HillsdaleMIWeather

January 2020 Discussion

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Everyday I come home from work and check the board hoping something interesting has popped up.  Been like groundhog day the past month+.  One of these days maybe there'll be something.  Sheeesh, what a benign pattern we're stuck in.

remember that Halloween snow? Death knell. Never fails.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Everyday I come home from work and check the board hoping something interesting has popped up.  Been like groundhog day the past month+.  One of these days maybe there'll be something.  Sheeesh, what a benign pattern we're stuck in.

What more do you need

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.215cdb66898d10c0bd7e864600e8e3c4.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Baum said:

remember that Halloween snow? Death knell. Never fails.

If there's any positive news, it's that most of the early starting seasons in Chicago had at least one decent or good month in Jan, Feb, or Mar, even if the final total ended up being not so good.  So we'll see.  Notable exception in 1952-53... that whole thing majorly sucked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I disagree 100%. The thought of Detroit/Chicago becoming St Louis is laughable. Detroit consistently averages 6-8F colder than STL which means Chicago colder than that (DTW gets slight modification from Lake MI). Detroit just saw its snowiest decade on record, and records go to the 1870s. With snowfall on an Increasing trend and temps holding relatively steady, I have a hard time believing my snowfall is going to decrease 65% and my temps warm 7F or 8F in a decade or two
 
Please see below for the decadal snow averages for Detroit, St Louis, and Memphis. The 1960s stick out like a sore, snowy thumb in Memphis, and the just completed 2010s averaged snowier than the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s in Memphis. Comparing trends to the cold and/or snowy winters of the 1960s/1970s which were the exception, not the rule, at nearly all locations, is like me holding 2013-14 to the standard of being a "decent" winter.
S N O W F A L L

            Detroit - St Louis - Memphis

1890s – 42.7” - 18.6” - 9.0”

1900s – 46.3” - 20.5” - 3.8”

1910s – 39.7” - 25.7” - 8.5”

1920s – 46.1” - 13.1” - 2.9”

1930s – 32.9” - MM - 2.8”

1940s – 27.6” - 16.9” - 2.1”

1950s – 37.8” - 12.9” - 2.8”

1960s – 31.8” - 20.6” - 9.2”

1970s – 45.6” - 26.3” - 4.7”

1980s – 45.2” - 21.0” - 5.6”

1990s – 37.2” - 17.3” - 1.8”

2000s – 45.5” - 16.3” - 3.0”

2010s – 49.9” - 18.0” - 3.1”

 

For reference, here are DJF TEMPS

            Detroit - St Louis - Memphis

1880s: 27.2 - 33.2 – 42.4

1890s: 26.9 - 35.0 – 43.9

1900s: 25.1 - 33.3 – 42.5

1910s: 25.5 - 33.1 – 42.2

1920s: 26.7 - 34.9 – 44.0

1930s: 28.1 - 34.6 – 44.6

1940s: 27.0 - 33.1 – 42.1

1950s: 28.5 - 34.8 – 44.0

1960s: 26.5 - 31.6 – 40.8

1970s: 24.6 - 30.5 – 41.8

1980s: 26.3 - 32.9 – 42.4

1990s: 28.7 - 35.4 – 44.5

2000s: 27.8 - 34.8 – 43.9

2010s: 28.2 - 35.1 – 44.1

I've never seen it averaged by decade before. I'm not saying that the decay is going to affect Northern areas at the same rate. I do think locations running up to STL are at risk.

That said, one of the things that your decadenal averaging highlights is the importance of a -AO for local snowfall.

Now, my understanding is that the AO is mutidecadenal and it should flip back soon (theoretically meaning that we could see twice as much annual snowfall than we've been receiving) but- is it possible that it will not flip due to climate change?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mimillman said:

South Bend crusher

It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.

Drifts have got to be at least 3” in the bullseye. It’s gonna be a doozy.

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm surprised we haven't started a thread for this event.  Looks like a real barn burner.

EDIT:  Speaking of which, we've only had 4 event threads so far and we're now into January LMAO!!

dvfdf.jpg

Oh I have no doubt snow storm threads will be popping and hopping in March and April....

....the new f**king norm:rolleyes:

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty convective look to the precip with this northern stream wave.  Could see some localized 3-4" amounts in parts of MN/IA, maybe isolated higher?  Exciting stuff I know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here.

Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM likely has the best handle on that strong disturbance moving through the region.

North/wet is the way to go. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here.

Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening.

Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow.

Looks like an inch or so is possible here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3.8" Clarion, IA as of an hour ago. 

Probably going to make a run at 6" there, being in the pivot point.

Edit: New report of 5.5" a bit north of Clarion now. Someone is going to make a run at 6-8" around that area.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow.

Looks like an inch or so is possible here.  

I'm tempted to say over. Either for you or just north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow.

Looks like an inch or so is possible here.  

It's not looking as favorable here now.  The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area.  We may end up with only an inch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's not looking as favorable here now.  The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area.  We may end up with only an inch.

Yea, pivot point is currently transitioning from that N-C. Iowa area (near Clarion), to NE. Iowa now. Current trajectory would then bring it over towards DBQ-or nearby.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there.  Models handled this system poorly.  Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere.  The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there.  Models handled this system poorly.  Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere.  The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.

There was actually a corridor of 4-5” that extended up NW into SW. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota as well. But yea, that N-C. Iowa area is jackpot with 6-10”.

RGEM seems to have handled this event the best, as it was favoring a narrow corridor of higher totals, with even a few runs having 6-7” lolli’s.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


There was actually a corridor of 4-5” that extended up NW into SW. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota as well. But yea, that N-C. Iowa area is jackpot with 6-10”.

RGEM seems to have handled this event the best, as it was favoring a narrow corridor of higher totals, with even a few runs having 6-7” lolli’s.


.

Where does the model have the snow going next? Or is it going to weaken?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.