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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

I’m not sure what you expected out of this storm?  I guess some of the model snowfall forecasts were in the 6 inch range but my experience is that those amounts are not to be taken verbatim.  I think most local Mets nailed this forecast.  The 3 inches here met my expectations. Now let’s add on a couple more inches tomorrow.

Maybe I should check out the local mets instead of wolfie's posts. lol

Hopefully we can get Lake Ontario to fire up with some nice cold air moving over it tomorrow. Time for SYR to catch up to BUF and ROC!

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Maybe I should check out the local mets instead of wolfie's posts. lol

Hopefully we can get Lake Ontario to fire up with some nice cold air moving over it tomorrow. Time for SYR to catch up to BUF and ROC!

And what post would that be?

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It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying..

US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100 :lol:

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I see nws talking about a brief burst of 3-4”/hr rates E of Ontario... I need to get up to Watertown to drop a load of salt in the am.

 I can unload in literally 30 seconds so if I am up there around 5-530am and turn and burn back south should I be ahead of it?
Thanks 

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NWS likes the south shore set up. Advisory posted. I personally think the winds are a little too strong (although forecast wind speed has been reduced). 
My best events happen with a very light N/NW/NE wind and a sagging front. Usually wind within the band will turn south. It’s a super microclimate kind of thing. 
Rochester LES is next to impossible to forecast. Been a while since we had a good one! 
This set up is best for inland- Penfield/ Wakeorth/Palmyra/Fairport. Hannibal and Syracuse too (obviously).  

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4 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Everyone winning in one way or another. Snow to date based on pivotal maps 

10DB428F-D30B-4BF5-BD29-C695D769AD3F.png

I'm having a hard time buying that map for northern Erie. KBUF has been well-placed for a few events, and they're only at 25" (as of midnight, so add maybe 1" to 1.5" to that). And I'm a few miles west of the airport and have at most 60% of their snow. If the Pivotal map is that far off IMBY, then I'm sure it's off for much of the rest of NYS. 

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50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying..

US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100 :lol:

Dude...I was joking. I was referring to all the beautiful Kuchera maps you post. Didn't mean for it to come across as a personal attack. My apologies if it did.

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4" here IMBY.  Pretty tame storm and i agree the local mets and NWS handled this well, for here.  Of course, as storms go, it was kind of a softball.  But it did seem to throw more precip to the north compared to modeling...again.

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Our attention then turns to lake effect snow. Conditions will become
marginally supportive tonight, then much more favorable on Wednesday
as a strong cold front crosses the area. Lake induced equilibrium
levels will rise steadily Wednesday morning as cold air pours into
the region, peaking at around 15K feet on both lakes. The most
favorable setup will be for just a few hours right around the time
of the cold frontal passage. During this time, deep synoptic scale
moisture will be available through a deep mixed phase layer,
supporting large dendrites. Furthermore, strong convergence along
the advancing cold front will combine with developing lake generated
bands of convergence to create a brief period of strong convergence
along the long axis of both lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night boundary layer flow quickly veers to northwest, with
heavier lake snow closely tied to upstream connections. CIPS analogs
are keying in on relatively high chances of warning criteria snow
east of both lakes Erie and Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect light, upslope snow showers through the first half of tonight
with minor accumulations along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston
Hills. By around midnight, boundary layer flow will back to the WSW,
which should allow a band to consolidate along the shoreline from
Chautauqua to southern Erie counties. This band may briefly make it
as far north as the Buffalo southtowns and far southern Genesee
County very briefly late tonight, before quickly moving back south
again by 7AM Wednesday.

A fairly strong band should briefly move southeast from southern
Erie and Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier as the lake
band merges with the advancing cold front. This may drop some brief,
heavy snowfall rates across the western Southern Tier Wednesday
morning.

The lake effect snow will then likely break up for a time from late
morning through early afternoon following the passage of the cold
front as boundary layer flow quickly veers more northwesterly.
Following this brief lull, lake effect snow will re-organize as the
upstream connection begins to develop to Lake Huron by late
afternoon. This Lake Huron connection will initially set up from
central and northern Chautauqua to western Cattaraugus late
Wednesday afternoon. The band of heaviest snow should then move
slowly southwestward as boundary layer flow continues to veer.

This is a very complex scenario given all the band movement and the
upstream connections. Warning criteria amounts will likely be
closely tied to the upstream Lake Huron connection, making placement
particularly difficult. Even so, the setup appears favorable for
warning criteria amounts when the entire event is taken as a whole.
Storm totals of 8-12 inches are expected, with a few locations
possibly exceeding 12 inches if the Lake Huron connection stays in
one spot long enough.

