Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Happens every year so let’s just embrace it and get shovels ready for later next week and beyond. starting to think our turnaround is growing momentum so hang in there gang. Post more later. Off to office The 6z GFS brings the pattern change by next Thursday. Then it has a few winter storm chances for the following week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS brings the pattern change by next Thursday. Then it has a few winter storm chances for the following week. I'll not post maps as most know how/where to get them, but I'll say that if one parses over the 500's and 2m temp anomalies starting next Thursday/Friday and beyond, you will find the keys to the party wagon. GEPS/Euro still in better agreement. GEFS still diverges a bit (but still has opps for fun looks notably better at 500). Aleutian/Scandy ridges are looking good and you can see the cold press south into the conus as a result. This is a continuation of the last few days and i say that because its growing enough legs to be considered a real change. GFS Op at 6z as Blizz alluded to is borderline NSFW (compared to what we've been looking at), as it shows a lot of opportunities with several under us into the Carolinas. At this juncture that is just fine, as the takeaway is that the boundary is about to become favorable for the east coast, and cutters wont rule the day during this time. Blending the Ops and Ens, I'm rather excited to see what things look like next week. Rest up Blizz..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm calling for a Super Bowl Storm now 6+" Mark it on yo calendars bitches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, sauss06 said: I'm calling for a Super Bowl now Storm, 6+" Mark it on yo calendars bitches Having a snowstorm and watching the Ravens win on the same day would be a true dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said: SPC expanded thunderstorm coverage up to NY for Saturday. Looks like the South is in for a multiple day January Outbreak . Hang in there weather nerds its going to happen soon . If old man winter doesn't start dropping bombs on us in the next 15 days I am going to post a picture of my bare naked ass in the Philly forum and get band forever . At least as Flatheadsickness. My family in northeast Texas is in the direct crosshairs tomorrow. An incredibly ominous setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: That won't get your banned in Philly. Ralph Wiggum will take your pic and explain how it suggests a flip in the pattern in the 11-15 day range. That is some funny stuff right there!... And true... I've informed my wife that she's going to be a weather widow once again by later next week. It's coming... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is some funny stuff right there!... And true... I've informed my wife that she's going to be a weather widow once again by later next week. It's coming... Just to be clear, I'm not saying we are on the right side of the snow fence for EVERYTHING beyond D7, but if the pattern being advertised is real, the window of opportunity will be open much more than it has been for some time. If we set real/fair expatiations to win some lose some....we should be fine. We will be trackin for sure. I think the battlezone/boundary would vacillate in our general region, and in these types of deals, latitude is a big help. This is evident on the 500 panels, as a more zonal flow gets established w/ AO trending neutral and cold more readily available for us. One can see the wholesale shift in the regime. Something needed to change, and it appears to be doing so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just to be clear, I'm not saying we are on the right side of the snow fence for EVERYTHING beyond D7, but if the pattern being advertised is real, the window of opportunity will be open much more than it has been for some time. If we set real/fair expatiations to win some lose some....we should be fine. We will be trackin for sure. I think the battlezone/boundary would vacillate in our general region, and in these types of deals, latitude is a big help. This is evident on the 500 panels, as a more zonal flow gets established w/ AO trending neutral and cold more readily available for us. One can see the wholesale shift in the regime. Something needed to change, and it appears to be doing so. Nut...great post! This is how I see it. We just got snow in a complete sh!t pattern. We had a small window to get it done. Thankfully it worked. Now we look to be headed for a pattern with better opportunities for snow. We are at a much better place than a week ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, daxx said: Nut...great post! This is how I see it. We just got snow in a complete sh!t pattern. We had a small window to get it done. Thankfully it worked. Now we look to be headed for a pattern with better opportunities for snow. We are at a much better place than a week ago. Some of the analog years to the pattern highlighted by @pasnownut "tellies"...1994, 2014 has a guy like me salivating...snow followed by a crap ton of ice to encase it in. My favorite storms. Let's do this! '94 I had continuous snow cover for over 2 freaking months! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, daxx said: Nut...great post! This is how I see it. We just got snow in a complete sh!t pattern. We had a small window to get it done. Thankfully it worked. Now we look to be headed for a pattern with better opportunities for snow. We are at a much better place than a week ago. I'm glad we see it the same. Yeah, we sure optimized a crack in the window earlier this week. No doubt and gotta love it when that happens. IF the recent updates on the MJO are correct/believable, and you roll forward the progression....it too would be another feather in our snow cap. Mersky in the MA forum rather boldy called this a couple days ago, and looking from the 10,000 ft view, one can see the logic in it. 7/8/1 is money phases for us. Concern i have w/ it, is that recent history suggests high amplitude MJO phases and progression in/out can be tricky. I'm sure MJO is factored into LR modelling, so what we see is a result of said indices factoring in, so in summary....proceed w/ caution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Some of the analog years to the pattern highlighted