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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol, well it was probably wasn't as memorable for most of the LSV but there was major nor-easter in Dec '92 that dumped similar snowfall amounts to the 93 superstorm in the interior. I think 50+ of UNV's 92" that season came just from those two events. Back when this part of the state used to see 20"+ snowstorms. 

 

There you go.  Jim Cantore with the high hair and I looked at MDT's 92 totals before sending that post but did not go out past that.  Had just never heard anyone says Blizzard of 92 but my sometimes unfortunate LSV shaded glasses may have blinded me.   I did make a post for the benefit of our Williamsport friends today so I am not always selfish.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There you go.  Jim Cantore with the high hair and I looked at MDT's 92 totals before sending that post but did not go out past that.  Had just never heard anyone says Blizzard of 92 but my sometimes unfortunate LSV shaded glasses may have blinded me.   I did make a post for the benefit of our Williamsport friends today so I am not always selfish.

 

 

Nah your not being selfish haha, I thought it was a good opportunity to bust out the vintage TWC coverage. 

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CTP did acknowledge next weekend in the long term this afternoon.

Quote
The operational ECMWF and GFS models are hinting at a potential
winter storm to impact the Eastern U.S. to kick of the month of
February around Groundhog Day. This would be the third weekend
in a row that the region faces a significant storm threat. This
far out, there is a wide range of possibilities with the track,
intensity and timing [details] of the storm which are very
likely to change in the coming days. So just a heads-up for now
and will continue to monitor.

 

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27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS version of the SB Weekend storm.  A bit close for S/E folks. 

 

image.png.7e7a293446e6bf6acc1790ee1c9ccdde.png

 

It looks like we are back in business for next weekend !

& just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like we are back in business for next weekend !

& just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !

Ok Blizzard of 77.  

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Def a decent signal for a storm in that D8 or so timeframe, as models set up a nice western ridge for a change and it appears to be a time of amplification overall in the pattern over the CONUS. The Euro's southern wave kinda gets buried initially and seems like a later interaction with the northern stream, causing what it had at 12z. GFS and and Euro control had earlier phasing and thus cut the low too far west. Going to come down to timing of shortwaves, position/amplitude of the western ridge, and amount of phasing. There's a lot of different shortwaves running around in that time period on the models, so there could be some wound up solutions showing up (like yesterdays 954 on the GFS) if there's a clean phase. So yea, the potential is there. That's all the further I'm going into it for now. After how this week went for what ultimately is ending up a rainer for everyone inbound tonight and tomorrow I'm on a prove it to me basis for anything that doesn't actually cut west of us. 

Mag don't beat yourself up to bad. Weather pattern has been wrecking havoc with the models.

Appreciate all your thoughts and forcasts!! Even though you messed one up this week. :facepalm:    :P

My new motto...Either we're all going to get hammered. Or nobody gets anything. 

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13 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Mag don't beat yourself up to bad. Weather pattern has been wrecking havoc with the models.

Appreciate all your thoughts and forcasts!! Even though you messed one up this week. :facepalm:    :P

 

Ditto...

Mag, you are invaluable to our forum. I, and I'm sure no one else, expects you to be right every time. 

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Mildly interesting that most short term models are advertising 2-6" over a fairly sizable portion of PA but no WWA's.

Edit-Here is the latest HRR but the 3K Nam and WRF's are signalling a pasting in even a larger area.  NWS is going against it looking at their zones and AFD.   The HRR even gets it into Dauphin county tomorrow. 

image.png.b01768f04e2f6553978ab165342612cd.png

 

 

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Just now, canderson said:

Only mixing to 20 or so here. 

We seem to really be in a wind tunnel rising up the side of the range.  I got the speed from a local Wunderground report but I can hear it very loudly so I knew it was up there.  Mostly gusty....sustained is in the low teens.

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30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Boy is it windy...gusts in the 40's. 

 

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Only mixing to 20 or so here. 

All calm here, for now anyway.

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I've been thinking about this post since you posted it. I wish Zack Labe (Blizzard92) was on here more. I feel like this is something he would be able to touch on, as I *believe* he has become something of a climate scientist, if my memory serves me right.

