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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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I expected some elevation and isolated “winners” with this one but late pop of secondary started to show up and I pulled chips off as soon as I saw that. Glad for those who are scoring. 

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The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend.

The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider.

The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight.

All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend.

The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider.

The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight.

All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

 

Unfortunately that's probably the game we play trying to hope for a partial phase.  It's a one in whatever chance. 

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17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I expected some elevation and isolated “winners” with this one but late pop of secondary started to show up and I pulled chips off as soon as I saw that. Glad for those who are scoring. 

Score another victory for the HRRR and Nam. 

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29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend.

The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider.

The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight.

All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

Did you see the snow maps from 318 to 342? Gives the coastal plain from Savannah to Virginia Beach a solid 6-12 inches...lol

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Did you see the snow maps from 318 to 342? Gives the coastal plain from Savannah to Virginia Beach a solid 6-12 inches...lol

:runs to southeast forum to watch the chaos:

  • Haha 1

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Unfortunately that's probably the game we play trying to hope for a partial phase.  It's a one in whatever chance. 

We just need a decent storm track that goes under us to our east while the low is strengthening. We are still in peak climo for winter temps. The I-95 crowd might struggle unless they get a perfect track. Back here in the interior, we stand a better chance with a slightly less than ideal track.

I would be fine with a run 3-6 or 4-8 inch type of snowstorm. The chance of a magical 1-2 feet historic snow storm is always remote.

I do like the change this time that suppression is on the table. That gives us a wide range of potential, & supports the idea of a storm possibly going under us.

We will see what 12z has to say in the game of weather model roulette.

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Did you see the snow maps from 318 to 336? Gives the coastal plain from Savannah to Virginia Beach a solid 6-12 inches...lol

Yes, This is what I’m getting at.

Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens.

This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

:runs to southeast forum to watch the chaos:

Seeing that the SE is potentially getting in the action is a great sign. 
 

edit. What blizzard just said 5 seconds before I did. :thumbsup:

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, This is what I’m getting at.

Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens.

This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

Definitely. 

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I can concur with @Cashtown_Coop....1.44" of rainfall overnight.  Wow.  Actually, I was saying to my wife yesterday that up until then this month had been quite dry.  I only had 1.24" of liquid through yesterday.  Now, that just literally more than doubled to 2.68".  Still below normal precip for Jan.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, This is what I’m getting at.

Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens.

This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

Get yer' Icon... fresh off the grill. 

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20 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Not going to lie the Southeast forum annoys me at times, will have a huge severe event unfolding in their backyard but be talking about a possible cool down at 276 hours on GFS.

It’s perspective. Same in Texas sometimes. 

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s a nice start to the 12z models today!

 

GFS misses any sort of phase.  My Biggest issue with all this is found in this Panel from mid day Saturday (next weekend).  Going to take a specific circumstance to make a snow storm out of above freezing surface temps to our north. 

 

image.png.f2c09a42d6c7f0bcbcf86fde1296dc5e.png

 

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s a nice start to the 12z models today!

03BE4E19-F358-4EAC-8CA9-580931B25B34.png

GFS is right where we want it. 1step closer. 49 more to go....:lol:

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS misses any sort of phase.  My Biggest issue with all this is found in this Panel from mid day Saturday (next weekend).  Going to take a specific circumstance to make a snow storm out of above freezing surface temps to our north. 

 

image.png.f2c09a42d6c7f0bcbcf86fde1296dc5e.png

 

It just has to be cold enough, & southern Canada looks plenty cold. A decent coastal will work just fine this time of year.

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IMO Too far out to really dig deep.  With the variability on the models we need some continuity. Best takeaway is that we have stuff to track and if all works out we will need plows n shovels. Personally I’m happy to be in the game. Looking forward to tracking what seems like a legit threat window. 

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It just has to be cold enough, & southern Canada looks plenty cold. A decent coastal will work just fine this time of year.

That is where you and I differ.  To me Southern Canada is a frying pan on the panel.  Low 30's.  Really no cold air to work with except the layers above which means has to be heavy snow assuming those panels are exact.  

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

IMO Too far out to really dig deep.  With the variability on the models we need some continuity. Best takeaway is that we have stuff to track and if all works out we will need plows n shovels. Personally I’m happy to be in the game. Looking forward to tracking what seems like a legit threat window. 

Exactly, tracking a legit threat is part of the fun of this hobby. We are in the game. If we get a good tracking coastal this time of year, we have a chance here in the interior.

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is where you and I differ.  To me Southern Canada is a frying pan on the panel.  Low 30's.  Really no cold air to work with except the layers above which means has to be heavy snow assuming those panels are exact.  

Coastal storms usually bring good precip, so we should be good. There is no torch this week, just slightly above average for late January can get it done here.

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The 12z Euro has a deepening coastal storm that develops in the southeast & rides up the coast as it strengthens.

To me, the precip shield looks underdone with a storm that deepens from 996 off of the NC coast to 987 near Norfolk then down to 971 off of the NJ coast. I would take my chances with this look for back here in the Susquehanna Valley.

We are still 1 week out & the track & strength will of course vary with each model run. 

I am getting more confident that the models are leaning towards the idea of a coastal storm instead of a cutter or suppressed storm. 

3B11332A-68F5-4986-B43D-2F152BEF0BBE.png

D2852515-1984-4194-8079-355278709B2F.png

68B98576-5EA2-4425-B2E2-034301410D66.png

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Looks like 1.68" might just do it for this event, unless that band to the west makes it through here. How much did everyone else see? Over in the Philly thread, some have gotten over the 2 inch mark.

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