• Member Statistics

    15,756
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    McHenrySnow
    Newest Member
    McHenrySnow
    Joined
Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

Another excellent AFD from the LOT crew.  SE winds have scared me for life  sitting near the lake- shrugs.  Yesterday we got the bleeding to stop as expected and now another day of stable or better modeling would be good for the psyche.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

plumes decreased a bit at ORD but two distinct camps now with a decent cluster of respectable 4-5" hits above the mean which is weighed down by a bunch of clunkers

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And there's the NAM run that does what we feared with a faster changeover to sleet then freezing rain.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

between the dry SE flow and unfavorable low track, lots working against respectable snow at this point

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

between the dry SE flow and unfavorable low track, lots working against respectable snow at this point

 

 

Plus never underestimate WAA. Figuring on some mood flakes when I leave work tomorrow, then cold and brown. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, the RGEM keeps it all snow near/north of I-88. Still snowing at the end of the 06z run too. Again it’s the RGEM but atleast a snowier solution is somewhere in the realm of possibility.

A64608CA-13F2-4A59-B799-9B2B28EA04DF.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

FWIW, the RGEM keeps it all snow near/north of I-88. Still snowing at the end of the 06z run too. Again it’s the RGEM but atleast a snowier solution is somewhere in the realm of possibility.

A64608CA-13F2-4A59-B799-9B2B28EA04DF.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Northern extent of the 850 temps have trended south, over the past 24 hours, on the GFS. NAM 850s have started trending north. Feels like the WI/IL border will be a good compromise for northern extent of the 850s. 950 temps are slightly warmer. What that means for precip types, who knows.

 

gfs_T850_us_fh54_trend.thumb.gif.ea213a0fb7943c929e85b58b02ee4d86.gif

nam_T850_us_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.685349b6fe0e78cf41b2e7eb1b7362d8.gif

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

based on forum feedback I'm guessing 12Z runs were status quo................................................

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Baum said:

based on forum feedback I'm guessing 12Z runs were status quo................................................

we're riding the canadian now

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on latest trends, I would seem to think 4-6" is a good call for the GTA. If a solution like the GFS pans out with warmer sfc temps then I'd lean closer to 4". However, a majority of the other models keep us below freezing and if that were to pan out, I wouldn't be surprised to see some localized amounts near 7-8". Still riding 4-6". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fully expecting 1.5" of snow/sleet followed by drizzle > into the freezer for the weekend. Tips of grass blades won't get covered.

This forum will be a giddy place when we finally get a solid snow threat with no risk of mixing/garbage.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain.  However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint.  I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge.

On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

taint.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, IWXwx said:

A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain.  However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint.  I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge.

On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

taint.png

Agreed, someone should reach out to Levi...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still holding out for about 2-3" on the front end.  Will need to get into some good rates for it to happen.  I just can't buy into the coldest models in a setup like this.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still holding out for about 2-3" on the front end.  Will need to get into some good rates for it to happen.  I just can't buy into the coldest models in a setup like this.

WTOD fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 2,303,494 times, shame on me. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.