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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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Just now, pawatch said:

 

And here I thought the GFS has actually done better this winter than last.   Of course I am looking at a Northern Mid-Atlantic view of it vs. large scale like the metrics. 

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

We believe in inclusion of all colors and bands for those who want to those who want not.

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

That Lancaster county gradient is hilarious. 

That used to be the Schuylkill County gradient a few years back. Quite a few storms have given Allentown 12+ and Tamaqua 1-4...lol

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34 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This storm still has my interest....even being in Lancaster County.

I would be giddy if I was in State College.


.

Our hope lies on the tail end...sort of like what happened on 12/25/2002.

I think you brought that up earlier...:)

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS provided a little uptick in snow amounts for the LSV. 

Also still some different possibilities with the placement & track of the secondary.

AA9B325C-41C9-4484-846A-49794300BEA1.png

AB676AD6-89FD-4D64-AEC7-B0738292E7FC.png

DB059F0D-F4E3-434B-84B0-75FBD20A521F.png

2E656DDD-CA04-4837-9CA2-490D9534577C.png

I'm going to float on the lake with that sharp cutoff from heavy to not heavy stuff.

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

This storm still has my interest....even being in Lancaster County.

I would be giddy if I was in State College.


.

I don’t know about giddy. Hopeful-sure. Lots can still go wrong. The late transfer issue is the biggest risk. It can still pretty easily go to a NE PA and upstate NY special. 

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Well giddy or not, this threat is now inside D4 and the 2-3 straight days of that stripe of 6"+ in pretty much the same section of C-PA on the Euro EPS has my attention.  

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Well giddy or not, this threat is now inside D4 and the 2-3 straight days of that stripe of 6"+ in pretty much the same section of C-PA on the Euro EPS has my attention.  

Yes, same here with the EPS for several runs showing 3 inches of snow around the Harrisburg area.

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32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can’t wait until we extrapolate the end of the NAM run again in a few minutes...

I won’t....I promise. 
 

I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread. 
 

:wacko:

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I won’t....I promise. 
 

I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread. 
 

:wacko:

I was just having a little fun !

This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was just having a little fun !

This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.

Yeah I know.
Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. 
 

Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? 

Dont worry... I don’t like it either. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I know.
Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. 
 

Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? 

Dont worry... I don’t like it either. 

It's good to be realistic though. :)

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Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

Yeah if that look holds it’s a nice weekend to head north. GFS has been pretty consistent with LP just SE of us. 
actually rolling back through the last couple runs I’d say it looks better the last few. WSPT is sittin perty for this one. 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned.

It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game.

This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS.

In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx

We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!

 

5D106AA9-6164-4AD5-AE99-050AE919207D.png

A6372C62-91F6-4C19-AD11-B9C0E7E501E5.png

4F069620-AB1B-4E91-A338-1D6FB290BE6E.png

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Thanks for the blow-up map, @Blizzard of 93.  There's no way the model will hit the exact amounts with perfection 3 1/2 days out.  Talk about a gradient in my county...Newburg gets 12" while New Cumberland gets 1" !!!  I think I've been around the 4" mark now for several runs, including this one.  This one could be a real nail-biter.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned.

It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game.

This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS.

In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx

We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!

 

5D106AA9-6164-4AD5-AE99-050AE919207D.png

A6372C62-91F6-4C19-AD11-B9C0E7E501E5.png

4F069620-AB1B-4E91-A338-1D6FB290BE6E.png

Yeah...lock that run in please.

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6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol jm1220 must still be traumatized by true central pa...pops in often to remind us what will go wrong and he’s usually right.

Like I said I’m hopeful lol. So far so good for a nice event for you guys at least. I just learned to believe it when I see it. I lived through many false alarms there haha.

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like I said I’m hopeful lol. So far so good for a nice event for you guys at least. I just learned to believe it when I see it. I lived through many false alarms there haha.

Many is an understatement...

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