• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Both the GFS and Euro were very close to being a big event. I like where we are currently. Lots of time for adjustments... hopefully colder adjustments. 

How many times do we actually see SE/colder corrections of storms? Really? Christmas 2010??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Hard to say. More consolidation imo at h5. 

18z icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

12zicon_z500_vort_us_43.png

 

Very evident 3 pieces of energy 

Others are better at this but I think the 12z looks better. It's a tick SW with a sharper western trough. Then there's the energy over VA on the 12z that is much less consolidated and weaker on the 18z. I beleive that would be the peice that helps with the cold press as well as keeping the main low further south. My guess is it would end up warmer and further north on the 18z. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WPC for next weekend already seeing the opportunity. Although it's a low chance for now , at least the possibility exists.68b61ba54313b2abc14873cdfe1f6699.jpg

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

Well good news for you; you don't have to wait for it to end, it never started! 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 3
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

Don’t y’all know, the great pattern is coming mid February! The pattern is looking great! -NAO, big PNA ridge, PV split! Fab Feb incoming, and March 1960 redux!

  • Haha 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we get something, I don't think it will be something we track from Day 10.  I think it'll pop up in the 5-6 day range and we reel it in from there.  I've abandoned even looking at the Day 10 models bc they flip flop so much.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z ICON Hammers I-81 with 12-18" of snow. But a very sharp cut off to the east... where it's mainly rain.

Lmao just beat me to it. Was typing as you were posting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Buddy1987 said:

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming. 

Would love to see that snow line go 50-75 miles more east....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RT1980 said:

For certain posters though right?

 

3 minutes ago, jburns said:

Keep the BS in the banter thread.

Who was that meant for I'm not understanding?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Buckfever2 said:

 

Who was that meant for I'm not understanding?

It wasn’t meant for you.  I deleted the posts in question.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Queencitywx said:

@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The progression of next weekends storm system on the 00z GFS was very weird. At hr 138 it has the LP center just west of Tampa, FL.  Then at 142 it has the LP center over Nashville, TN. :blink:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RT1980 said:

To get back to weather, what are the trends for the following week in everyone’s opinion?

It’s not far off if you believe the better modeling. It’s well within error range at this point to end up with something. Probably less than a 30% chance but that’s the best odds all winter. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...