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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Talk about durable...my temp overnight rose to 40 degrees and yet not even 0.01" of the frozen mixture in my rain gauge melted.  Now the temp is back down to 35.  I need the sun to come out before we drop below freezing to get some melting action going...lol.

I melted down 0.52” this morn.   Not bad 

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We have had on & off flurries here this morning.

It looks like winter outside with the snow/sleet cover & flurries.

Just shoveled/scraped neighbors and its about to turn to concrete.  Glad i went out when i did.  With early to mid week temps, those that got it should hold it for a few days of wintery appeal. Going to be a glacier tonight.

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just shoveled/scraped neighbors and its about to turn to concrete.  Glad i went out when i did.  With early to mid week temps, those that got it should hold it for a few days of wintery appeal. Going to be a glacier tonight.

 

Well look at you being all neighborly...:)

See some flakes flying. Wish I had a little more white on the ground to get the full wintry vibe going. 

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38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well look at you being all neighborly...:)

See some flakes flying. Wish I had a little more white on the ground to get the full wintry vibe going. 

That how i roll.  I'm the guy they all like to see out because during decent events, my big snowblower is everyones best friend (not me of course...)

In a good storm, I usually come home w/ a buzz due to them all knowing i "work" for beer(s).:beer:

Yeah, I wish we could have gotten a bit more white, but as you know, the white look diminished as the sleety looks took over.  That verified for sure.  Still nice and white around here, so I'm ok w/ it, but sounds like some got a bit more jipped than hoped.  Oh well onto the next one.

 

 

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You’d almost think it was January or something today...

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Getting fluff bombed With some LES/upslope currently and have an inch or so new already. Or you know, more snow than I got from the actual storm yesterday. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Just shoveled/scraped neighbors and its about to turn to concrete.  Glad i went out when i did.  With early to mid week temps, those that got it should hold it for a few days of wintery appeal. Going to be a glacier tonight.

 

I can confirm it is quite the glacier as it was rock solid when I woke up early this morning. Some of the back roads refroze too. Pretty much if you didn't clear off your driveway/sidewalk last night your gonna have a bad day doing it today. At least this stuff should take a lakes cutter or two haha  

 

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ohhhhhhhh Canada!!!

12z Canadian looks very good ehhhh ?!?!

Definitely going to have to hope for a timely secondary or straight coastal low solution with the cold relaxing late in the week now. Canadian has it (secondary) and the GFS is to the lakes with no secondary. Way more uncertainty than yesterday's event had at this range. This has some potential, but it looks like we might have to rely on a more dynamic coastal low type outcome to ensure enough cold for any kind of widespread snows in the area. A weak secondary with a parent low up the Ohio Valley into the lakes might not be enough given the said late week moderation in temps. At least we're at the bottom of the curve in terms of climo. 

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The 12z Euro had a great shift towards developing a coastal storm next weekend !

The Ohio Valley low gives way to a secondary low that develops & slowly moves off of the DelMarVa peninsula. 

We are very much in the game for next weekend. Today, things took a great step in the right direction & we are only 5 to 6 days out.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro had a great shift towards developing a coastal storm next weekend !

The Ohio Valley low gives way to a secondary low that develops & slowly moves off of the DelMarVa peninsula. 

We are very much in the game for next weekend. Today, things took a great step in the right direction & we are only 5 to 6 days out.

 

 

 

 

This is very good news.  Yesterday we were seeing 65 yard punts so if we can find something as this cold snap ends it will be a big bonus.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is very good news.  Yesterday we were seeing 65 yard punts so if we can find something as this cold snap ends it will be a big bonus.

The Euro & Canadian had support for next weekend’s potential coastal from the EPS, UKMET & even the JMA at 12z.

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45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro & Canadian had support for next weekend’s potential coastal from the EPS, UKMET & even the JMA at 12z.

 

 

 

To personally show you my appreciation if my backyard gets 2" or more of snow between Friday the 24th and Monday the 27th I will name this Storm The Blizzard of 93 Storm.  And to show you I keep with those names I still call last November the @Eskimo Joe Storm as he was on here alerting everyone to it when the models did not want to hear it.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

To personally show you my appreciation if my backyard gets 2" or more of snow between Friday the 24th and Monday the 27th I will name this Storm The Blizzard of 93 Storm.  And to show you I keep with those names I still call last November the @Eskimo Joe Storm as he was on here alerting everyone to it when the models did not want to hear it.

 

 

Thanks for the potential honor good sir !

I think that we have a chance. This one might be tough for the I-95 folks, but back here in the Susquehanna Valley & towards the I-81 corridor, will have more potential to get some snow from this storm. If the storm develops & moves slowly off of the DelMarVa, we could really be in business.

Hopefully after 0z runs tonight, we will still be trending the right way !

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks for the potential honor good sir !

I think that we have a chance. This one might be tough for the I-95 folks, but back here in the Susquehanna Valley & towards the I-81 corridor, will have more potential to get some snow from this storm. If the storm develops & moves slowly off of the DelMarVa, we could really be in business.

Hopefully after 0z runs tonight, we will still be trending the right way !

There's a lot that I don't like about this situation at all...BUT we got snow a couple of weeks ago from a wretched setup, so who am I to discount this? 