With this in mind, we will go with a lake effect snow warning for
Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an advisory for southern
Erie, Wyoming, and Allegany counties.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario this evening
across Wayne County. This area of snow will be relatively light
given the marginal setup. The lake snow will then move quickly east
into Oswego County late tonight, before weakening further at the
east end of the lake by daybreak. Accumulations of 2-3 inches are
possible tonight as this band moves east from Wayne to Oswego
counties.

Following a very brief lull around 10-12Z Wednesday, a band of snow
will rapidly intensify over Lake Ontario as conditions improve with
the approach of the cold front. Expect a band to rapidly intensify
early to mid morning across central Jefferson County, then settle to
the northern Tug Hill by late morning. The band may linger in this
area for just a few hours, then progress quickly south across the
rest of the Tug Hill region into Oswego County during the early
afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance such as the WRFNMM,
WRFARW, and high-res window of the Canadian RGEM suggest the band
may max out in intensity briefly across the northern half of the Tug
Hill mid to late morning, with snowfall rates possibly reaching 3-4
inches per hour briefly. This will be a short lived event, with the
band moving rapidly south and weakening during the afternoon.

Following this brief intense phase of lake effect snow, a band will
move or re-develop at the southeast corner of the lake by mid
afternoon across Wayne/N.Cayuga/S.Oswego counties. An upstream
connection to Georgian Bay is expected to develop during this time
frame. The combo Georgian Bay/Lake Ontario band will then move
westward along the south shore of Lake Ontario later Wednesday
afternoon and night as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly
with time. The Georgian Bay connection should break down later
Wednesday night, with snow becoming light but still fairly
widespread southeast of Lake Ontario.

Given the above expectations, accumulations may reach 8-12 inches
across the Tug Hill region Wednesday, with a few spots over a foot
if the band maxes out and stalls for a few hours. Fluff factor
should be ideal given the thermal profiles. After that, northwest
flow will spread 4-6 inches along the south shore from Orleans to
southern Oswego counties Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night,
including the Rochester area. Local warning amounts are not out of
the question in this area if the Georgian Bay connection stalls for
several hours.

We will go with Lake Effect Snow Warnings for Jefferson, Lewis, and
Oswego counties, primarily for the Tug Hill region Wednesday. This
will be followed by advisories along the south shore from Orleans to
Northern Cayuga counties including Rochester.

Finally, between the main areas of lake effect snow the cold front
will produce a few snow showers and snow squalls Wednesday morning
across much of the region. A spray of Lake Huron snow showers is
also likely across much of the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with relatively light accumulations away from the main lake
effect areas. Blowing snow will be common Wednesday and Wednesday
night with wind gusts up to 40 mph on the lake plains, and 30 mph
farther inland

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Upstream trends off lake Michigan have exploded over the past hour or two...and on a SW wind ahead of the Arctic front...could be wild for an hour or two in the predawn hours.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Snow is already extremely fluffy..

 

TYX_loop (50).gif

We are up to other inch or so. By the time this swings thru maybe up to 2" additional snow. Will be fun to borrow it appears! Fingers crossed.

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Upstream trends off lake Michigan have exploded over the past hour or two...and on a SW wind ahead of the Arctic front...could be wild for an hour or two in the predawn hours.


Not seeing that SW flow bro... I’m not expecting us to see anything in the way of lake effect in the metro tomorrow morning. I like the NWS call that the band will hug the lake shore and maybe get as north as Hamburg OP East Aurora for a few inches. We will probably grab an inch around the city when the front moves through with a little squall line and the initial surge of added moisture. Should be a good event for the Chautauqua Ridge finally.

6f6418a7c540959824937cba8e7a24ea.gif


.
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Nice plume developing on sort of a WNW-NW, IDK but its forming nonetheless, lol, doubt its the beginning of anything substantial but one never knows around these here parts of the State.  One of my favorite parts of the Winter Season are the passing of strong Arctic Fronts cause they cause the most havoc and tomorrow can be one of those days!

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Nice plume developing on sort of a WNW-NW, IDK but its forming nonetheless, lol, doubt its the beginning of anything substantial but one never knows around these here parts of the State.  One of my favorite parts of the Winter Season are the passing of strong Arctic Fronts cause they cause the most havoc and tomorrow can be one of those days!

Yes! Loving watching the mini-blizzards out the window and hearing all of the dramatics of the "normal" citizens... :P

Just hopefully nobody is injured and people make wise choices.

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