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Observations of snow, sleet, freezing rain Sun-Tue Dec 1-2-early 3


wdrag
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No offense guys, time for a reality check:

1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 

2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault

3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on your Brooklyn walkup does bad.

Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got.

South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total.

 

This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it.

It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves.

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1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense guys, time for a reality check:

1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 

2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault

3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on you Brooklyn walkup does bad.

Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got.

South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total.

 

This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it.

It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves.

What? Models this morning were showing 4-8". Some are still showing this. Even Upton just raised NYC to 4-6" sorry some strange reason. 

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1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Snowfall rates have appreciably lessened in past 30 + minutes in lower Manhattan. Visibility has gone from about 1/2 mile to well over (based on looking out my window across the river at Brooklyn). Snow has not stuck to anything.

Have some slush downtown now, but its also now more like drizzle with some flurries currently.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Where are you ?

We are going to have to pull an elephant out of a hat to make this one work. What your seeing on radar is deceiving. That’s not snow out there over the ocean and that’s why reflectivity is so high. Once it moves north and transitions to snow it equates to lower rates. I’m not saying it can’t happen, it’s tuff.

.5” round one 1.5” round two uws 

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6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense guys, time for a reality check:

1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 

2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault

3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on your Brooklyn walkup does bad.

Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got.

South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total.

 

This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it.

It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves.

To be fair, the rest of the reaity check is: this was also the only place that had numerous people claim this was going to be a cutter without redevelopment, that no one in the entire metro would see more than 1/2” (im sitting at 4 right now), and that we had already written off december in middle november. The pessimists only see the obnoxious optimistic posts and respond, and the optimists only see the contrarian pessimistic posts and respond. 

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Just now, BxEngine said:

To be fair, this was also the only place that had numerous people claim this was going to be a cutter without redevelopment, that no one in the entire metro would see more than 1/2” (im sitting at 4 right now), and that we had already written off december in middle november. The pessimists only see the obnoxious optimistic posts and respond, and the optimists only see the contrarian pessimistic posts and respond. 

And to be fair, he made that up about the models. 

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Upton

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Bands of moderate to heavy snow generated by strong mid level
fgen forcing extend from NYC up into NE NJ and Orange County.
Per earlier spotter reports these are capable of producing
between 1-2 inches per hour. Appears these bands will drift
slowly W in deep layer E flow to the N of the H7 low off the NJ
coast, then weaken this evening while additional bands redevelop
to the east this evening over CT and Long Island. Sfc obs and
radar 0.5 deg reflectivity/CC show rain/snow line just E of
Farmingdale/Huntington as colder air slowly filters eastward.
Per the above have issued a winter wx advy to cover all of
Nassau and Western Suffolk as colder air filters in and changes
precip there to snow this evening. Otherwise winter wx hazards
remain in place, with warnings farther inland and advys for NYC
metro and most of southern CT, with accums ranging from 4-6
inches in the metro area, as much as 6-10 inches north/west, and
mainly 2-4 inches from New Haven eastward. Outside chance that
as the sfc low S of Long Island redevelops farther E overnight
in response to additional QG forcing riding northward up the E
side of the upper low, redeveloping snow bands on the back
side of the low could also bring higher amts to the forks of
Long Island where 1-2 inches have been fcst.

.

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