by @pasnownut "tellies"...1994, 2014 has a guy like me salivating...snow followed by a crap ton of ice to encase it in. My favorite storms. Let's do this! '94 I had continuous snow cover for over 2 freaking months! Yeah, I've seen them being thrown around.... its hard not to want to buy in, but even if a portion of those to analog years verify, we'd be dancing in the streets.....clothing optional. Analog years are a HUGE resource, but as we all know....so so many pieces of the puzzle to factor in, and recent questions of their accuracy due to changing climate have some merit (in some minds anyway). Surely the more pieces we have in our favor over the coming days....the better. Continuity is what one needs to be looking for during the next few days. I"m going to be up north for a couple days, so I'll be looking from afar. Don't let me down guys....bring this change to our doorstep while I'm away. K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Some of the analog years to the pattern highlighted by @pasnownut "tellies"...1994, 2014 has a guy like me salivating...snow followed by a crap ton of ice to encase it in. My favorite storms. Let's do this! '94 I had continuous snow cover for over 2 freaking months! The Christmas night snow squall and what followed for months after that was amazing. Hands down the best glacier I ever had. I still have the newspaper articles of the record cold. If only!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I've seen them being thrown around.... its hard not to want to buy in, but even if a portion of those to analog years verify, we'd be dancing in the streets.....clothing optional. Analog years are a HUGE resource, but as we all know....so so many pieces of the puzzle to factor in, and recent questions of their accuracy due to changing climate have some merit (in some minds anyway). Surely the more pieces we have in our favor over the coming days....the better. Continuity is what one needs to be looking for during the next few days. I"m going to be up north for a couple days, so I'll be looking from afar. Don't let me down guys....bring this change to our doorstep while I'm away. K? Tug Hill or upstate pa? Hopefully you get some good riding in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Tug Hill or upstate pa? Hopefully you get some good riding in. Cabin. Gaines Pa (15 miles W of Wellsboro). No sledding (although reports of folks riding - and few friend on the way to Potter to do so today/tomorrow, before we lose it all.....again). Late season muzzleloader is one of my favorite times to be afield....I dig primitive stuff, and love the fresh air of winter. Have a couple guys/my dad and my son coming up this and next weekend to do the same. Going to let the trees talk to me and take in the beauty of our northwoods. Hoping to be back up w/ sleds in next couple weeks though. I did Tug for many years prior to purchasing the cabin, but have spent my extra $$ making our cabin a cozy lodge, so bye bye Tug....but getting closer to complete so maybe Tug will be back in my future. f you love snow/snowmobiling, one needs to go up during a Lake Effect outbreak. It is C R A Z Y sh!t to witness. When its snowing too hard and snow is too deep to see trails/signs.....it is just AWESOME!! Ya'll need to add it to Snow Weenie Bucket list. I've sledded in 11'...yes....11' of powder up there. You couldn't stop sled, or it would sink (that really really sucks btw). Step off and sink to your chest. Yup....thats the good stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Cabin. Gaines Pa (15 miles W of Wellsboro). No sledding (although reports of folks riding - and few friend on the way to Potter to do so today/tomorrow, before we lose it all.....again). Late season muzzleloader is one of my favorite times to be afield....I dig primitive stuff, and love the fresh air of winter. Have a couple guys/my dad and my son coming up this and next weekend to do the same. Going to let the trees talk to me and take in the beauty of our northwoods. Hoping to be back up w/ sleds in next couple weeks though. I did Tug for many years prior to purchasing the cabin, but have spent my extra $$ making our cabin a cozy lodge, so bye bye Tug....but getting closer to complete so maybe Tug will be back in my future. f you love snow/snowmobiling, one needs to go up during a Lake Effect outbreak. It is C R A Z Y sh!t to witness. When its snowing too hard and snow is too deep to see trails/signs.....it is just AWESOME!! Ya'll need to add it to Snow Weenie Bucket list. I've sledded in 11'...yes....11' of powder up there. You couldn't stop sled, or it would sink (that really really sucks btw). Step off and sink to your chest. Yup....thats the good stuff. I've been staying on the Tug Hill for vacations for 15 years now. We finally found a nice cabin 5 miles south of Worth on airbnb. The place is truly heaven for snow weenies. The wife and I are headed up there February 3 for a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Having a snowstorm and watching the Ravens win on the same day would be a true dream Ewwwwww some of you guys have to be Steelers fans and back me on this...right? Lol. Snow part is awesome though. KC or bust lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Ewwwwww some of you guys have to be Steelers fans and back me on this...right? Lol. Snow part is awesome though. KC or bust lol. eagles out so.... x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: eagles out so.... x2 Lol won't mention my fav team but you guys won your super bowl against them so shouldn't be real hard feelings haha. I actually don't mind and even pull for Eagles and Steelers if my teams out...the Ravens I just have never liked...all the way back to 90s early 2000s when 10 year old me was bopping around in a Bledsoe jersey lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Ewwwwww some of you guys have to be Steelers fans and back me on this...right? Lol. Snow part is awesome though. KC or bust lol. As a Steelers fan, i'd never root for the Ravens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Ewwwwww some of you guys have to be Steelers fans and back me on this...right? Lol. Snow part is awesome though. KC or bust lol. How 'bout them Cowboys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Cabin. Gaines Pa (15 miles W of Wellsboro). No sledding (although reports of folks riding - and few