There is a path to victory here. There's just a lot of detours in the road. (Especially east and south of the mountains)

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro & Canadian had support for next weekend’s potential coastal from the EPS, UKMET & even the JMA at 12z.

fwiw the18z gfs looks like it’s trying to bring LP further east and if one looks at last few runs its definitely something to watch.
IF this finds a way to work it will rattle the brains of many. Gotta hope for antecedent cold to hold (much like last event.). Only diff is that this one with exception of GFS starts off with better track. 

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So, that was pretty fun to clean up last night and today. Had to use a metal shovel in some places after a little calcium to help work it. Salt worked really good while the sun was out today. We had anywhere from about 1.5" of snow/sleet right off of wertzille road in Enola, to right around 1" combo in camp hill by the hospital and about the same in Mechanicsburg off 114, near Bowmansdale. Also about 1.5" at Trindle road and Sporting Hill road area. 

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19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

fwiw the18z gfs looks like it’s trying to bring LP further east and if one looks at last few runs its definitely something to watch.
IF this finds a way to work it will rattle the brains of many. Gotta hope for antecedent cold to hold (much like last event.). Only diff is that this one with exception of GFS starts off with better track. 

It'll certainly rattle the brains of my group that postponed their bus trip to Hollywood Casino. They were supposed to go this weekend, but decided not to because of the snow potential. They now want to go next weekend...lol

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Just now, Voyager said:

It'll certainly rattle the brains of my group that postponed their bus trip to Hollywood Casino. They were supposed to go this weekend, but decided not to because of the snow potential. They now want to go next weekend...lol

That would be funny as sh!t. 

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Goof is traveling faster and further south at 0z.  Ups the stakes.

Yes, good change in the GFS. It brings snow to just south of I-80 in eastern PA.

I would like to see a compromise solution  between the 12z Euro & the 0z GFS.

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Starting to like the look of this weekend storm.


.

Man, if we only had a supply of fresh arctic air in place...

14 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Bring this puppy home Bliz

The dude is relentless. I'm convinced he's going to will it to snow in July some year. 

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Wow 6z GFS was a flush hit for Central and eastern PA. The 0z Euro was there too, but was warmer aloft and much more marginal, especially in the LSV despite having a nice 850mb low track passing underneath PA. Focus of accumulating snow was in the central third of the state (Euro control similar). GFS 850mb low was a tad further north but had colder 850 air overall and it was enough to make it a primarily snow event for pretty much the whole subforum. 

Definitely an interesting setup. The 500mb pattern straight up is definitely doable, with a sprawling area of anomalously high heights residing over Canada and the storm track undercutting that. In a winter that has featured a stupid amount of cutting storms and a northern branch that has stayed well above PA for the most part (remember clippers?)... I guess that's a way to finally try to force one underneath us. The problem though is the cold air in place now gets moderated this week and the true arctic air is bottled up in it's region of origin courtesy of low heights over the pole (continued +AO) as well as the aforementioned Canadian ridging, which it's positioning is progged to cover a large portion of that country.. cutting off the source region for any fresh cold.

What is on our side with this setup is climo. That January 25ish timeframe is basically the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year so we can definitely do marginal. Present this type of thing in late November/early December and it's probably raining for the most part. In late January with a progged track and evolution like the Euro/GFS, you would certainly have to favor snow in at least the central counties and potentially the LSV with a dynamic enough system. It's got to stay underneath us though, or transfer to the coast underneath us. Or else it's either going to rain and/or we're going to just barely miss out on a potentially sizable snowstorm like we did at the beginning of December. 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow 6z GFS was a flush hit for Central and eastern PA. The 0z Euro was there too, but was warmer aloft and much more marginal, especially in the LSV despite having a nice 850mb low track passing underneath PA. Focus of accumulating snow was in the central third of the state (Euro control similar). GFS 850mb low was a tad further north but had colder 850 air overall and it was enough to make it a primarily snow event for pretty much the whole subforum. 

Definitely an interesting setup. The 500mb pattern straight up is definitely doable, with a sprawling area of anomalously high heights residing over Canada and the storm track undercutting that. In a winter that has featured a stupid amount of cutting storms and a northern branch that has stayed well above PA for the most part (remember clippers?)... I guess that's a way to finally try to force one underneath us. The problem though is the cold air in place now gets moderated this week and the true arctic air is bottled up in it's region of origin courtesy of low heights over the pole (continued +AO) as well as the aforementioned Canadian ridging, which it's positioning is progged to cover a large portion of that country.. cutting off the source region for any fresh cold.

What is on our side with this setup is climo. That January 25ish timeframe is basically the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year so we can definitely do marginal. Present this type of thing in late November/early December and it's probably raining for the most part. In late January with a progged track and evolution like the Euro/GFS, you would certainly have to favor snow in at least the central counties and potentially the LSV with a dynamic enough system. It's got to stay underneath us though, or transfer to the coast underneath us. Or else it's either going to rain and/or we're going to just barely miss out on a potentially sizable snowstorm like we did at the beginning of December. 

Great post & excellent points.

Prime time climo can get this done with marginal temps if we get the right track.

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