Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

So it looks like we will start off December with a decent snowstorm for the central and especially eastern areas of NYS.

Looks like 1-3" across WNY, 3-6" for Rochester, 6-12" for Syracuse.

Following this storm there is an interesting period on Weds where a lake enhanced setup may affect Buffalo and give them a few inches.

On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near
Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early
Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL
rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow
dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate.
By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region,
expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the
Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday
we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow.

Looking further out....

A very up and down pattern upcoming. Lots of warm ups and cool downs. No real sign of any arctic air in the forseeable future. We get some pacific help with a +PNA but we go positive for the NAO and AO with the PV on the other side of the globe. The models have been highly volatile though, so this doesn't mean much. I think weeks 2 we get a decent torch according to the CPC. Hopefully the pattern changes but it looks like we're heading into a warm MJO cycle.

 

 

[rochesterdave]

Nice write up. Thanks for what you do!

Anyway, read the early am disco from BUF, you’d hardly know there was a storm. They’re either gonna look like geniuses or morons. I give them credit for sticking to their guns- can’t be easy, especially Wayne NE.

 

Sunday night...the initial surface low will weaken in the vcnty of
the Southern Tier...while the secondary low will become better
organized off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will encourage weak cold
advection over our region to change any remaining mixed pcpn to some
light to occasionally moderate wet snow. Much of the forcing for the
pcpn Sunday night will come from being in the proximity of the upper
low and from local orographics...although areas east of the Genesee
Valley could experience a little lift from there nose of an
easterly LLJ. This will largely depend on how far off the coast
the secondary storm takes shape. In any case...most areas should
pick up an inch or two of snow Sunday night...with 2 to 4 inches
possible form the Finger Lakes eastward.

 

 

[tim123]

Roc 9 inches on euro

[wolfie09]

Yeah down from 12z for most..

Interestingly enough the off hour runs seem a lot snowier..

It also seems like parts of the coast will get in on the action..

[tim123]

Same for roc bit less for syr I think.

[wolfie09]

Euro did warm up some with the initial slug..

But gives the south shore some nice bands from the coastal..

[wolfie09]

[Syrmax]

KBGM has upped their game for this one. Totals bumped up. The 1/10 probablity is 21" at SYR.

My final call 

ROC 7"

BUF 2"

SYR  9"

BGM 13"

ALB 17"

Storm details:

We Torch->We Slot->We Rice->We Fake.   So it has always been, so shall it always be.  

[wolfie09]

This band should make it up here by 12-1 pm..

 

[96blizz]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This band should make it up here by 12-1 pm..

 

Just in time for football and a cold one with the fire on!

[tim123]

Atleast buffalo upped totals to 6 to 10 for roc area

[Luke_Mages]

24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming.

[tim123]

I am concerned someone gets alot of ice more than forecasted

[wolfie09]

6z euro looks pretty similar to 0z..

10"-12" for all of Oswego county, 12"-15" starts near Syracuse proper..15"-18' for the finger lakes..

The majority of guidance has the strongest banding rotating just south of Oswego county..

[wolfie09]

Storm Vista maps showing 6"-12" from kbuf-kroc but they do include sleet..

[vortmax]

9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming.

Uh oh. Radar looks wet, not snowy to me. 

[wolfie09]

It's this band here that the models are hammering the finger lakes with..As these bands rotate counter clockwise..

[vortmax]

[wolfie09]

This is gonna be some wet heavy stuff..

A rare event where kuchera shows less than 10-1.. Which is shown on the gfs/Nam..

[wolfie09]

Not by a significant amount but it's there..

[tim123]

My hope is once heavy precip moves in it flips to heavy snow. Rather than sleet frz rain 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

lol @ “Lot of Sleet”... 1/4” of ice here this morning... Yuck...




.

[wolfie09]

Rap with a good 5"-7' between 18z and 0z..

[WesterlyWx]

17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

lol @ “Lot of Sleet”... 1/4” of ice here this morning... Yuck...




.

Yeah ice is accreting pretty rapidly out there. There’s a really solid glaze on everything and it’s coming down pretty good with the temp holding at 27 degrees.  

[vortmax]

7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah ice is accreting pretty rapidly out there. There’s a really solid glaze on everything and it’s coming down pretty good with the temp holding at 27 degrees.  

Isn't .25"+ considered ice storm warning criteria? Or maybe .5"?

[tim123]

Not around here. .5 is I think

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming.

Yeah this poses a huge problem...just ran to the grocery store and I would've been far better off taking the hockey skates...everything and I mean everything is iced up. This could get bad for areas buffalo north.

[Syrmax]

So far things look to be on track. No snow here yet. Would be nice to get 4-6" with WAA Round 1. These usually seem to underperform but i don't think this will.

[TugHillMatt]

Got an early start from Columbus this morning. Is the Thruway road surface usually warm enough to not have issues from freezing rain? A bit nervous about that...

[wolfie09]

I thought it was the other way around lol

Wpc made that claim the other day.. WAA thumps tend to over perform unless u mix of course..