the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Next week looks to have several AN days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 hours ago, rclab said: Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... 97-98 had 0.5" until a surprise 5" snowfall in late March, preventing that winter from having the record lowest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Next week looks to have several AN days Yes in the southwest part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one? You can get cutters in any winter. 97-98 was a strong El Niño with a very fast pac jet. We literally never had a chance at snow. This winter is nothing like that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Cmc and eps has a ridge in the east around 240. We might be taking a step back . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +10.0[42.5]. Should be +6.4[38.6] by the 23rd. OK, using the next 17 day average temperature (28.6 or -3.5) as predicted by the GFS, January will end near +2.7. 44* here at 6am. 46* by 9am. 49* by Noon. 52* by2pm. 54* at 4pm. Do not expect more than 2" Sat., or even beyond. Models are back to the 50's by the 25th. or so. A great decade---but not now please. Which meteorologist will be the first to pull plug on this winter and admit there is no money for their proposed weather. They should debate on national TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Cmc and eps has a ridge in the east around 240. We might be taking a step back . Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now But the gfs shows a snowstorm at the end of the month. Eps has a cluster offshore. That might be the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +10.0[42.5]. Should be +6.4[38.6] by the 23rd. 44* here at 6am. Do not expect more than 2" Sat., or even beyond. Models are back to the 50's by the 25th. or so. A great decade---but not now please. Which meteorologist will be the first to pull plug on this winter and admit there is no money for their proposed weather. They should debate on national TV. What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? Not looking great all the sudden. January could have an incredible +++ departure if next weekend ends up warm. NYC is something like +10 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? The flip is still coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The flip is still coming of course it is....wait for it, wait for it, wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The flip is still coming we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... Do you have a magic 8th ball to tell you how the rest of the winter will be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: of course it is....wait for it, wait for it, wait.... In PB we trust Why do you think the rest of the winter will suck ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... You will have colder days next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... Bad definitive posts will usually come back to bite you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: In PB we trust Why do you think the rest of the winter will suck ? Never said it would suck, but I'm starting to doubt we see anything memorable. There was no ridging 2 days ago on models now that's showing up....(and we know how that works-name a winter warmup that did not over-perform) Some cold mixed in with warmups, hopefully a snowstorm or two to salvage things. Last time NYC saw a storm of more than 4 inches? Nov 2018. Let's hope we can at least get that and hopefully more. Give me a Feb 2006 storm and I'd call it a day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern. Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The preliminary AO value today was +3.622. The January 1-15, AO average was +3.560. That is the second highest such figure on record since daily AO values were recorded beginning in 1950. It is only the fourth case on record where the AO averaged +3.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. The three prior cases were: 1989 +3.480 1993 +3.886 2007 +3.342 In two of the three prior cases, the AO averaged > 0 during February. In all three cases, the AO averaged > 0 in March. More importantly, all three prior cases saw a colder than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For the December 1-January 15 period, the AO has averaged +1.429. The AO has been positive on 70% days and negative on 30% days. It has also been at +3.000 or above on 33% days. Mean seasonal snowfall in New York City for the 11 cases where the December 1-January 15 AO average was +1.000 or above was 18.5". When the 3 cases with an AO average of +2.000 are excluded, the mean seasonal snowfall figure was 18.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week. Agree, also too much cold and high pressure could suppress systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, donsutherland1 said: The preliminary AO value today was +3.622. The January 1-15, AO average was +3.560. That is the second highest such figure on record since daily AO values were recorded beginning in 1950. It is only the fourth case on record where the AO averaged +3.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. The three prior cases were: 1989 +3.480 1993 +3.886 2007 +3.342 In two of the three prior cases, the AO averaged > 0 during February. In all three cases, the AO averaged > 0 in March. More importantly, all three prior cases saw a colder than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For the December 1-January 15 period, the AO has averaged +1.429. The AO has been positive on 70% days and negative on 30% days. It has also been at +3.000 or above on 33% days. Mean seasonal snowfall in New York City for the 11 cases where the December 1-January 15 AO average was +1.000 or above was 18.5". When the 3 cases with an AO average of +2.000 are excluded, the mean seasonal snowfall figure was 18.9". Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’. It seem, at time like this, the long range models should come embedded with A rendition of Over The Rainbow, sung beautifully by Judy Garland. “If happy little blue birds fly beyond the rainbow why oh why can’t I?” As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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