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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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Winter 2019-2020 became the 7th winter on record that saw Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 12. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is also only the 3rd winter on record to receive less than 1" seasonal snowfall through February 12. The others were 1972-73 (0.0") and 1997-98 (0.7").

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Northern tier of PA is normal to above in snowfall interestingly enough. Only a 100 miles from a decent enough winter.

 

 

 

Yup seems like the corridor from Johnstown thru Williamsport on northeast of there have been in a good spot this year

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0.23" of rain since yesterday with today being our 4th straight day with measurable rain total over those days is 1.10"  month to date at 2.22" and YTD 6.13" vs normal through today of 5.17". Normal snow for the season to date through today is 24.0" - snow so far this season just 5.8" just 24% of normal. If we are finished with snow this season this will be the 3rd least snow ever recorded in Chester County since 1894. Behind only 1972-3 - with no snow and 1949-50 with just 2.4" for snow less bragging rights!

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The first Robin red breast of the season has shown up this morning. I'm out...see y'all for severe/hurricane season!

Ralph, as a defining descriptive moment to this cold season and it’s snow totals you might as well insert the word bare. As always ......

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On 2/13/2020 at 5:13 AM, ChasingFlakes said:

I had some sleet driving out of philly at 7pm last night.  It was 46F too.

My did who lives in Delco reported some sleet on Wednesday.  We just had some light rain.  Ended up with 0.91" for the 2/10 - 2/13 event.

Currently am at 32 and overcast with a broken ceiling and there be flakes! :snowwindow:

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Winter 2019-2020 is just the 7th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall.

Below is a chart that illustrates mean and +/- 3 sigma cumulative snowfall amounts based on the 0.3" that has fallen to date for those six cases. The 3 sigma upper limit based on those 6 cases is 11.3". Statistically, there would be a 1-in-741 chance that this value would be reached or exceeded.

PHL02142020.jpg

*-The - sigma value has been constrained to that it cannot fall below the 0.3" seasonal snowfall to date. That value would imply no measurable snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-2020.

 

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1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

I dipped below freezing and am now sitting at 29F. This is a top 5 event of the winter so far.

Yep, 29F on my cell as well.

Yeah, it's actually exciting w/the cold and some wind. More clouds than expected....certainly not sunny.

If we could just eek out one 3-6"/4-8" storm I'll be happy. I feel like it's a long Fall season and Winter hasn't begun but in reality Spring is right around the corner.... 

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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yep, 29F on my cell as well.

Yeah, it's actually exciting w/the cold and some wind. More clouds than expected....certainly not sunny.

If we could just eek out one 3-6"/4-8" storm I'll be happy. I feel like it's a long Fall season and Winter hasn't begun but in reality Spring is right around the corner.... 

Actually recorded .10" snow with that band this morning. I'll add it to the list of <1" events this season.

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Actually recorded .10" snow with that band this morning. I'll add it to the list of <1" events this season.

Yeah I saw that band moving over your area....missed me by < 10 miles.

Question for you Steve. What is the relationship for this summer (temp wise) following a blowtorch winter? If any? I'd gladly punt this winter for a cooler than normal Summer. Add numerous T-Storms and I'm all in.  

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7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah I saw that band moving over your area....missed me by < 10 miles.

Question for you Steve. What is the relationship for this summer (temp wise) following a blowtorch winter? If any? I'd gladly punt this winter for a cooler than normal Summer. Add numerous T-Storms and I'm all in.  

Couldnt tell you tbh. That is @donsutherland1 territory.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Couldnt tell you tbh. That is @donsutherland1 territory.

No problem. That's funny though..."donsutherland1 territory".

He's been posting in this thread lately which is great and informative. He may see my question and post. If not I may hit him up...  

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4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

No problem. That's funny though..."donsutherland1 territory".

He's been posting in this thread lately which is great and informative. He may see my question and post. If not I may hit him up...  

I tagged him so he probably already saw it and if I know him is already researching stats.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Couldnt tell you tbh. That is @donsutherland1 territory.

A very warm winter has had a higher frequency of warm summers in Philadelphia. Based on data from winters 1873-74 to the 2018-19, the historic summer average temperature was 74.9°.

Warm summers were as follows:

Above the historic mean: 45%
1° or more above the historic mean: 25%
2° or more above the historic mean: 12%

In the 19 cases where the December-February mean temperature was 38.0° or above (2019-20 was averaging 39.6° through 2/13), the mean summer temperature was 76.1°.

Warm summers were as follows:

Above the historic mean: 79% (1.8X the historic frequency)
1° or more above the historic mean: 53% (2.1X the historic frequency)
2° or more above the historic mean: 32% (2.6X the historic mean and more frequent than the historic figure for 1° or more above the historic mean)

All said, if the above data is representative, summer 2020 will likely be warmer and possibly much warmer than normal. The evolution of ENSO will have an important impact.

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^ Thanks Don. Not the news I wanted hear though. Hopefully we go against the odds and not have a long hot summer. It would only be fair after our current disappointing winter.

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39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

^ Thanks Don. Not the news I wanted hear though. Hopefully we go against the odds and not have a long hot summer. It would only be fair after our current disappointing winter.

Ah, an empathic and fair weather god. I like the concept. I think I've done a snow dance or two in my life.

Or alternately, the idea of things balancing out is still valid. I believe strongly that we will see snow again, maybe even 6" of snow during met winter! Soon, but not yet.

There's also the wtf factor (lol).

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23 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Ah, an empathic and fair weather god. I like the concept. I think I've done a snow dance or two in my life.

Or alternately, the idea of things balancing out is still valid. I believe strongly that we will see snow again, maybe even 6" of snow during met winter! Soon, but not yet.

There's also the wtf factor (lol).

I have a bad feeling we'll get shutout in snow dept and have a torch of a summer. If that's the case mother nature REALLY owes a banner winter season next year...

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

I have a bad feeling we'll get shutout in snow dept and have a torch of a summer. If that's the case mother nature REALLY owes a banner winter season next year...

Lol...yeah I thought we'd get 2" at some point between February and March, but maybe not. 

Not looking forward to a hot summer, but we might be "due", I mean like extended periods in mid 90s and higher, with humidity of course. Hopefully not! 

One of these years we'll have some snow and it will be awesome. A 2013 - 2014 redux would be nice....even 1/2 of that.

You know it's bad when the idea of grading the winter doesn't even come up, lol.

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39 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol...yeah I thought we'd get 2" at some point between February and March, but maybe not. 

Not looking forward to a hot summer, but we might be "due", I mean like extended periods in mid 90s and higher, with humidity of course. Hopefully not! 

One of these years we'll have some snow and it will be awesome. A 2013 - 2014 redux would be nice....even 1/2 of that.

You know it's bad when the idea of grading the winter doesn't even come up, lol.

No way around it...it's a solid F to this point. (way above avg temps/way below avg snowfall) At least w/a potential HHH summer there's a good chance of severe weather which is fun to track.  

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Significant 90's and some 100's may help sterilize that pesky corona virus

Tonight's mid teens will help kill off the early onset bugs too

So below 10F now forecast where did the extra cold come from

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Significant 90's and some 100's may help sterilize that pesky corona virus

Tonight's mid teens will help kill off the early onset bugs too

So below 10F now forecast where did the extra cold come from

 

 

 

Don't know but I noticed the temps tanking in the early evening (more than I expected) and I'm at 15F at 11:50pm. Thinking I'll hit around 11-12F or so...

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Don't know but I noticed the temps tanking in the early evening (more than I expected) and I'm at 15F at 11:50pm. Thinking I'll hit around 11-12F or so...

Down to 12F at 2am...

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