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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Nothing of note in GFS.... seems too many pieces but needed to come together in less than favorable environment.

I was curious to see what it did with the 3 day snow for the 5,6,7th on the 18z.  Just totally dropped.

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7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was curious to see what it did with the 3 day snow for the 5,6,7th on the 18z.  Just totally dropped.

Ops this far out are going to bounce around like a ping pong.  Not unexpected IMO.  

step 1.  keep the cold in the east

step 2. keep the storms coming along

step 3. wait patiently (hardest step) ;)

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Hopefully take a look at things on Wednesday morning and see how things look. Right now the models are messing with us. :lol:

Looks like it's going to be a pretty nice week...

Edit:

NWS

It is worth noting that the long range guidance from the GFS
shows the NAO dipping negative at the end of January...
something that has not happened since the end of November 2019.

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I just cruised the Upstate NY subforum earlier and that place is sad. The only thing I'm really taking from this shitfest is that everyone on the east coast has attended. 

Margusity seems to think a coastal is possible this weekend. PennLive appears to be punting on winter. 

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/01/will-the-polar-vortex-make-an-appearance-in-whats-left-of-winter.html

 

Btw, that article mentions that it's not impossible that March and April, which has been winter lately,  will be cold.

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7 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Hopefully take a look at thinks on Wednesday morning and see how things look. Right now the models are messing with us. :lol:

Looks like it's going to be a pretty nice week...

This is what has been messing with my head now for some time. It has been nice - my wife and I were out on the local river trail yesterday and it was packed. It felt really good to be outside in a light sweatshirt. 

BUT...

If beggars could be choosy I wish it was nice for walking like in...April. Or May. As nice as it was, as fun as it was...I kept thinking about how with each day we're marching through peak climo for wintry weather and well...it isn't exactly wintry. 

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

I just cruised the Upstate NY subforum earlier and that place is sad. The only thing I'm really taking from this shitfest is that everyone on the east coast has attended. 

Margusity seems to think a coastal is possible this weekend. PennLive appears to be punting on winter. 

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/01/will-the-polar-vortex-make-an-appearance-in-whats-left-of-winter.html

 

Btw, that article mentions that it's not impossible that March and April, which has been winter lately,  will be cold.

While I think the chances for us to see snow this weekend is minuscule, it would at least be nice to have SOMETHING to track. Even if delivered the goods to our mountain friends it would be fun to have something ride up the coast...

...on the other hand, if it rained here from a coastal storm taking a perfect track at this time of year I might not find it so entertaining...

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The nice weather is nice, it doesn't really matter when it occurs, but what's messed with my state of mental being these last few years is that winter doesn't act like it should, which only makes me more excited for spring, but then spring comes around and it's three months straight of rain and 48°F, and I'm spending weeks looking at the baseball schedule and texting five other people to try to coordinate a day off that is also a home date to make up for the impending rainout.

Or the time a few years ago I went to Ocean City on Memorial Day and it was 60°F. 

It's weird things like this that make me wonder what exactly is the cause. It's not just a lack of winter, it's become a lack of spring. With a lack of spring comes a lack of severe weather outbreaks, as we have had what? Two bad storm days since 2010-11? It's hard being a weather enthusiast when it's just rainy and windy :lol:

Upstate NY/Eastern NY subforum seem to think 2010-11 was the last good one for them, so it's probably not so bad here.

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2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

To my knowledge he hasn't reveled what he is doing. He did say he isn't moving though.

that sucks...

this doesnt though.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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HM keeps saying he believes the setup for this weekend will be similar to the November 24th setup, which would probably work out for some on here. 

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3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I just cruised the Upstate NY subforum earlier and that place is sad. The only thing I'm really taking from this shitfest is that everyone on the east coast has attended. 

Margusity seems to think a coastal is possible this weekend. PennLive appears to be punting on winter. 

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/01/will-the-polar-vortex-make-an-appearance-in-whats-left-of-winter.html

 

Btw, that article mentions that it's not impossible that March and April, which has been winter lately,  will be cold.

I think the coastal is going to happen but as I posted last night I don't like the pattern alignment and the lesser amount of amplification that's being advertised now with regards to getting whatever magnitude of coastal storm close enough to us. There is some hints of some northern branch energy dropping down enough for perhaps lighter snows behind the exiting coastal and before heights rebound for what looks like a more above average few day period getting into the 1st week of Feb. Something like that might favor the western part of the state though.

