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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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The 18z GFS shows a deepening low riding up the east coast next weekend. It strengthens from the 990s in the Carolinas to the 970’s by the time it reaches our latitude & then into the 960’s off of the New England coast.

Verbatim, this run, the snow stays near I-81, but it would take only a small adjustment to get even our eastern locales into the good snow.

I would take my chances with this run.

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2870FA16-A3F1-4029-B45D-715636B5DFAB.png

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I’d like to say how much I appreciate @Blizzard of 93 and his optimism. I don’t mean this to sound negative but in the past you’d post snow maps which we all know we can’t solely trust blindly. But now you post them which is fun but explain how it can come to fruition despite challenges. 

i really enjoy them, thank you!

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11 hours ago, canderson said:

I’d like to say how much I appreciate @Blizzard of 93 and his optimism. I don’t mean this to sound negative but in the past you’d post snow maps which we all know we can’t solely trust blindly. But now you post them which is fun but explain how it can come to fruition despite challenges. 

i really enjoy them, thank you!

Thanks man !

I just really enjoy tracking winter storms & this place has a great group !

Hopefully next weekend we are all shoveling, but lots of time to see how things unfold for the better or worse.

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I think CTP summed up all our options pretty well this coming weekend. Basically a tossup. Let us hope we can get the most favorable outcome for us and perhaps as mentioned below a negative NAO? We can only hope.

There is considerable uncertainty with next weekend`s weather.
The GFS and GEFS have been consistent for the last several runs
with bringing a coastal storm up the East Coast Saturday-
Monday. Model runs have varied significantly in precip type and
location with outcomes ranging from widespread snow to all
rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been more consistent in keeping
the surface low south and/or east of the Commonwealth with
basically no storm impacts whatsoever. The ECMWF instead favors
a deeper low pressure system over Canada, which would bring
prevailing southwesterly winds and dry conditions to the Middle
Atlantic region through the weekend. About all we can do at this
point is mention the possibility of *something* happening next
weekend, and as such, have brought in marginal PoPs to match WPC
guidance and lean toward GFS/GEFS solutions.

It is worth noting that the long range guidance from the GFS
shows the NAO dipping negative at the end of January...
something that has not happened since the end of November 2019.
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1 hour ago, canderson said:

There’s a warmth to the sun today. It sucks!

I have noticed that all together the last two years regardless of time of year.  Assumed it was due to me aging and feeling it differently but it is very obvious when in Florida so I suspect there is also something else adding to it whether climate based or what not.  Seems the sun feels more evident than it used to. 

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The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. 

It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. 

We still have 6 days to try to figure it out.

 

 

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Next weekend is one of those situations where I think it makes sense to look at alternate models since we are talking more about timing than synoptic features...The NoGaps is close to a phase and does throw fairly good precip back this way.  JMA seems to be fairly off shore.  The real stretch is to look at the WW3 for wave action and see where it is predicting a coastal to set up.  Seems a bit off shore but of course its hard to tell beyond it disagreeing with the Euro and having something close.  The Euro is a Sunshine Burger next weekend. 

 

image.png.a07600bec01cecf706835233f99e53da.png

 

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Next weekend is one of those situations where I think it makes sense to look at alternate models since we are talking more about timing than synoptic features...The NoGaps is close to a phase and does throw fairly good precip back this way.  JMA seems to be fairly off shore.  The real stretch is to look at the WW3 for wave action and see where it is predicting a coastal to set up.  Seems a bit off shore but of course its hard to tell beyond it disagreeing with the Euro and having something close.  The Euro is a Sunshine Burger next weekend. 

 

image.png.a07600bec01cecf706835233f99e53da.png

 

You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend.

 

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Today's 12z Euro pretty much kept the northern and southern stream shortwaves separate, while the GFS is more amplified and interacts the two streams.. drawing more of an event toward the Northeast US. On the 18z GFS the interaction does generate an area of lighter snows crossing the state despite a weaker, more progressive coastal that's tracking a bit east of ideal for our area. Neither seem as amplified as a couple days ago when they were running significant lows right up the eastern seaboard. The overall 500mb alignment of the western ridge/downstream trough looks very positively oriented. Thus, I'm not particularly enthused with this becoming a big coastal (or developing into one in time for us) at the moment. With that said...there's definitely plenty of time as we have all week to see how things change, and there isn't much agreement or continuity on the models right now. 

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BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime.  IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb.  

Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east.  NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_40.png

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime.  IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb.  

Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east.  NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_40.png

Great post !

Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying.

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58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great post !

Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying.

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.  

I might have to start calling you Nuts?  Ha. 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.  

I think anyone who says the storm is a lock or a bust 6 days out might be nuts.

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43 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.  

I might have to start calling you Nuts?  Ha. Icon for mid week getting enough even more interesting.

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Send that slug into our cold air gfs.

 

Edit-too progressive 

The GFS did not phase the 2 streams. It was disjointed & brought out the storm in 2 pieces. One piece on Saturday & one on Sunday, unfortunately both go wide right off of the Coast too far south to be a factor.

Let’s see what the Canadian & Euro say.

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