• Member Statistics

    16,546
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ampongabezo
    Newest Member
    ampongabezo
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

With the 12z GFS track you would be plastered in paste. Maybe a bit tenuous for me, but no way that's mostly a rain storm for you. 

Right? :) 

Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north.  No room for that to trend any where north.    Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East.  Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north.  No room for that to trend any where north.    Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East.  Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us. 

Agreed, and that is why I said if you could take the GFS exactly as depicted...which of course we fully understand will NOT happen that way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

At that time frame it don’t look bad. 

EBCD9E35-E924-4EE9-8CD7-3A646B802800.jpeg

1E872BB2-773C-43EB-BAC2-1C4E057F7C60.jpeg

get that column to collapse a bit and verbatim that's plenty close enough to overcome.

the good new is that while not a flip to fantastic....a new look is looming in the LR and it should be better for our chances.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend.  Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago.   Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada.   Just a mere 500 miles.

image.png.6c9f8f89a7705fcfdda1bd45d06fe271.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend.  Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago.   Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada.   Just a mere 500 miles.

image.png.6c9f8f89a7705fcfdda1bd45d06fe271.png

 

Why we can’t be a excited over day 8 threats like  ....ever lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Why we can’t be a excited over day 8 threats like  ....ever lol.

True but this was a 3-4 day threat.  LOL.  The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

True but this was a 3-4 day threat.  LOL.  The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night.  

Oh no I mean the one for next weekend...this one was within 4 days when it went to pooo lol.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Uhhh....954mb aint gonna happen.  That pressue is 15mb lower than the superstorm's when it was at that same latitude.  Fun to imagine though.

The Euro has a clipper and cold front passage at the same time.  LOL.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend.  Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago.   Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada.   Just a mere 500 miles.

image.png.6c9f8f89a7705fcfdda1bd45d06fe271.png

 

Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend.  Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago.   Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada.   Just a mere 500 miles.

image.png.6c9f8f89a7705fcfdda1bd45d06fe271.png

 

Can’t hit the like button but good post.
No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Can’t hit the like button but good post.
No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal. 

This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale).

 

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO. 

Yep, its been two years of this parade.  It's almost like we need to forecast on a grading scale because its not acceptable to just say we cannot forecast out beyond a few days.

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale).

 

 

looking early on at 18z happy hour kickoff, one can see the effects of the HP up in Canada....it makes it to NE PA and its underwhelming for them.  

pun intended....that WILL cut it :lol:

get it....cut it

ya know cut to friggin SE WISCONSIN.

UGGHHHHHHH

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Maybe we'll watch on the sidelines going forward as a couple of southern sliders bury the Carolinas. Why not?...those good folk have waited years for snow. It's their turn! 

Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone.  

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you, [mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention], so much for that incredible report!!  My memories of the 1960's begin in the mid 60's when I was around 6.  I will always remember the stories my father told me of the winter of '60-'61.  I was only 1, but he took a picture of me sitting on top of the biggest snow mound beside our driveway I've ever seen.  He also did tell me they had to dig tunnels to get around the back yard the snow was so deep.  (This was roughly 15 miles west of EWR.)  I remember how excited I was when a snow day would cancel school.  In our small town the fire department would blow the whistle 6 times at 7:00am and again at 7:30am to announce the closing.  Since the town was only 1 square mile everyone could hear the whistle.  How creative was that?
The one other noteworthy memory I have is from the summer of 1966.  I think that was one of the hottest summers of all time.  It was the end of 2nd grade for me in mid June of 1966.  I was 7.  It was so hot in our building that our teacher just shut off the lights and had us all lay our heads down on our desks and remain quiet.  What a combination of cold and heat during that decade.  The same could be said 11 years later in the summer of 1977 when in July Central Park broke it's all-time high temp record when it hit 106.  Then, remember what happened that following winter of '77-'78.  One of the biggest Miller-B's to strike the northeast that February.  Great memories for sure.  I'll be recalling them over this weekend during our cold rainstorm!
PS>>Hope you or your family member is OK!

You certainly were right about June 1966. It was
>=90. 14 days
>=95. 6 days
>=100. 1 day
Average high 87.7
Average low 61.4
Mean 74.6
Departure 3.1

Having such a huge range in temperature daily, 26.3 vs average of 19 brings to mind dessert airmass and dry dry dry. Turns out we recorded only 0.07” for month. Driest June by 0.51” and3rd driest month ever


. Pro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahhhh.. just re-reading the Jan 22-23, 2016 thread to lift my spirits in these trying times.  What a behemoth.  Can not believe that was 4 years ago already.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.