Gosnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I think CTP summed up all our options pretty well this coming weekend. Basically a tossup. Let us hope we can get the most favorable outcome for us and perhaps as mentioned below a negative NAO? We can only hope. There is considerable uncertainty with next weekend`s weather. The GFS and GEFS have been consistent for the last several runs with bringing a coastal storm up the East Coast Saturday- Monday. Model runs have varied significantly in precip type and location with outcomes ranging from widespread snow to all rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been more consistent in keeping the surface low south and/or east of the Commonwealth with basically no storm impacts whatsoever. The ECMWF instead favors a deeper low pressure system over Canada, which would bring prevailing southwesterly winds and dry conditions to the Middle Atlantic region through the weekend. About all we can do at this point is mention the possibility of *something* happening next weekend, and as such, have brought in marginal PoPs to match WPC guidance and lean toward GFS/GEFS solutions. It is worth noting that the long range guidance from the GFS shows the NAO dipping negative at the end of January... something that has not happened since the end of November 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 There’s a warmth to the sun today. It sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: There’s a warmth to the sun today. It sucks! I have noticed that all together the last two years regardless of time of year. Assumed it was due to me aging and feeling it differently but it is very obvious when in Florida so I suspect there is also something else adding to it whether climate based or what not. Seems the sun feels more evident than it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 No phase and not storm on the 12Z Euro...for next weekend. Need some phasing or the southern disturbance is just pushed out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. We still have 6 days to try to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Next weekend is one of those situations where I think it makes sense to look at alternate models since we are talking more about timing than synoptic features...The NoGaps is close to a phase and does throw fairly good precip back this way. JMA seems to be fairly off shore. The real stretch is to look at the WW3 for wave action and see where it is predicting a coastal to set up. Seems a bit off shore but of course its hard to tell beyond it disagreeing with the Euro and having something close. The Euro is a Sunshine Burger next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The 12z EPS still has a storm signal along the east coast next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Next weekend is one of those situations where I think it makes sense to look at alternate models since we are talking more about timing than synoptic features...The NoGaps is close to a phase and does throw fairly good precip back this way. JMA seems to be fairly off shore. The real stretch is to look at the WW3 for wave action and see where it is predicting a coastal to set up. Seems a bit off shore but of course its hard to tell beyond it disagreeing with the Euro and having something close. The Euro is a Sunshine Burger next weekend. You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I’m just rooting for team North America from the 12z runs today that I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 Today's 12z Euro pretty much kept the northern and southern stream shortwaves separate, while the GFS is more amplified and interacts the two streams.. drawing more of an event toward the Northeast US. On the 18z GFS the interaction does generate an area of lighter snows crossing the state despite a weaker, more progressive coastal that's tracking a bit east of ideal for our area. Neither seem as amplified as a couple days ago when they were running significant lows right up the eastern seaboard. The overall 500mb alignment of the western ridge/downstream trough looks very positively oriented. Thus, I'm not particularly enthused with this becoming a big coastal (or developing into one in time for us) at the moment. With that said...there's definitely plenty of time as we have all week to see how things change, and there isn't much agreement or continuity on the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime. IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb. Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east. NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime. IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb. Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east. NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy. Great post ! Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Also, the 18z EPS still has a good storm signal for this weekend at the end of its run at 144 Hours. Let’s see what the 0z runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 It always seems to be a week away unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah not buying into anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post ! Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying. I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help. I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha. I’ve been called WAY worse. Just havin fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha. Why, the weekend chance is far from decided. 6 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help. I think anyone who says the storm is a lock or a bust 6 days out might be nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I’ve been called WAY worse. Just havin fun. We have 2 more months of winter tracking before our warm months hibernation begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 By the way, I’m just having a little fun with these posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I’ve been called WAY worse. Just havin fun. LOL, I am not insulted by my Alma Mater is taking a hit as they hate when people call us Bubbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 43 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help. I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha. Icon for mid week getting enough even more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Send that slug into our cold air gfs. Edit-too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Send that slug into our cold air gfs. Edit-too progressive The GFS did not phase the 2 streams. It was disjointed & brought out the storm in 2 pieces. One piece on Saturday & one on Sunday, unfortunately both go wide right off of the Coast too far south to be a factor. Let’s see what the Canadian & Euro say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Nothing of note in GFS.... seems too many pieces but needed to come together in less than favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Nothing of note in GFS.... seems too many pieces but needed to come together in less than favorable environment. I was curious to see what it did with the 3 day snow for the 5,6,7th on the 18z. Just totally dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I was curious to see what it did with the 3 day snow for the 5,6,7th on the 18z. Just totally dropped. Ops this far out are going to bounce around like a ping pong. Not unexpected IMO. step 1. keep the cold in the east step 2. keep the storms coming along step 3. wait patiently (hardest step) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The overnight EPS & GEFS said to not give up yet in this weekend’s snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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