friend on the way to Potter to do so today/tomorrow, before we lose it all.....again). Late season muzzleloader is one of my favorite times to be afield....I dig primitive stuff, and love the fresh air of winter. Have a couple guys/my dad and my son coming up this and next weekend to do the same. Going to let the trees talk to me and take in the beauty of our northwoods. Hoping to be back up w/ sleds in next couple weeks though. I did Tug for many years prior to purchasing the cabin, but have spent my extra $$ making our cabin a cozy lodge, so bye bye Tug....but getting closer to complete so maybe Tug will be back in my future. f you love snow/snowmobiling, one needs to go up during a Lake Effect outbreak. It is C R A Z Y sh!t to witness. When its snowing too hard and snow is too deep to see trails/signs.....it is just AWESOME!! Ya'll need to add it to Snow Weenie Bucket list. I've sledded in 11'...yes....11' of powder up there. You couldn't stop sled, or it would sink (that really really sucks btw). Step off and sink to your chest. Yup....thats the good stuff. 3 hours ago, daxx said: I've been staying on the Tug Hill for vacations for 15 years now. We finally found a nice cabin 5 miles south of Worth on airbnb. The place is truly heaven for snow weenies. The wife and I are headed up there February 3 for a week. The Tug is going to get 2 to 3 inches of RAIN this weekend. Torture. The weather the past couple of winters has been really bad for the local economy. Worth is a FANTASTIC location for snow fall and snow retention. Even in the midst of this crappy pattern they have over a foot on the ground. Other parts of the Tug don't even compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The Tug is going to get 2 to 3 inches of RAIN this weekend. Torture. The weather the past couple of winters has been really bad for the local economy. Worth is a FANTASTIC location for snow fall and snow retention. Even in the midst of this crappy pattern they have over a foot on the ground. Other parts of the Tug don't even compare. I really need to get up there...more to the point, I need @daxx to find a reason to take me instead of his wife. I would give anything to watch it snow 5"/hour and get buried up to my waist... "the met from Millersville" is fully on board with a major pattern change beginning Jan. 18th with "snow likely between 1/18 and 1/24." 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I really need to get up there...more to the point, I need @daxx to find a reason to take me instead of his wife. I would give anything to watch it snow 5"/hour and get buried up to my waist... "the met from Millersville" is fully on board with a major pattern change beginning Jan. 18th with "snow likely between 1/18 and 1/24." I would gladly take a trip up there with you. Heck I would plan a trip with all of you guys in this sub. The cabin sleeps over 10 people. It is an experience you will never forget. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The Tug is going to get 2 to 3 inches of RAIN this weekend. Torture. The weather the past couple of winters has been really bad for the local economy. Worth is a FANTASTIC location for snow fall and snow retention. Even in the midst of this crappy pattern they have over a foot on the ground. Other parts of the Tug don't even compare. Montague/Brantingham is where i stayed. I do miss it up there. LIve feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, daxx said: I would gladly take a trip up there with you. Heck I would plan a trip with all of you guys in this sub. The cabin sleeps over 10 people. It is an experience you will never forget. Dont offer it 2x bud. I'll bring sleds for some group fun. I even have a pull behind sled for snowmobiles. I so could see Sauss sittin in it layin back w/ a MHL (miller hi life) in hand as we chug along...(kidding of course-sorta). Just gotta figure out how to get the other 8 guys onto 2 snowmobiles......hmmmmm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: How 'bout them Cowboys. Lol tbh if you're a cowboys fan I'd root for them against the Ravens as well! Ravens, Jets, Buffalo, Miami and San Fran I dislike...some make sense some I just dislike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 35 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol tbh if you're a cowboys fan I'd root for them against the Ravens as well! Ravens, Jets, Buffalo, Miami and San Fran I dislike...some make sense some I just dislike. Its hard being a Cowboys fan these days. The glory years are long gone. Watching the Cowboys is sort of like using the Canadian model to forecast weather. You think they can win/its going to snow every week but something always happens to end up making the fans/model readers look like fools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, canderson said: My family in northeast Texas is in the direct crosshairs tomorrow. An incredibly ominous setup. Its looking to be more straight line QLCS type than tornado event at this point but It looks likes northeast Texas gets the earlier storms and a bit more cellular activity than points east. Its probably nothing a Texan cant handle or hasn't seen a few times in there lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Its hard being a Cowboys fan these days. The glory years are long gone. Watching the Cowboys is sort of like using the Canadian model to forecast weather. You think they can win/its going to snow every week but something always happens to end up making the fans/model readers look like fools. I respect the history much like I do with the Steelers. McCarthy is a start and I truly believe in the talents of Zeke and Dak. Hang in there, it's going to get better... I've been blessed with Pats but it's over and it was bound to be. And your college bball team has a hell of a coach and will be tough out for every team in tournament for forseeable future. Lol I'm a Michigan fan hoping Juwan can even be half as good as Beilein. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 My 14 year old son name is Dallas . He is very proud of his name and loves his Cowboys and football . His Cowboy loving mother Named him . He tells me its a though name to have at the moment as a 14 year old Quarterback . He also thinks better days are ahead for his team. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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