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Hoosier

December 2019 Discussion

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5 hours ago, DAFF said:

Gut says, Bo will be hunkered in for a bit yet... Pace of life, is parallel to your surroundings.

I'm am pretty snowed in up here... haven't been to town since Wednesday.  Models were pretty consistent in showing snowfall in feet around here.

Received 16-17" as a storm total here, and I see MQT recorded pretty close to the same with 16.5" last night and today.  I've had nearly 40" the past 5 days and my two snow stakes are measuring 32 and 34 inches otg.  Winter so far seems to be picking up right where last year left off.

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About ~3.2" fell last night at YYZ (still snowing). This doesn't include the 1.2" that fell yesterday. 

Not a total bust, but the PL yesterday certainly put a dent on what could have been a 4-6" snowstorm (prior to last night's snowfall).

 

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26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

About ~3.2" fell last night at YYZ (still snowing). This doesn't include the 1.2" that fell yesterday. 

Not a total bust, but the PL yesterday certainly put a dent on what could have been a 4-6" snowstorm (prior to last night's snowfall).

 

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low).

Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.

 

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7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low).

Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.

 

I arrived back from Nicaragua yesterday in the height of the snow/ice pellets. The board had a lot of cancellations and delays, I was thankful we arrived pretty much on time. Im just catching up on everything and looking at models to see how the next few weeks leading up to christmas will be. Heading to NYC to visit a few friends next weekend so I wouldnt mind if there was no snowstorms on those dates haha.

I hope everything is well with you as well. 

 

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Average snowfall for ORD at the end of December is 9.6" Thats probably close to where you will be by the end of the month for a seasonal total. Especially since 1st half of the month looks to be a shut out.

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On 12/2/2019 at 11:05 AM, Toronto4 said:

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low).

Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.

 

I agree, great start to the season! YYZ now up to 31.6cm (12.4"). 

I am doing great, hope you are as well! :) Hoping for another exciting season. 

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4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Average snowfall for ORD at the end of December is 9.6" Thats probably close to where you will be by the end of the month for a seasonal total. Especially since 1st half of the month looks to be a shut out.

Come on, where is the optimism?  :(

I will take the over and say that ORD will be comfortably into double digits by the end of the month.  

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Come on, where is the optimism?  :(

I will take the over and say that ORD will be comfortably into double digits by the end of the month.  

What makes you think that? Especially seeing as it is likely we more or less lose the first 10-15 days of the month. Long range looks slightly better, but even still it doesn’t even look that great, just seasonable. Though even seasonable is something significant considering the run of poor Decembers we’re on.

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11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

What makes you think that? Especially seeing as it is likely we more or less lose the first 10-15 days of the month. Long range looks slightly better, but even still it doesn’t even look that great, just seasonable. Though even seasonable is something significant considering the run of poor Decembers we’re on.

I think we will be less prone to mildups as the month wears on.  In general, with cold comes an increased risk of snow, although it can certainly still snow even in a warmer pattern.  To me it's going to almost take a perfect storm of everything going wrong in the next 4 weeks for ORD to not increase its snow total by a substantial amount.

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52 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think we will be less prone to mildups as the month wears on.  In general, with cold comes an increased risk of snow, although it can certainly still snow even in a warmer pattern.  To me it's going to almost take a perfect storm of everything going wrong in the next 4 weeks for ORD to not increase its snow total by a substantial amount.

The past 4-5 winters say hello:devilsmiley:

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On 11/30/2019 at 11:45 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2016 was colder than average here. This post made me look at the cold season months this decade at Detroit to see how many were colder than average and how many were warmer than average. To keep it simple, 0.1° either way is either colder or warmer than average, I did not do any of that 1゚ within normal type of stuff.

 

 Not surprisingly, December is the black sheep for cold anomalies. Averages exist for a reason, sometimes it's above, sometimes it's below. Cold season months more often than not finished colder than avg this decade.

2010s

Nov 6 cold, 4 mild

Dec 4 cold, 6 mild (ASSUMING 2019 is mild)

Jan 6 cold, 4 mild

Feb 5 cold, 5 mild

Mar 7 cold, 3 mild

Apr 6 cold, 4 mild

I really feel this one's going to end up being BN, thus we'll have a 5-5 split for the decade. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Come on, where is the optimism?  :(

I will take the over and say that ORD will be comfortably into double digits by the end of the month.  

I guess close to 9.6" means within a few inches. If were sitting at 11.2" at end of the month I wont feel the prediction was wrong. If were sitting at 17-20" then yes.

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I really feel this one's going to end up being BN, thus we'll have a 5-5 split for the decade. 

 I broke my golden rule by assuming it was mild based on the talk lol. Who knows what's gonna happen, the models change daily.

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16 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I guess close to 9.6" means within a few inches. If were sitting at 11.2" at end of the month I wont feel the prediction was wrong. If were sitting at 17-20" then yes.

Fair enough

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

the mild talk is lol

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). 

zzz for the foreseeable future.

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27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). 

zzz for the foreseeable future.

tth

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9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Euro looks mild and boring - yuck!

 

 

20191203 12z_Euro Snowfall mean_h360.png

Okay look for an ensemble product.  At least not suggestive of a perpetual warm disaster without opportunities to snow.  

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Snow % of normal up to this date. This is a large amount of snowfall across the country. Weather enthusiasts (on this discussion board) Chicago, eastern Iowa, the Northeast, and the Mountain West discussion group have quite a bit above normal. A relatively small amount of snow in Tennessee and a few southern areas appear as a >750% of normal snowfall.  I wonder what the meteorological winter will hold for us.

83sbIRV.png

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Looking good for 2-4" across much of the GTA into Hamilton tomorrow as a clipper passes on thru. Going to be a messy morning commute. Potential is there for lake enhancement with 4-5" in some localized areas. 

 

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14 hours ago, Chinook said:

Snow % of normal up to this date. This is a large amount of snowfall across the country. Weather enthusiasts (on this discussion board) Chicago, eastern Iowa, the Northeast, and the Mountain West discussion group have quite a bit above normal. A relatively small amount of snow in Tennessee and a few southern areas appear as a >750% of normal snowfall.  I wonder what the meteorological winter will hold for us.

83sbIRV.png

Hey, you can see the local sort of screw zone in my area.  :P

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18 hours ago, Chinook said:

Snow % of normal up to this date. This is a large amount of snowfall across the country. Weather enthusiasts (on this discussion board) Chicago, eastern Iowa, the Northeast, and the Mountain West discussion group have quite a bit above normal. A relatively small amount of snow in Tennessee and a few southern areas appear as a >750% of normal snowfall.  I wonder what the meteorological winter will hold for us.

83sbIRV.png

I find these all encompassing snow maps to be wrong more often than not (usually on the light side). For example, it shows mby at 125%  of normal when I'm actually at 300%. 

Also, all major reporting locales across NMI are reporting a surplus so the large area of yellow there is highly suspect as well:  https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

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Magnitude of the cold shot next week seems to be backing off a bit.  Lack of snow cover with southward extent once you get into most of IA, IL, etc won't help either. 

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