there is going to be a 65 mph SW jet at 850 mb at hour 78 on the 18z NAM.  That jet is not going to be bringing in colder air either.  

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility. 

I said 3-6 area wide is a possibility. Lower end in the city and northern suburbs could get 6 inches. I’m just going with the trend here. 

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It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. 

I get that part if the HP stayed up in NE but it doesn't it's SE of us. That's shifting the wind to the south. I understand the front end might be colder.

 

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Come on Tonyfeen

It does change to some light rain at the end as the surface warms but still 80% of the storm is frozen can’t deny that!

957743E2-E4A2-4A7B-992D-4628FA7E0F3C.png

54905857-5DBD-4E10-9323-52E8689412FE.png

ED3F7839-3603-43B6-9D1D-26BD9F82DFDE.png

24246A3B-BCFB-42D2-B698-B026A1439231.png

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