I wouldn't write off February, especially after the first week. The long range has been really building a major ridge in the NAO realm as well as finally driving some + heights over the pole (improving AO) and improving the Pac/west coast some. I'm certainly aware of the "always 10-15 days away" theme this winter but the more wholesale change to a colder regime in the east had been also advertised by some of the longer range stuff like the Euro weeklies and CFS as well. We can still flip things around and there's been worse first halves of winter. 2006-2007 was pretty much dead on arrival til about the week of the V-day '07 storm. I think LSV places like York and Lancaster didn't even record measurable snowfall til like the first week of Feb that winter. 

At any rate we have to relax the AO if we're going to get a colder regime that actually sticks for more than a couple days. I think the very positive AO regime that developed at the end of Dec and lasted all this month has had the biggest overall influence on our sensible weather here. We can do okay with snow and cold in this region without the negative NAO but the +AO, especially at the magnitude it had been at, is hard to deal with. The strong PV over the pole locks up the arctic air, making cold air intrusions quick and also really raising the latitude of the northern branch. We haven't had a single clipper this year drop down anywhere near our latitude. I feel it's rearing it's ugly head again this week to a degree with the northern branch not amplifying enough to pick up the southern wave.. although the +EPO is also a detriment keeping things progressive and the source region of air Pacific. That PennLive article actually had a couple decent sources, referencing Judah Cohen at AER. He provides a weekly update and discussion on the state of the polar vortex and the AO HERE. The last discussion was Jan 20th, so an update is probably due today or tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We need that LP to be stronger than that...don't we? I'm thinking we need a deep system to create a favorable dynamic.

I assume Nut(s) is suggesting it is trending but yea that map as depicted is a partly sunny day with highs around 40. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Understood. I wasn't refuting his comment, just saying that as depicted that would not work for us. 

I am having trouble seeing how anything works for the likes of @MAG5035, @Cashtown_Coop and myself.  Pattern just seems so progressive and zonalish that anything is going to stay too far east but you guys over in Lancaster County are really in the game I think. 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We need that LP to be stronger than that...don't we? I'm thinking we need a deep system to create a favorable dynamic.

For it to bomb we'd want the 500 much closer and "diving in".  Verbatim too much space between, but column is cold enough up here as 540's are running through southern Va.  Trough is neutral, so as Bubbs (is that better :P) suggests, its progressive and cant really go nuts. 

IMO this isnt done coming north.  Just look at some of our better looks so far this season, and how north theyve corrected.  Atmospheric memory.

 

 

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After the Icon post I was going to say..."Let the north trend begin...".

Last weekend we needed the south trend that never materialized.  Like throwing darts, maybe eventually we'll be near the bulls-eye??

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I assume Nut(s) is suggesting it is trending but yea that map as depicted is a partly sunny day with highs around 40. 

Yes. I never look at a map at 5 days out thinking “that’s gonna happen”.
I search for trends/continuity, what players are on the field and in what areas. That’s it.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Yes. I never look at a map at 5 days out thinking “that’s gonna happen”.
I search for trends/continuity, what players are on the field and in what areas. That’s it.  

I can guarantee you more than one person in Coastal NC, SC, and N Ga as well as the Panhandle of Florida are taking this GFS verbatim and running with it.  LOL.  Welcome to Georgia...want to pick your own Peaches?  Grab your snow shovel and start making a path this way! 

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Did you guys see Matt is leaving WGAL? He posted in here a time or 2. 

Yeah, he tweeted that he's not moving so my guess is he's leaving journalism. Unsure what kind of private mets jobs there are around here, but I hope (if he wants to) he continues doing what he's so good at. 

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48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I can guarantee you more than one person in Coastal NC, SC, and N Ga as well as the Panhandle of Florida are taking this GFS verbatim and running with it.  LOL.  Welcome to Georgia...want to pick your own Peaches?  Grab your snow shovel and start making a path this way! 

well if they are.....shame on them.  There is not a person on this board that shouldn't know better by now....and if they don't know better....start paying attention. ;)

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19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

well if they are.....shame on them.  There is not a person on this board that shouldn't know better by now....and if they don't know better....start paying attention. ;)

Not often those coastal NC folks see a foot plus on the snow map.

The Euro did like Manu Ginobili and Euro Stepped away from us. 

 

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