Although the Harrisburg WeatherStation smooth around some and it’s like from downtown Harrisburg over to the Middletown area I think the biggest issue which I do not have an idea of how big of an effect it would be would be the quality control of measurements and the method used. Aside from see below because it did not matter. After the 1960s those years owned 5 of top 10!snowiest winters and also #11 & #19

Hindsight being 20/20 I like to try to put myself in a position of what people would’ve thought back then and after the 1960s they had just experienced winters that ranked #1,2,3,7,10,11, & 19 to date. Going back another 3 years to include the winters of 57’-58’ & 59-60 you could include #24 & #25 on that list. So before the winter of 57’-58’ from the winter of 1889-1890 to through the winter of 1956-1957 years, there were 18 winters with at least 40” of snow. Basically 1 every 3.77 years. There were 5 winters over 50”, or 1 every 13.6 years. Over the next 13 years 8 winters had 40” or above to bring the total to 26 and the average down 17% to 1 every 3.12 years. Those 13 years also doubled the amount of winters over 50”, the total now being 10 and bringing the average down to 1 every 8 years. The average snowfall before 58’-59’ was 32.2”. The average after was 34.4”, a 6.8% jump in 13 years.


. Pro

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10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


Although the Harrisburg WeatherStation smooth around some and it’s like from downtown Harrisburg over to the Middletown area I think the biggest issue which I do not have an idea of how big of an effect it would be would be the quality control of measurements and the method used. Aside from see below because it did not matter. After the 1960s those years owned 5 of top 10!snowiest winters and also #11 & #19

Hindsight being 20/20 I like to try to put myself in a position of what people would’ve thought back then and after the 1960s they had just experienced winters that ranked #1,2,3,7,10,11, & 19 to date. Going back another 3 years to include the winters of 57’-58’ & 59-60 you could include #24 & #25 on that list. So before the winter of 57’-58’ from the winter of 1889-1890 to through the winter of 1956-1957 years, there were 18 winters with at least 40” of snow. Basically 1 every 3.77 years. There were 5 winters over 50”, or 1 every 13.6 years. Over the next 13 years 8 winters had 40” or above to bring the total to 26 and the average down 17% to 1 every 3.12 years. Those 13 years also doubled the amount of winters over 50”, the total now being 10 and bringing the average down to 1 every 8 years. The average snowfall before 58’-59’ was 32.2”. The average after was 34.4”, a 6.8% jump in 13 years.


. Pro

I imagine people like us, snow hours coming off the highs of the 1960"s, probably complained like us as well as they grew used to it thoughtful then we're cut off.  Though I did notice that as the decade wore on the totals slowly went down from there peaks early on...so they were weaned off it to some degree.

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The wind is actually shaking our house right now. Winds don't really impress me but it is howling!

Wonder why such a discrepancy fir a fairly short distance. My highest gutsy tonight is around 22 mph. 

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I should have known by the lack of posts that the 0z GFS for next weekend was crap tonight...lol 

But the wind finally got here. Really starting to rattle the windows and clang the annoying wind chimes now.

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Well this storm had some snowy surprises up it's sleeve after all. This cam is east of State College on US 322 near the crest of the Seven Mountains area. That truck is stuck.

620783237_ScreenShot2020-01-25at5_20_49AM.png.6ec1ee5bc2c684928fbbd50de2c5e86e.png

 

Edit: They flipped the camera around, there's a bunch of stuff stuck. Also got snow on roads on the 511 cam near Mill Hall/Lock Haven.

51314947_ScreenShot2020-01-25at5_33_42AM.png.f04636270f5d8b3cd1003f3a8df83c33.png

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It's 38 with moderate to occasionally heavy rain and wind here. Already 0.36" in the gauge. I know the synoptic answer to this, but I'll ask it anyway. Where is this kind of start off when it's cold enough to snow? We'd be pushing 4 inches already with some drifting taking place.

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These pictures of snow in the mountains & up in northern PA this morning show that we could have been close to a good storm if the track ended up near some of the earlier in the week modeled ideas. Even with a bad track, it was just cold enough to get some places enough snow to cause problems this morning.

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